Here Languish Stands game thread

[Viking]

Thos eprobabilities aren't independent though

Eh?

These are the chances of success given the present setup. What do you mean by "independent"?

[sbr]

+1 to St. Pete's.  Not that that help anyone.

And I am at work tonight so no file.

[Maximus]

Thos eprobabilities aren't independent though

Eh?

These are the chances of success given the present setup. What do you mean by "independent"?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_(probability_theory)
Those probabilities are correct for the first attempt, but each success changes the probabilities of the rest.

[Viking]

Thos eprobabilities aren't independent though

Eh?

These are the chances of success given the present setup. What do you mean by "independent"?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_(probability_theory)
Those probabilities are correct for the first attempt, but each success changes the probabilities of the rest.

Well, yes, these were initial odds. Success at bristol or london can increase other odds. I did the math for secondary attempts, but all the odds I got for secondary attempts were poorer than the best initial chances. But, given the miserable odds of hitting when he loses ties, I don't expect him to have any hope of getting one or more hit.

[sbr]

Well if someone would just give me a new pope.

[Maximus]

Well, yes, these were initial odds. Success at bristol or london can increase other odds. I did the math for secondary attempts, but all the odds I got for secondary attempts were poorer than the best initial chances. But, given the miserable odds of hitting when he loses ties, I don't expect him to have any hope of getting one or more hit.

Yea it doesn't look very good for him.

So is Tamas up?

[Viking]

Well, yes, these were initial odds. Success at bristol or london can increase other odds. I did the math for secondary attempts, but all the odds I got for secondary attempts were poorer than the best initial chances. But, given the miserable odds of hitting when he loses ties, I don't expect him to have any hope of getting one or more hit.

Yea it doesn't look very good for him.

So is Tamas up?

He needs net 1 hit to keep you from winning. He has three cards you have one. It's pretty pathetic when it comes down to last chances to stop your from winning. If you end this turn with 24.5 points you are sooooo getting screwed next turn.

[Solmyr]

I blame Tamas for sticking to his deal (presumably) and playing Monasteries.

[Tamas]

I pass out the turn.

[sbr]

So England with one card is up, then France with one card.

[Maximus]

pass

[ulmont]

pass

[Viking]

sigh, can we get this over with?

[sbr]

Another +1 to St Pete's.

I fixed Shrewsbury but that still leaves England with 25 VPs by my count.

You still passing Tamas?

[Viking]

Another +1 to St Pete's.

I fixed Shrewsbury but that still leaves England with 25 VPs by my count.

You still passing Tamas?

You need one more.