Syria Disintegrating: Part 2

[Viking]

Haunting 8 minute Apocalypse Now in Homs walking tour:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSiwZR9Tcc4

Stuff like this really kills the effect, my first reaction, the one I usually have when I go to an arab city (outside the oil fueled gulf) is fucking arabs, can't keep the street clean and can't maintain their buildings. If not for the bullet holes and burned out cars my only reaction there would have been where are all the people and fucking arabs, can't keep the street clean.

[Sheilbh]

Oh I doubt very much doubt that the Syrians would mind getting a little help from whomever.  The Libyan resistance fighters didn't lose any face from the Western intervention; it was still Libyans fighting and taking the ground; the western help just helped even the playing field against a regime that controlled heavy armor/air/etc.

But I think they're very different situations.  Libya's revolution looked to be on the edge of total collapse without Western support (in part I think this was shaped by Libya's geography as much as anything).  By contrast, though this could change, the Syrian rebels have held on for over a year and have now managed to strike the heart of the regime.  From what I understand they've also seized all major border crossings.  Given all of their relative success and that the regime looks at its weakest I think Western intervention would now be a deus ex machina.

That situation could change and the regime could manage to reassert some form of control, or could try to hold out in the Alawite heartland.

Since the assassinations Nasrallah's held a rally and sent his condolences to the victims - which shows just how far Hezbullah are going to support this regime.  The Druze (and Christians) in Syria have always been divided on the revolution, some major families have supported the regime while others have supported the revolution.  Walid Jumblatt who is, if nothing else, a relatively reliable weather vane has moved from quiet support for the revolution to calling for all Druze and Alawite's to join the revolt.

[MadImmortalMan]

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012-07-23/Syria-violence-rebels/56425402/1

Syria says it will use chemical weapons if attacked

ONLY if attacked by a third party, apparently. Or, you know, if they get desperate enough.

[Razgovory]

Looks like Shelf was right, and I was wrong.  The government there seems to be in serious trouble.  I thought they were going to be able to handle this.  Apparently not.

[Admiral Yi]

Looks like Shelf was right

As was Yi.

Go ahead, it won't kill you.

[CountDeMoney]

Go ahead, it won't kill you.

It is, however, a pain worse than death.

[jimmy olsen]

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012-07-23/Syria-violence-rebels/56425402/1

Syria says it will use chemical weapons if attacked

ONLY if attacked by a third party, apparently. Or, you know, if they get desperate enough.

Don't they claim lots of rebels are actually foreign fighters?

[Razgovory]

Looks like Shelf was right

As was Yi.

Go ahead, it won't kill you.

Sure.  Yi was right.

[Tamas]

I am reading that the Syrian airforce has been flying missions against the rebels. Looks like there WAS one more step in the escalation process.

[jimmy olsen]

Heavy fighting going down in Damascus and Aleppo.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/07/25/12942692-total-warfare-syrias-assad-sends-armored-column-to-aleppo?lite

Syria sent thousands of troops surging toward Aleppo in the early hours of Wednesday, where its forces have been pounding rebel fighters from the air, engulfing the country's largest city in total warfare to put down a revolt.

"[President Bashar] Assad is fighting hard here because he has already lost control of nearly all the towns around Aleppo," NBC News' chief foreign correspondent Richard Engel said from the city's outskirts on Tuesday.

Recent days have seen Syria's 16-month-old uprising transformed from an insurgency in remote provinces into a battle for control of the two main cities, Aleppo and the slightly smaller capital, Damascus, where fighting exploded last week.

President Bashar Assad's forces have launched massive counter assaults in both cities. They appear to have beaten rebels back from neighborhoods in the capital and are turning toward Aleppo, a commercial hub in the north.

Syrian forces fired artillery and rocket barrages early on Wednesday at the northern Damascus suburb of al-Tel in an attempt to seize the town from rebels, causing mass panic and forcing hundreds of families to flee the area, residents and opposition activists said.

The 216th mechanized battalion headquartered near Tel started bombarding the town of about 100,000 people at 3:15 a.m. (8:15 p.m. ET Tuesday) and initial reports indicated residential apartment blocks were being hit, they said.

"Military helicopters are flying now over the town. People were awakened by the sound of explosions and are running away," Rafe Alam, one of the activists, said by phone from a hill overlooking Tel. "Electricity and telephones have been cut off."

Jets firing?
Some residents said they believed the planes had dropped bombs, but others said booming sounds could have been caused by supersonic jets breaking the sound barrier. A correspondent for Britain's BBC television also said the jets had fired on parts of the city.

Assad's forces have occasionally launched airstrikes from fixed-wing jets on other cities during the uprising, but tend to rely on helicopters for airstrikes in urban areas.

Opposition activists said thousands of troops had withdrawn with their tanks and armored vehicles from the strategic Jabal al-Zawiya highlands in Idlib province near the Turkish border and were headed toward Aleppo.

Rebels attacked the rear of the troops withdrawing from the region at the villages of Orom al-Joz and Rami near the main Aleppo-Latakia road and at the village of al-Bara west of the Aleppo-Damascus highway, activist Abdelrahman Bakran said from the area.

A first? Helicopter gunships bombard Syrian capital
In Aleppo, helicopters swirled overhead firing missiles throughout Tuesday, residents said. Rebels were battling government forces by the gates of the historic old city. Troops fired mortars and shells at rebels armed with rifles and machine guns.

"I heard at least 20 rockets fired, I think from helicopters, and also a lot of machine-gun fire," a resident near one of the areas being shelled, who asked to be identified only by his first name Omar, said by telephone.

"Almost everyone has fled in panic, even my family. I have stayed to try to stop the looters; we hear they often come after an area is shelled."

General speaks
Meanwhile, a Syrian former Brigadier-General spoke for the first time since defecting earlier in July.

In a statement broadcast Arabic news channel Al Arabiya, Manaf Tlas called on Syrians to unite.

"I speak to you as a defected member of the Syrian army, who refuses criminal violence ... I speak to you as one of the sons of Syria," Tlas said.  He was believed to be speaking from Paris where he has family.

"Honorable Syrian army officers do not accept the criminal acts in Syria ... Allow me to serve Syria after [President Bashar] al-Assad's era." he said.

Tlas' defection was a significant blow to Assad and his government. While Tlas is from Syria's majority Sunni community -- Assad and much of his inner circle are Alawite, an offshoot of Shiite Islam -- he was reportedly part of the president's inner circle for many years.
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"We must all unite to serve Syria and promote stability in the country, rebuilding a free and democratic Syria," Al Arabiya quoted Tlas as saying.

"Allow me to call on a united Syria," he added.

Tlas also said he did not blame those troops who have not defected, adding that "whatever mistakes made by some members of the Syrian Arab Army ... those honorable troops who have not partaken in the killing ... are the extension of the (rebel) Free Syrian Army."

Chemical weapons safe?
Also on Wednesday, Moscow said it had received "firm assurances" from Damascus that its Syrian chemical arsenal is "fully safeguarded," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov told the state-owned Itar-Tass news agency.

"We have received firm assurances from Damascus that the security of this arsenal is fully safeguarded," Gatilov told the agency in an interview.

Syrian Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi acknowledged on Monday that the country had chemical weapons, and Western countries and Israel have expressed fears chemical weapons could fall into the hands of militant groups as Assad's authority erodes.

Israel, which has publicly discussed military action to keep Syrian chemical arms or missiles out the hands of Assad's Lebanese militant allies Hezbollah, said there was no sign any such diversion had occurred.

"At the moment, the entire non-conventional weapons system is under the full control of the regime," a senior Israeli defense official, Amos Gilad, told Israel Radio. 

[KRonn]

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012-07-23/Syria-violence-rebels/56425402/1

Syria says it will use chemical weapons if attacked

ONLY if attacked by a third party, apparently. Or, you know, if they get desperate enough.

Don't they claim lots of rebels are actually foreign fighters?

Yeah, I'm seeing reports of that. No surprise but no real hard info. Seems the US and others talking about getting assistance in, if they decide to do so, don't really know who is who among the Rebels. You'd think after over a year of fighting we'd have an idea of all that, their leaders and such.

[The Minsky Moment]

[But I think they're very different situations.  Libya's revolution looked to be on the edge of total collapse without Western support (in part I think this was shaped by Libya's geography as much as anything).  By contrast, though this could change, the Syrian rebels have held on for over a year and have now managed to strike the heart of the regime.  From what I understand they've also seized all major border crossings.  Given all of their relative success and that the regime looks at its weakest I think Western intervention would now be a deus ex machina.

The notion the the Syrian revolt is much stronger than the Libyan revolt flies in the fact of the fact that the Syrian one has been going for twice as long and yet the rebels are still very disorganized and control very little in actual ground.  It is true that Libyan rebels were in danger of being very badly bloodied a few times, but that is only because very early on they matured beyond where the Syrians are now and were able to deploy large pseudo-conventional formations into the field.  The syrian rebels can't do that (one of the reasons being lack of heavy weapons and vulnerability to air strike).

The Syrian rebels are getting some considerable aid and assistance, mostly from the Gulf.  Exactly what conditionality is attached to that assistance is obscure, but I am not reasssured by the obscurity,.  There is grumbling between rival rebel groupings about competing to secure access to Gulf aid.  Of course adding an alternative channel would not necessarily improve matters . . .

[CountDeMoney]

The Syrian rebels are getting some considerable aid and assistance, mostly from the Gulf.  Exactly what conditionality is attached to that assistance is obscure, but I am not reasssured by the obscurity,.  There is grumbling between rival rebel groupings about competing to secure access to Gulf aid.  Of course adding an alternative channel would not necessarily improve matters . . .

Iran continuing to ship arms to the Syrian government, assisting them with selling their oil to China, and allowing both Hezbollah forces and Quds boots on the ground is not helping matters any.

NATO needs to start blockading and bombing shit, regardless of the status of the rebels.  It doesn't have to be in coordination with the rebels themselves--since that would be impossible at this time anyway--but these external actors need to be substantially minimized. Iran is making a mockery of the sanctions, as usual.

[jimmy olsen]

Looks like the Syrians are gearing up to lay the hammer down in Aleppo.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/07/26/12963787-us-official-syrian-regime-seems-to-be-readying-for-massacre?lite

[citizen k]

"The regime tried to send its army to Aleppo, but less than a third managed to reach it. Yesterday alone we destroyed more than 30 armored vehicles,"

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18563_162-57481075/syrian-rebel-we-will-end-assads-enslavement