Syria Disintegrating: Part 2

[Duque de Bragança]

At the very least, taking advantage of the Russian focus on Ukraine, yes. Also, the casualties sustained by Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Nick Heras, an analyst with the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, said the rebels were "trying to pre-empt the possibility of a Syrian military campaign in the region of Aleppo, which Russian and Syrian government airstrikes against rebel areas have been preparing for".

With some Turkey-backed factions joining the offensive, he said, "Ankara is sending a message to both Damascus and Moscow to back down from their military efforts in north-west Syria".

(...)

Heras said rebel forces "are in a better position to take and seize villages than Russian-backed Syrian government forces, while the Iranians are focused on Lebanon".

The Syrian jihadists and their allies launched their attack the day the Lebanon-Israel truce came into effect. Haid Haid, an analyst, said the rebels had been "planning for this offensive for quite a while". But "if the rebel forces waited too long the regime would have been able to reinforce their frontlines as Hezbollah forces are no longer busy with the war in Lebanon"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/28/syrian-insurgents-cut-damascus-aleppo-highway-amid-fresh-offensive

[Legbiter]

Those Islamist simians advancing and taking Aleppo is not great news for the locals but nothing good happens in that part of the world anyway.

[Sheilbh]

I feel like Erdogan is the world leader who just calls Putin's bluff and exploits Russian weakness and, typically, finds it is just bluff. A few times in Syria, in Libya, in the Caucasus. And as Russia needs to expend more and more in Ukraine, is likely to benefit from just rolling up Russian presence elsewhere.

[Barrister]

Those Islamist simians advancing and taking Aleppo is not great news for the locals but nothing good happens in that part of the world anyway.

Can we please avoid slurs like calling people monkeys?

[crazy canuck]

Those Islamist simians advancing and taking Aleppo is not great news for the locals but nothing good happens in that part of the world anyway.

Can we please avoid slurs like calling people monkeys?

+1

[Duque de Bragança]

Those Islamist simians advancing and taking Aleppo is not great news for the locals but nothing good happens in that part of the world anyway.

Can we please avoid slurs like calling people monkeys?

+1

It's unfair for the monkeys, to be honest.

[Legbiter]

It's unfair for the monkeys, to be honest.

Yeah I meant no disrespect to the noble simian order. 

Nor the tarsiers.

[The Minsky Moment]

Wow.
Didn't expect any movement there. I thought the regular opposition was basically beaten now and just held on sort of in a few fringe places.

Assad basically lost control of the north of the country.  The Kurds took control of much of it and Turkey intervened to keep the Kurds out of the rest, giving control to these motley Islamists.

But the issue isn't so much how weak the opposition is but how weak they are compared to government forces. Aleppo is isolated in the northern part of the country, surrounded by anti-government forces and far from the regime center in Damascus. There is basically one line of communications running from Damascus through Homs and Hama.  In the Civil War, Assad was only able to reassert control because of massive Russian assistance and thousands of Hezbollah fighters.  Now the Russians are busy in Ukraine and Hezbollah has been flattened by the IDF.  That leaves regime forces, and if we assume Assad keeps his core loyalists nearby in Damascus, that doesn't leave much to hold down things in the north.

[viper37]

At the very least, taking advantage of the Russian focus on Ukraine, yes. Also, the casualties sustained by Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Nick Heras, an analyst with the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, said the rebels were "trying to pre-empt the possibility of a Syrian military campaign in the region of Aleppo, which Russian and Syrian government airstrikes against rebel areas have been preparing for".

With some Turkey-backed factions joining the offensive, he said, "Ankara is sending a message to both Damascus and Moscow to back down from their military efforts in north-west Syria".

(...)

Heras said rebel forces "are in a better position to take and seize villages than Russian-backed Syrian government forces, while the Iranians are focused on Lebanon".

The Syrian jihadists and their allies launched their attack the day the Lebanon-Israel truce came into effect. Haid Haid, an analyst, said the rebels had been "planning for this offensive for quite a while". But "if the rebel forces waited too long the regime would have been able to reinforce their frontlines as Hezbollah forces are no longer busy with the war in Lebanon"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/28/syrian-insurgents-cut-damascus-aleppo-highway-amid-fresh-offensive

There's nothing to worry about.  We've been assured that Trump will fix all of this on January 21st (I give him a day after inauguration, since I'm not a fan of the man; his most ardent supporters believe he has already fixed everything).

[Legbiter]

Things are looking very bad for Assad and the russians need to decide very quickly if they want to rush in forces to try and save their Syrian holdings.  

[Duque de Bragança]

At the very least, taking advantage of the Russian focus on Ukraine, yes. Also, the casualties sustained by Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Nick Heras, an analyst with the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, said the rebels were "trying to pre-empt the possibility of a Syrian military campaign in the region of Aleppo, which Russian and Syrian government airstrikes against rebel areas have been preparing for".

With some Turkey-backed factions joining the offensive, he said, "Ankara is sending a message to both Damascus and Moscow to back down from their military efforts in north-west Syria".

(...)

Heras said rebel forces "are in a better position to take and seize villages than Russian-backed Syrian government forces, while the Iranians are focused on Lebanon".

The Syrian jihadists and their allies launched their attack the day the Lebanon-Israel truce came into effect. Haid Haid, an analyst, said the rebels had been "planning for this offensive for quite a while". But "if the rebel forces waited too long the regime would have been able to reinforce their frontlines as Hezbollah forces are no longer busy with the war in Lebanon"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/28/syrian-insurgents-cut-damascus-aleppo-highway-amid-fresh-offensive

There's nothing to worry about.  We've been assured that Trump will fix all of this on January 21st (I give him a day after inauguration, since I'm not a fan of the man; his most ardent supporters believe he has already fixed everything).

Make it two, he will have to use a day for Ukraine as well. He will rest on the 7th day after ending all wars with a biggly deal. 

[Barrister]

There's nothing to worry about.  We've been assured that Trump will fix all of this on January 21st (I give him a day after inauguration, since I'm not a fan of the man; his most ardent supporters believe he has already fixed everything).

He actually said he'd have it all taken care of before he was even inaugurated.

[Habbaku]

Seems like Russia might be getting close to cutting bait. 

[PJL]

Seems like Russia might be getting close to cutting bait. 

Looks like it if they're advising their nationals to leave Syria. Not a move to make if you wanted to support the regime no matter what. Not a good sign for Assad either. Other than Hezbollah militias who aren't exactly in the best shape after the Israeli incursion there is little help forthcoming elsewhere either. Get the feeling of when rather than if Assad falls.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

The Russian Navy apparently already bugged out of Tartus.  Russian Air Force is still active, but who knows for how long