Syria Disintegrating: Part 2

[Habbaku]

[Duque de Bragança]

I guess the US being a Russian vassal state will avert WW3 for now, but I do feel sorry for the Kurds.

Back to business as usual, Kurds always get used by others and then shafted at the end.

[Admiral Yi]

I think it's a defensible move.  We originally became involved in Syria ostensibly to defeat ISIS.  That has been 90% completed.  Mission-creep was pushing us to become a player in the 12-sided civil/proxy war.

And if Bolton looks like a doofus because of it, that's a bonus.

[mongers]

Turkey's chance now to be a major power embroiled in Syria for years on end?

[Tamas]

Turkey's chance now to be a major power embroiled in Syria for years on end?

I do wonder if Iran or Russia can possibly get anything more out of Syria this way that they don't already have. I doubt US troops could remove their influence by being there. So apart from green lighting the coming destruction of the Kurds I don't mind the move.

And Turkey is especially welcome to try and play Ottoman Empire in the Syrian mess while their economy is on the brink of ruin.

[Razgovory]

I'm fine with it.

[Duque de Bragança]

Turkey's chance now to be a major power embroiled in Syria for years on end?

I do wonder if Iran or Russia can possibly get anything more out of Syria this way that they don't already have. I doubt US troops could remove their influence by being there. So apart from green lighting the coming destruction of the Kurds I don't mind the move.

And Turkey is especially welcome to try and play Ottoman Empire in the Syrian mess while their economy is on the brink of ruin.

Sure, it's not like Turkey has leverage on Europe with "migrants".

[jimmy olsen]

Trump's dementia is getting ridiculous

.Russia, Iran, Syria & many others are not happy about the U.S. leaving, despite what the Fake News says, because now they will have to fight ISIS and others, who they hate, without us. I am building by far the most powerful military in the world. ISIS hits us they are doomed!

18.8K
9:16 PM - Dec 20, 2018

[Liep]

Putin just said in his yearly press conference today that he thinks it's a good decision by Trump, at least a full hour before that tweet.

[Syt]

"they will have to fight ISIS"

I thought ISIS is defeated?

[Tamas]

"they will have to fight ISIS"

I thought ISIS is defeated?

Your rigidity toward what's true and what's not from one hour to the next will leave you behind the times, Syt.

[The Minsky Moment]

There is a Trumpian logic to this. Trump prizes unpredictability and doing something without warning that contradicts announced policy fits nicely within that. He doesn't like paying for troops overseas. He likes being able to declare victory and claim "promises kept," much more than having an actual victory. He is not interested in policy and thus the tension between this move and the US anti-Iranian policy is not a concern.

It's pointless to talk about whether it's a good move because how does one evaluate a troop withdrawal (or commitment) without an understanding of the strategic context?  Trump has no strategy, no policy and thus there is no context to evaluate.

Like Yi the idea of egg on Bolton's face makes me smile in the abstract.  But in the concrete Bolton is out there as the official voice of US foreign policy.  I don't like that voice but IMO it's not a great improvement to have Bolton declaring what policy is while Trump takes actions without consultation in derogation of that policy. This kind of unpredictability doesn't deter or intimidate foes and competitors, it just confuses the hell out of allies.  To the extent we still have allies . . .

EDIT: the other context in which this move makes perfect sense is if you assume Trump accepts the Putin view of the world of traditional Great Power politics and spheres of influence, and that Trump has agreed to cede Syria and Lebanon to the Russian sphere. His otherwise mystifying tweet makes more sense viewed that way. i

[Duque de Bragança]

One of the Syrian Kurd leaders warned against a likely loss of control over foreign jihadis held by by Syrian Turks in case of a Turkish offensive. Not to mention withdrawing from the battle against Daesh.
I guess that's one way to get support from France and other European countries now that Trump pulls out.

[Tamas]

One of the Syrian Kurd leaders warned against a likely loss of control over foreign jihadis held by by Syrian Turks in case of a Turkish offensive. Not to mention withdrawing from the battle against Daesh.
I guess that's one way to get support from France and other European countries now that Trump pulls out.

If there's no desire to get behind the Kurds and give them a proper state so they won't be constantly fucked up by all their overlords, then it is better to just pull out and leave the bloody mess to the various dictators. Good luck trying to get any use out of the country in the next 20 years. And Syria was a Soviet/Russian satellite anyways, so it's just going back to status quo, except Turkey and Iran will also have a say. Putin is welcome to sort that out.

It just should not have been done this sudden way.

[Syt]

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/13/politics/trump-turkey-kurds/index.html

Trump threatens to 'devastate' Turkey's economy if they attack Kurds in Syria

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

Starting the long overdue pullout from Syria while hitting the little remaining ISIS territorial caliphate hard, and from many directions. Will attack again from existing nearby base if it reforms. Will devastate Turkey economically if they hit Kurds. Create 20 mile safe zone....

....Likewise, do not want the Kurds to provoke Turkey. Russia, Iran and Syria have been the biggest beneficiaries of the long term U.S. policy of destroying ISIS in Syria - natural enemies. We also benefit but it is now time to bring our troops back home. Stop the ENDLESS WARS!