Syria Disintegrating: Part 2

[Razgovory]

This is more serious.  Turkey is NATO and if sufficiently provoked could theoretically invoke article five of the treaty.  Pretty much all Western countries would be legally bound to fight the Russians.

Russia is betting that even if it comes to that, the rest of NATO would find ways to refuse action, putting a dent in NATO (as in, who will be next?).

Yeah that's true.  Hell, Germany would probably refuse a call to arms if Russia attacked Germany

"They are just retaking land lost to Western Imperialism in 1989."

[DGuller]

This is more serious.  Turkey is NATO and if sufficiently provoked could theoretically invoke article five of the treaty.  Pretty much all Western countries would be legally bound to fight the Russians.

Russia is betting that even if it comes to that, the rest of NATO would find ways to refuse action, putting a dent in NATO (as in, who will be next?).

Yeah that's true.  Hell, Germany would probably refuse a call to arms if Russia attacked Germany

"They are just retaking land lost to Western Imperialism in 1989."

[Valmy]

Yeah that's true.  Hell, Germany would probably refuse a call to arms if Russia attacked Germany

"They are just retaking land lost to Western Imperialism in 1989."

The truth. It hurts.

[Syt]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34450827

Syria conflict: Turkey summons Russian ambassador a second time

Turkey has again summoned the Russian ambassador after a second violation of its airspace by a Russian warplane operating in Syria in two days.

It did the same after the first violation on Saturday, after which two Turkish F-16 jets were scrambled.

Turkey said the second violation occurred on Sunday.

[...]

http://europe.newsweek.com/syrian-rebel-groups-appeal-regional-alliance-fight-russia-iran-334126

Syrian Rebel Groups Appeal For Regional Alliance to Fight Russia and Iran

Forty-one Syrian rebel groups have appealed to regional states to form a coalition against Russia and Iran, following their intervention in the country and continued support for Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime, according to a joint statement released on Monday seen by Reuters.

Last week, Russia began an airstrike campaign in Syria, supposedly targeting the militant group ISIS in the country. However, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov admitted on Thursday that Moscow was also targeting other "well-known groups" considered to be legitimate targets by the Assad regime. Lebanese sources told Reuters on Friday that hundreds of Shiite Iranian troops had also arrived in Syria to assist the Syrian army in its battle against insurgent groups.

The collective of rebel factions party to the joint statement include the umbrella group of the Free Syrian Army (which is backed by the United States), the Islamist Ahrar al-Sham (The Free Men of Syria) group and the Jaish al-Islam group that is part of the wider Islamic Front coalition fighting the Assad regime. The dozens of other rebel groups to sign the statement, which was sent to Reuters by Ahrar al-Sham, are yet to be disclosed.

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The U.S. does not currently list Ahrar al-Sham or Jaish al-Islam as terrorist organizations. Radical jihadi groups the Islamic State (ISIS), which has been fighting the rebel groups in northern Syria, and the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front—both designated as terrorist organizations by the U.S.—were not party to the statement. Ahrar al-Sham and the Nusra Front are both members of the coalition that captured Idlib province from the Syrian army last month.

The militants said that regional cooperation was required to defeat "the Russian-Iranian alliance occupying Syria" but did not name the states that it wished to join such a coalition. The rebel groups also condemned Russian airstrikes they say have targeted civilians in north-western Syria.

"Russia jumped in to rescue the Assad regime after it was clinically dead, in order to prevent it from suffering a sweeping defeat," the statement said, according to regional publication Middle East Eye.

"Civilians have been directly targeted in a manner that reminds us of the scorched earth policy pursued by Russia in its past wars," it continued.

The groups added that Russia's intervention and "brutal occupation has cut the road to any political solution."

"This new reality makes it imperative that regional countries, and allies in particular, hasten to form a regional alliance in the face of the Russian-Iranian alliance of occupation."

Iran has long been a supporter of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, providing him with weapons and financial support against the rebel groups. It has also sent military advisers to train the Syrian army and hundreds of Iranian troops to fight alongside Assad's forces. Tehran uses its support of the Assad regime and Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah to boost its influence in the Levant region, serving as a bulwark to the regional influence of its Sunni rival, Saudi Arabia.

Despite the rebel groups not naming who they wish to join an alliance against Iran and Russia, a number of Sunni states have supported Syrian rebel groups during the fight to topple Assad throughout the Syrian civil war, including Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, as well as individual financiers from Kuwait. Rebels and anonymous officials told The Independent in May that Saudi Arabia was providing arms and funds to Islamist rebel groups in Syria with Turkey easing their passage to the insurgents.

Russia's intervention in the Syrian civil war, now in its fifth year, has also reignited the ire of other Sunni Islamist groups. Despite not signing the joint statement, the Nusra Front, one of the biggest jihadi groups in Syria, compared Russia's involvement to when Islamists battled Soviet occupying forces during the Afghanistan War in the 1980s.

A prominent jihadi cleric linked to the Nusra Front recalled Russia's war in Afghanistan on Friday, warning that Syria will become a "graveyard for invaders," the Associated Press reported.

"Oh Russian people, did you forget the Afghan quagmire? Do you want to enter a new quagmire? The people of the Levant will stand up to you," Abdullah al-Muhaysini, a Saudi militant based in Syria, said in a video statement.

On Thursday, Abu Hassan al-Kuwaiti, another influential figure within the group, issued a bounty worth three million Syrian pounds ($15,900) for the capture of a Russian soldier in the country.

[jimmy olsen]

What the hell

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/nato-warns-russia-over-unacceptable-airspace-violations-n439151

Russia's violations of Turkish airspace appear to be deliberate, NATO's chief said Tuesday after the second such reported incident in as many days.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the incursions were "unacceptable" and called on Moscow to "avoid escalating tensions" with the U.S.-led alliance, adding: "Russia must deconflict its military activities in Syria."

He said that an initial assessment of the incidents indicated "that it doesn't look like an accident."

The United States and NATO denounced Russia over the incidents late Monday, raising the prospect of direct confrontation between the former Cold War adversaries.

Secretary of State John Kerry said it illustrated concerns about an escalated Syrian conflict.

"Had Turkey responded ... it could have resulted in a shootdown, and it is precisely the kind of thing we warned against," Kerry said.

[Tamas]

I remember the movie Threads started with people going about their daily lives vaguley listening and promptly ignoring news like these.

[Syt]

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-volunteers-likely-to-fight-in-syria/537145.html

Russian Volunteers Likely to Fight in Syria

Russian volunteers who have honed their combat skills in Ukraine are likely to travel to Syria to fight alongside the forces of President Bashar Assad, Admiral Vladimir Komoyedov, the head of the Russian parliament's defense committee, said on Monday.

"It is likely that groups of Russian volunteers will appear in the ranks of the Syrian army as combat participants," Komoyedov told the Interfax-AVN news agency.

The Kremlin has said that Russia has no current plans to deploy ground troops to Syria and will confine itself to conducting airstrikes to support the Syrian army instead. It has not yet offered a view on the possibility of Russian volunteers or mercenaries fighting in Syria.

Komoyedov was commenting on unconfirmed media reports that some Russian volunteers who had previously fought alongside Kremlin-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine had been spotted fighting with the Syrian army.

"What attracts volunteers apart from ideas? Of course money most likely," said Komoyedov, a lawmaker with the Communist party.

Interfax-AVN quoted unnamed media reports as saying that such volunteers could make $50 per day.

Komoyedov spoke after Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of the Russian internal republic of Chechnya, told a Russian radio station on Friday he was ready to send Chechen forces to Syria to carry out "special operations" if President Vladimir Putin gave his blessing.

Komoyedov also raised the possibility that Russia's Black Sea Fleet could be used to blockade parts of the Syrian coastline if necessary or to shell Islamist groups on Syrian territory, though he said there was currently no need to use naval firepower because the extremists were too far inland.

I hear that Syria is a nice place for "vacations" this time of year.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/07/us-mideast-crisis-syria-strikes-idUSKCN0S10BI20151007

Syrian army and Russian jets target rebels in western Syria

The Syrian army and allied militia carried out ground attacks on insurgent positions in Syria on Wednesday backed by Russian air strikes, in what appeared to be their first major coordinated assault since Moscow intervened last week, a monitor said.

Russia's air strikes hit northern parts of Hama province and nearby areas in Idlib province, targeting towns close to the main north-south highway that runs through major cities in western Syria, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

Ground attacks using heavy surface-to-surface missile bombardments targeted at least four insurgent positions in the area and there were heavy clashes on the ground, the head of the Observatory Rami Abdulrahman said.

Although Wednesday's combined assault marked a military escalation, it was not immediately clear whether there would be rapid gains in a conflict that has already dragged on more than four years.

"There is no information yet of any (government) advances on the ground, but the air strikes have hit vehicles and insurgent bases," Abdulrahman said.

A regional source familiar with the military situation in Syria said forces including Hezbollah fighters were taking part in the ground attack against four rebel-held areas.

Reuters reported last week that allies of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, including Iranians, were preparing a ground attack in Syria, aimed at recapturing territory lost by the government to rebels in rapid advances this year.

Abdulrahman, who tracks the conflict using sources in Syria, said the ground assault was being carried out by "regime forces" and their allies, with no immediate sign of Russian involvement on the ground.

Syrian state media and regional pro-government channels made no mention of new Russian strikes or the ground attacks on Wednesday.

Russia, a top ally of Assad, started air strikes in Syria a week ago, saying they were targeting hardline Islamic State militants.

But fighters on the ground and Western countries have said the Russian campaign is mainly focusing on other rebel groups that have seized government-held areas in the west, and is aimed at shoring up Assad rather than combating hardliners.

Russia's strikes on Wednesday targeted the towns of Kafr Zita, Kafr Nabudah, al-Sayyad and the village of al-Latamneh in Hama province and the towns of Khan Shaykhun and Alhbit in Idlib, the Observatory said.

Most of Idlib province is held by an insurgent alliance that includes al Qaeda's Syria wing Nusra Front and other Islamist factions.

Are there any numbers on how many Iranians and Hezbollah are in Syria? Articles variably claim "hundreds" or "thousands."

[jimmy olsen]

Russia hit ISIS with 26 sea launched cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34465425

[Malthus]

One wonders how Putin's Russia is going to be able to afford war in Syria plus war in Ukraine.

[Monoriu]

One wonders how Putin's Russia is going to be able to afford war in Syria plus war in Ukraine.

These are investments, not expenses.  We'll help you now.  You pay tribute later 

[Malthus]

One wonders how Putin's Russia is going to be able to afford war in Syria plus war in Ukraine.

These are investments, not expenses.  We'll help you now.  You pay tribute later 

Eastern Ukraine, the Crimea, and Syria were shit-holes economically *before* they were trashed by war. Unless he is thinking of honing in on ISIS's sex-slavery racket, it is hard to see them paying much in the way of "tribute" *after* they have been trashed by war. 

This is like taking over Detroit as a war-lord, for the loot.

[Monoriu]

One wonders how Putin's Russia is going to be able to afford war in Syria plus war in Ukraine.

These are investments, not expenses.  We'll help you now.  You pay tribute later 

Eastern Ukraine, the Crimea, and Syria were shit-holes economically *before* they were trashed by war. Unless he is thinking of honing in on ISIS's sex-slavery racket, it is hard to see them paying much in the way of "tribute" *after* they have been trashed by war. 

This is like taking over Detroit as a war-lord, for the loot.

I've read somewhere that eastern Ukraine is the most well-off part of Ukraine, which isn't that poor to begin with.  Part of the reason why Hitler wanted that area.  Crimea is a holiday resort for Russians.  Syria, I don't know, it seems important in all the Roman-era games that I played 

[Malthus]

I've read somewhere that eastern Ukraine is the most well-off part of Ukraine, which isn't that poor to begin with.  Part of the reason why Hitler wanted that area.  Crimea is a holiday resort for Russians.  Syria, I don't know, it seems important in all the Roman-era games that I played 

Nope, Eastern Ukraine was the "rust belt" - full of obsolete Soviet heavy industry gone to seed. It's the Detroit of Ukraine. To the extent that the locals actually support Russia, it's because of a mix of ethno-nationalism (many if not most are "ethnic Russians" moved in after the Soviets murdered the locals), current grinding poverty, and nostalgia for the good old days when there were jobs - under the Soviet Union. They hope that, with Russia in charge, the jobs will return, which is highly unlikely.

Crimea was a resort area, but tourism never actually paid the bills - it has always been a net money consumer. And tourists are thin on the ground these days.

[Tamas]

You know, Putin's regime/leadership shows so much similarity with Hungary's, and those guys, at the end of the day, are only after wealth.

Maybe all this intervention is about that: Assad selling the family silver to buy Putin's services.

[Malthus]

You know, Putin's regime/leadership shows so much similarity with Hungary's, and those guys, at the end of the day, are only after wealth.

Maybe all this intervention is about that: Assad selling the family silver to buy Putin's services.

Peronally, I think Putin resembles Mussolini in the 30s. Mussolini also loved tweaking the West, arousing nationalist fervour, and aggrandizing himself by invading various useless places like Albania and Ethiopia; like Putin, many thought he was a "genius" for doing so.