May 9th Prediction: Obama or Romney?

[grumbler]

I still don't understand what Obama's birth certificate is supposed to show this guy.  If he wants to challenge Obama's eligibility for the office, he needs to challenge the citizenship of Obama's mother.  The place of Obama's birth has no bearing, if his mother was a citizen.

[derspiess]

I still don't understand what Obama's birth certificate is supposed to show this guy.  If he wants to challenge Obama's eligibility for the office, he needs to challenge the citizenship of Obama's mother.  The place of Obama's birth has no bearing, if his mother was a citizen.

Ditto.

[Razgovory]

It's not suppose to prove anything, except that Ken Bennett is willing to pander the worst elements of the GOP, which also happens to be near the majority of Republicans these days.

[Jaron]

I still don't understand what Obama's birth certificate is supposed to show this guy.  If he wants to challenge Obama's eligibility for the office, he needs to challenge the citizenship of Obama's mother.  The place of Obama's birth has no bearing, if his mother was a citizen.

This is not true.

[Phillip V]

Right now, the election is too close to call with many more "swing" states than in the past. BOTH Romney and Obama are creating a lot of purple states. For example, recent polls (several each) show a slim Romney lead in Arizona while polls show a slim Obama lead in Wisconsin.

Arizona: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/az/arizona_romney_vs_obama-1757.html
Wisconsin: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html

However, my assessment has been that the economy will stagnate or slow down going into summer and fall, so that may have a downside for Obama. Many close Senate contests such as Massachusetts (Scott/Warren) and Virginia (Allen/Kaine) will depend on the strength of Romney and Obama at the top of the ticket.

[derspiess]

However, my assessment has been that the economy will stagnate or slow down going into summer and fall, so that may have a downside for Obama. Many close Senate contests such as Massachusetts (Scott/Warren) and Virginia (Allen/Kaine) will depend on the strength of Romney and Obama at the top of the ticket.

I think the economy will have to show clear signs of turning around before late summer, or the perception that we're in a bad economy will be stuck in people's heads come November.  Still, although it's a tossup in the polls right now I'm still considering it Obama's election to lose. 

[Sheilbh]

He could be losing it though.  From this distance he's running a dreadful, dreadful campaign which shows why he should never listen to American liberals or the Democrats.

I still think the centre-right politician with most chance of defeating Obama is Merkel.  If Europe implodes then surely he's gone.

[CountDeMoney]

Romney feigns outrage at visa for Castro's niece
By Lee Hockstader

Mitt Romney's camp has come unglued because a gay rights advocate is on her way to San Francisco. Horrors! But it gets worse: she's coming from Cuba! And — brace yourself — her last name is Castro!

If you can think of a more perfect storm of Republican bogeymen, I'd be happy to hear it. But I doubt you can.

The terrifying apparition in question is Mariela Castro, the 50-year-old daughter of octogenerian Cuban dictator Raul Castro and niece of big brother Fidel. In Cuba, Mariela is best known as an outspoken champion of the LBGT community — which has never been in great favor with the regime, to put it mildly.

The State Department issued a visa to Mariela, along with dozens of other more or less prominent Cuban schoars, to attend the 30th Conference of the Latin American Studies Association, to be held starting Wednesday in San Francisco. They're among 5,000 people expected to attend, including 2,000 or so from Latin America.

The real scandal is that the State Department refused visas to 11 Cubans, including some of the country's best respected and most independent-minded scholars. But Romney and his allies had nothing to say about that. Instead, they've blasted the Obama Administration for issuing a visa to Mariela, suggesting it's outrageous to admit the daughter of a dictator for a short visit to the U.S..

Here's the full statement by Romney, who, in his dyspepsia, manages to get Mariela's name wrong: (Attention Florida voters: Pander Alert!)

I am greatly disturbed by the Obama Administration's decision to allow Mariel [sic] Castro, daughter of Raul Castro, to travel to the United States. We shouldn't be extending an open hand to a regime engaged in the systematic and flagrant denial of basic human rights. While the Cuban regime engages in a fierce crackdown on dissent and continues to unjustly imprison one of our own citizens, Alan Gross, the Obama Administration should not be welcoming the daughter of a dictator. The United States should be standing up for those on the island who are risking their very lives fighting for freedom.

In fact, Mariela isn't known as an "arm of [Castro's] regime" (as Marco Rubio charged). In fact, by Cuban standards, she comes tantalizingly close to being a dissident, albeit one with a particular cause.

As the director of the Cuban National Center for Sex Education, she is one of the country's best known activists on behalf of the LGBT community, who are the object of widespread popular scorn and occasional crackdowns by the regime. She's written nine books, in addition to adacemic articles. And in her visa application to attend the San Francisco conference, she indicated an interest to attend a panel discussion on sexual diversity. (She's also scheduled to attend an event at the New York Public Library before flying home.)

If denying visas to the relatives of dictators from entering or even living in the United States were official policy, I can think of a long list of people over many decades who'd have been ripe candidates for detention and deportation.

The only point in Romney's feigned outrage at Mariela Castro's brief trip is to prove his bona fides to the dwindling ranks of voters in south Florida for whom anyone vaguely connected to the Castro regime in anathema.

It's fair to call the Cuban regime what it is: a museum of failed communist semi-orthodoxy run by a decrepit gang of human rights abusers. It's fair to be outraged at the unjust detention of Alan Gross, the American who remains in Cuban custody for promoting internet access in Cuba. But it's absurd to make Mariela Castro a proxy for the regime in Havana and a symbol of America's residual dyspepsia where it comes to all things Cuban.

[DGuller]

By that logic, we should've kept Svetlana Alliluyeva out of US.

[CountDeMoney]

NBC/WSJ poll: Obama, Romney locked in tight contest

Despite a volatile and eventful past few weeks in the early presidential contest, President Barack Obama continues to hold a small – and slightly narrowing – lead over Mitt Romney, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

But given the public's pessimism about the economy and the direction of the country, Romney finds himself well within striking distance in an election that has the potential to be as close as the 2004 race between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat John Kerry.

"Obama's chances for re-election ... are no better than 50-50," says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican Bill McInturff.

"So much has happened, and so little has changed," Hart adds. "And it tells you this is a dead-even race."

This poll – which was taken after the anniversary of Osama bin Laden's death, Obama's announcement in support of gay marriage, fresh economic worries about Europe, and last month's tepid jobs report – shows the Democrat leading Romney by four points among registered voters, 47 percent to 43 percent.

In April, Obama's edge in the survey was two points higher, 49 percent to 43 percent.

In the newest poll, Obama leads Romney among African Americans (88 percent to 2 percent), 18 to 34 year olds (55 percent to 35 percent), women (53 percent to 38 percent), independents (44 percent to 36 percent), and seniors (46 percent to 44 percent).

Romney, meanwhile, holds the advantage with whites (52 percent to 39 percent), men (49 percent to 40 percent), suburban residents (47 percent to 41 percent), Midwest residents (48 percent to 43 percent), and high-interest voters (47 percent to 44 percent).

Down on the economy and nation's direction
Yet attitudes about the economy and country's direction appear to give Romney more than a puncher's chance to make up his deficits against Obama.

Only 33 percent of respondents believe the economy will get better in the next year, which is down five points from April, and seven points from March. In addition, approval of Obama's handling of the economy stands at 43 percent, down two points from last month.

"It feels a little tick worse" than it was earlier in the year, GOP pollster McInturff said about the economy.

What's more, just a third of respondents think the nation is headed in the right direction, which is virtually unchanged from this year's previous NBC/WSJ polls (but remains significantly higher than late last year, after Washington's debt-ceiling showdown).

And by a 48 to 45 percent margin, they think the U.S. is experiencing a long-term decline versus ordinarily tough times, while another 63 percent aren't confident that life for their children will be better than it's been for them.

Obama's high marks – and low ones
But Americans also give Obama high marks on key issues. By a 54 to 13 percent margin, they say his approach and policies have made the Iraq war better.

By a 48 to 18 percent margin, they say he's improved the war in Afghanistan. And by 47 to 18 percent margin, they say he's helped the U.S. auto industry.

But respondents give him negative marks on the budget deficit (47 percent say he's made things worse), health care (43 percent), partisanship in politics (39 percent) the economy (37 percent) and the housing market (32 percent).

The president's overall job-approval rating in the poll stands at 48 percent, which is virtually unchanged from April, and his foreign-policy handling is at 51 percent.

Advantages for Romney – and doubts about him
The NBC/WSJ poll also shows that respondents believe that Romney's business background is an asset that can be applied to several issues.

Nearly 60 percent say that business background can be a major or minor advantage for improving the country's economic and job conditions, and nearly six in 10 say it could help to reduce the federal budget deficit.

Another 57 percent believe it could be an advantage in signing trade deals with foreign countries.

But doubts remain about Romney. While just 32 percent say they are either "extremely" or "quite" confident that Obama has the right policies and goals for the country, only 19 percent say the same about Romney.

And regarding Romney's past work at the private-equity firm Bain Capital, the poll shows that 9 percent have a positive view of the firm and 19 percent have a negative view; 53 percent either weren't sure or weren't familiar with it.

In the last two weeks, the Obama campaign has pointed to examples where Bain – under Romney's leadership – took over companies, saddled them with debt, laid off workers, all while making big profits for the investors.

A replay of 2004?
Given all of these different elements – the president's approval rating, attitudes about the country's direction and economy, doubts about the challenger – this presidential race looks very similar to the 2004 one between Bush and Kerry.

According to the May 2004 NBC/WSJ poll, Bush's approval rating was 47 percent (Obama's is 48 percent); just 33 percent thought the nation was headed in the right direction (33 percent say that now); and approval of Bush's handling of the economy was at 41 percent (Obama's is 43 percent).

And also in May 2004, Bush was leading Kerry by three points, 48 percent to 45 percent (Obama is now leading Romney by four points).

Hart, the Democratic pollster, sees this additional parallel to 2004: Both Democrats and Republicans will spend an enormous amount of money to influence a sliver of undecided voters.

Paraphrasing Winston Churchill, Hart says, "Never will so much money be spent to persuade so few."

The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted May 16-20 of 1,000 adults (250 reached by cell phone), and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points; among registered voters, the margin of error is plus-minus 3.4 percentage points.

[Phillip V]

Obama campaign has increased Biden's profile this election, but the public is not warming to him. The VP instead now has a net negative approval rating. Would Clinton for VP have boosted Obama's reelection chances?

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0512/76683.html

[dps]

However, my assessment has been that the economy will stagnate or slow down going into summer and fall, so that may have a downside for Obama. Many close Senate contests such as Massachusetts (Scott/Warren) and Virginia (Allen/Kaine) will depend on the strength of Romney and Obama at the top of the ticket.

I think the economy will have to show clear signs of turning around before late summer, or the perception that we're in a bad economy will be stuck in people's heads come November.  Still, although it's a tossup in the polls right now I'm still considering it Obama's election to lose. 

Of course it's his election to lose.  Nobody is actually excited about the idea of a Romney Administration, so it all depends on how fed up people are with the Obama Administration.

[derspiess]

Obama campaign has increased Biden's profile this election, but the public is not warming to him. The VP instead now has a net negative approval rating. Would Clinton for VP have boosted Obama's reelection chances?

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0512/76683.html

Smartest thing (short of shitcanning Biden & putting Hillary in his slot) for the Obama camp is to tell Biden to shut the hell up and severely curtail any further public appearances for the next few months.

I told you guys he was fucking nuts.

[Hansmeister]

He could be losing it though.  From this distance he's running a dreadful, dreadful campaign which shows why he should never listen to American liberals or the Democrats.

I still think the centre-right politician with most chance of defeating Obama is Merkel.  If Europe implodes then surely he's gone.

Where is Merkel's birth certificate? 

Obama has been running a dreadful campaign.  The only thing that is saving him so far is that most people haven't started paying attention yet.  obama's team had started believing their own hype that they can't possibly lose and have half-assed their campaign to date.

Of course it doesn't help when you can't offer any serious rationale why you deserve to get reelected, or what you will do if you get reelested.

[Valmy]

Well if he truly is running a dreadful campaign it could be down deep he just doesn't want another four years.

But then you are hardly a fair analyst of Democratic politics.