Deal with Iran in the works?

[CountDeMoney]

I am pretty sure I could find this exact same article about North Korea from a few years back, if I cared to google

I don't know why you would though.  North Korea and Iran are very different types of regimes in very different situations.

Not really.  Oppressive regimes hell-bent on acquiring nuclear weaponry for local hegemony, nationalist pride and targeted for specific regional enemies?  The only differences are the shape of their eyes.

You know, sometimes you Euros' penchant for romanticizing the Iranians as some sort of salvageable project that could eventually embrace the west would be laughable if it wasn't so nauseating.

I too have my doubts, but Sheilbh is right - the two regimes are very different.  I can not recall Iran engaging in the same repeated broken deals that NK has engaged in over the last 20 years.

That's because they never even bothered with the concept of any deals.  Israel has to be wiped from the map in a sea of fire, remember?  Not much of a negotiation principle there.

[Viking]

I am pretty sure I could find this exact same article about North Korea from a few years back, if I cared to google

I don't know why you would though.  North Korea and Iran are very different types of regimes in very different situations.

What, unstable totalitarian dictatorships which are leveraging their nuclear and missile programs for economic goods needed to avoid economic collapse by negotiating with the West/USA?

[Razgovory]

Iran isn't totalitarian.  It's authoritarian and has corrupt rigged election system, but lets not go overboard here.  The state doesn't control all life for people in Iran.

[derspiess]

the real hardliners are the French

Perhaps not after the election though.

That would be very disappointing.

I urge all of you Frenchmen out there to vote Sarkozy.

You know, I think I'll start a campaign where Americans will mail letters to an entire province in an attempt to convince them to vote Sarkozy.  I think that would go over really, really well.

Do it for the other guy.  You know, reverse psychology & whatnot.  Works for my 4-year old, so it'd have to work with the French.

[Sheilbh]

Iran isn't totalitarian.  It's authoritarian and has corrupt rigged election system, but lets not go overboard here.  The state doesn't control all life for people in Iran.

True and in addition to not being totalitarian it's never been Stalinist.  Sanctions hurt Iran far more than North Korea.  Also its position in the world and foreign policy intentions are totally different from North Korea.

As Barrister points out the Iranian strategy hasn't been to make deals, get aid and then break deals.  They just haven't made them, they've also not needed the aid as much.  It's a different situation.

Obviously there's a lot of work to do before a deal but I'd note that the Obama administration and the EU have worked on a very comprehensive scheme of sanctions that are being applied and more are coming.  No-one's taken the military option off the table and Israel's clearly ready for it.  So that means there's a greater degree of pressure on Iran than before.

The key hint from the Iranian side was, I think, that Khamenei made a public statement regarding nukes.  It's right that that's being followed up on by the West.  Also this is the first time I've read an article that says the outlines of a deal are more or less clear - that's interesting if true.

Those bits together point more towards a deal than anything I can think of in the last decade.

[Viking]

Iran does deals to avoid sanctions, NK does deals to get food. Fundamentally the same motivation.

[KRonn]

Yes, deal with Iran... right after the one with North Korea.   

[Jacob]

Iran does deals to avoid sanctions, NK does deals to get food. Fundamentally the same motivation.

Not at all.

If Iran backslides, the sanctions can be reactivated. When NK backslides, the food can't be taken back. The basic mechanics of the give and take are different.

[mongers]

That would be very disappointing.

I urge all of you Frenchmen out there to vote Sarkozy.

You know, I think I'll start a campaign where Americans will mail letters to an entire province in an attempt to convince them to vote Sarkozy.  I think that would go over really, really well.

You want the left to win in France.   

[Admiral Yi]

Not at all.

If Iran backslides, the sanctions can be reactivated. When NK backslides, the food can't be taken back. The basic mechanics of the give and take are different.

Not that different.  The world can't take back the trade it conducted with Iran if Iran backslides.

[KRonn]

Iran does deals to avoid sanctions, NK does deals to get food. Fundamentally the same motivation.

Not at all.

If Iran backslides, the sanctions can be reactivated. When NK backslides, the food can't be taken back. The basic mechanics of the give and take are different.

Right, what ever. And neither has worked yet. 

[Jacob]

Not that different.  The world can't take back the trade it conducted with Iran if Iran backslides.

So you agree with Viking that there's no significant difference in the dynamics in the negotiations with Iran and North Korea respectively?

[Admiral Yi]

So you agree with Viking that there's no significant difference in the dynamics in the negotiations with Iran and North Korea respectively?

There are a number of differences.  The moral hazard of North Koreans starving to death.  North Korea's history of repeated backsliding.  North Korea's closeness to their superpower patron China.

[grumbler]

Iran has a huge minority of people (the well-educated, the would-be upwardly mobile, the internet-connected, the entrepreneurs) - in short, children of the current leadership and the future leadership of the country, which is absolutely ready for a deal that will end their isolation from the world.  North Korea has nothing like this.

Authoritarian regimes don't last.  They may recur, but they don't last, unless accompanied by NK-level repression. 

This potential deal is absolutely a good thing for the West.  Once the Iranian educated class gets accustomed to trade with the West, they won't allow their leadership to risk that.  Since these guys and gals will be the government bureaucrats, the drivers of the economy, and the junior officers in the army, they won't be a force the government can afford to get all "then let them eat cake" with.

Read Children of Jihad to get a better feel for this.

[CountDeMoney]

Iran has a huge minority of people (the well-educated, the would-be upwardly mobile, the internet-connected, the entrepreneurs) - in short, children of the current leadership and the future leadership of the country, which is absolutely ready for a deal that will end their isolation from the world. 

They don't need a deal;  they have life already made.  They come and go as they please, to their educations in Europe and the US, to their ski lodges and retreats on the Caspian, and the Ayatollahs of Rocknrolla look the other way.  As long as nobody makes waves, they get to live their little bourgeois lives.

Once the Iranian educated class gets accustomed to trade with the West, they won't allow their leadership to risk that. 

The Iranian educated class don't need to give a shit about trade with the West, because they do what any other class of value do from shitty countries;  they go to learn, shop, work and live in the West.