Deal with Iran in the works?

[Sheilbh]

The stage is set for a deal with Iran
By David Ignatius, Published: April 18

The nuclear talks with Iran have just begun, but already the smart money in Tehran is betting on a deal. That piece of intelligence comes from the Tehran stock index; the day after the talks opened, it posted its largest daily rise in months and closed at a record high.

Tehran investors may be guilty of wishful thinking in their eagerness for an agreement that would ease the economic sanctions squeezing their country. My guess is that they probably have it right. So far, Iran is following the script for a gradual, face-saving exit from a nuclear program that even Russia and China have signaled is too dangerous. The Iranians will bargain up to the edge of the cliff, but they don't seem eager to jump.

The mechanics of an eventual settlement are clear enough after Saturday's first session in Istanbul: Iran would agree to stop enriching uranium to the 20 percent level and to halt work at an underground facility near Qom built for higher enrichment. Iran would export its stockpile of highly enriched uranium for final processing to 20 percent, for use in medical isotopes.

In the language of these talks, the Iranians could describe their actions not as concessions to the West but as "confidence-building" measures, aimed at demonstrating the seriousness of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's public pledge in February not to commit the "grave sin" of building a nuclear weapon. And the West would describe its easing of sanctions not as a climb down but as "reciprocity."

The basic framework was set weeks ago, in an exchange of letters between the chief negotiators. Catherine Ashton, who represents the "P5+1" group of permanent U.N. Security Council members and Germany, proposed a "confidence-building exercise aimed at facilitating a constructive dialogue on the basis of reciprocity and a step-by-step approach."

The Iranian negotiator, Saeed Jalili,responded that because the West was willing to recognize Iran's right to peaceful nuclear energy, "our talks for cooperation based on step-by-step principles and reciprocity on Iran's nuclear issue could be commenced." Jalili's status as personal representative of the supreme leader was important, too.

"Step-by-step" and "reciprocity" are the two guideposts for this exercise. They mark a dignified process for making concessions, much like the formula that President Obama used in his January 2009 inaugural address when he first signaled his outreach to Iran: "We seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu played his expected role in this choreography, criticizing the negotiators for agreeing to another round of talks on May 23 in Baghdad without getting concessions in return. "My initial impression is that Iran has been given a freebie," Netanyahu said. "It has got five weeks to continue enrichment without any limitation, any inhibition." A perfect rebuff — just scornful enough to keep the Iranians (and the Americans, too) worried that the Israelis might launch a military attack this summer if no real progress is made in the talks.

The Iranians don't seem ready, for now, for a broad outreach to the United States. Jalili rejected a private bilateral meeting with U.S. Undersecretary of State Wendy Sherman.

The Iranians seem to be preparing their public for a deal that limits enrichment while preserving the right to enrich. In an interview Monday with the Iranian student news agency, Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi explained that "making 20 percent fuel is our right," but that "if they guarantee that they will provide us with the different levels of enriched fuel that we need, then that would be another issue." Salehi seemed to be reviving a 2009 Turkish plan to export Iran's low-enriched uranium abroad, and receive back 20 percent fuel for its Tehran research reactor, supposedly to make the isotopes. That earlier deal collapsed because of opposition from Khamenei, who apparently is now ready to bargain.

Jalili struck the same upbeat tone in comments printed in the Tehran Times. "We witnessed progress," he said, explaining that the supreme leader's religious edict renouncing nuclear weapons "created an opportunity for concrete steps toward disarmament and nonproliferation." He said "the next talks should be based on confidence-building measures, which would build the confidence of Iranians."

Translation: The Iranians expect to be paid, in "step-by-step" increments, as they move toward a deal. At a minimum, they will want a delay of the U.S. and European sanctions that take full effect June 28 and July 1, respectively. That timetable gives the West leverage, too — to keep the threatened sanctions in place until the Iranians have made the required concessions. It's a well-prepared negotiation, in other words, and it seems likely to succeed if each side keeps to the script and doesn't muff its lines.

I thought Khamenei's line was striking and it looks like it's been followed up on.  It's worth saying that according to the FT a lot of diplomats are saying Cathy Ashton's doing a superb job on this - which is surprising given the criticism she's received before.  Istanbul did look to be a bit more promising than previous meetings too.

[Viking]

Iran, like North Korea, keeps making promises and keeps breaking those promises behind it's back as well as recinding these promises when the pressure which forced the promises is withdrawn. I don't belive that the Iranians are barganing in good faith, but hope to be proven wrong.

[Razgovory]

I think some in the Iranian government are genuinely spooked.  2009 showed that hold on power that the current government has is shaky.  An air Campaign would demonstrate the impotence of the government in the face of Israeli/America/Saudi military might.  War would also lead to a collapse of the already suffering Iranian economy.  A government that can't protect itself and can't feed it's people is a government that doesn't have long for this world.

[CountDeMoney]

You Euros will fucking believe anything.

[Sheilbh]

You Euros will fucking believe anything.

Apparently the US, UK and Germany are broadly speaking as one in the P5+1, the real hardliners are the French

[CountDeMoney]

You Euros will fucking believe anything.

Apparently the US, UK and Germany are broadly speaking as one in the P5+1, the real hardliners are the French

And that's goddamned right.  They have been since 2003.  It was their fucking intel coup that delivered the news to Dubya...but noooooo, we had to go after the guy that tried to whack mah Daddy YOU DONT MESS WIFF TEXAS GIGGITY

[mongers]

I think some in the Iranian government are genuinely spooked.  2009 showed that hold on power that the current government has is shaky.  An air Campaign would demonstrate the impotence of the government in the face of Israeli/America/Saudi military might.  War would also lead to a collapse of the already suffering Iranian economy.  A government that can't protect itself and can't feed it's people is a government that doesn't have long for this world.

You gotta be kidding, those princes would make Saddam and Qaddafi look like Butch Casidy and the Sundance kid. 
The majority of their armed forces are targeted at their own population or other factions within the kleptocracy .

[Ancient Demon]

the real hardliners are the French

Perhaps not after the election though.

[CountDeMoney]

the real hardliners are the French

Perhaps not after the election though.

That would be very disappointing.

I urge all of you Frenchmen out there to vote Sarkozy.

You know, I think I'll start a campaign where Americans will mail letters to an entire province in an attempt to convince them to vote Sarkozy.  I think that would go over really, really well.

[Tamas]

I am pretty sure I could find this exact same article about North Korea from a few years back, if I cared to google

[CountDeMoney]

I am pretty sure I could find this exact same article about North Korea from a few years back, if I cared to google

It would be difficult, as there would be several years' worth.

[Sheilbh]

I am pretty sure I could find this exact same article about North Korea from a few years back, if I cared to google

I don't know why you would though.  North Korea and Iran are very different types of regimes in very different situations.

[CountDeMoney]

I am pretty sure I could find this exact same article about North Korea from a few years back, if I cared to google

I don't know why you would though.  North Korea and Iran are very different types of regimes in very different situations.

Not really.  Oppressive regimes hell-bent on acquiring nuclear weaponry for local hegemony, nationalist pride and targeted for specific regional enemies?  The only differences are the shape of their eyes.

You know, sometimes you Euros' penchant for romanticizing the Iranians as some sort of salvageable project that could eventually embrace the west would be laughable if it wasn't so nauseating.

[Ed Anger]

the real hardliners are the French

Perhaps not after the election though.

That would be very disappointing.

I urge all of you Frenchmen out there to vote Sarkozy.

You know, I think I'll start a campaign where Americans will mail letters to an entire province in an attempt to convince them to vote Sarkozy.  I think that would go over really, really well.

[Barrister]

I am pretty sure I could find this exact same article about North Korea from a few years back, if I cared to google

I don't know why you would though.  North Korea and Iran are very different types of regimes in very different situations.

Not really.  Oppressive regimes hell-bent on acquiring nuclear weaponry for local hegemony, nationalist pride and targeted for specific regional enemies?  The only differences are the shape of their eyes.

You know, sometimes you Euros' penchant for romanticizing the Iranians as some sort of salvageable project that could eventually embrace the west would be laughable if it wasn't so nauseating.

I too have my doubts, but Sheilbh is right - the two regimes are very different.  I can not recall Iran engaging in the same repeated broken deals that NK has engaged in over the last 20 years.