Iraq - is our debt there paid?

[Siege]

Well, what worries me of the situation in Iraq is that Al-Qaeda has a vested interest in maintaining the war in Iraq going, so we cannot focus our combat power in Afghanistan and the Pakistani border.

[Sheilbh]

Despite the recent string of bombings I am confident the war in Iraq is coming to a successful conclusion from our perspective.

Don't be so sure.  The US has had to stop paying the Sons of Iraq under the SOFA, meanwhile the Iraqis still haven't hired many of them and, given that their budget has been cut by 40% in the last year, they couldn't even integrate them into the military if they wanted to.

[Sheilbh]

There was plenty of warnings, from a variety of sources.

hell, we argued about it on languish plenty. I looked like even more of an idiot than usual, since I took the position that just because we didn't see a plan doesn't mean there wasn't one - that the plan was likely classified, and telling the insurgents your plan is a good way to tell them how to counter it.

I remember articles by experienced Arabists saying that Shia and Sunni would probably come to blows being dismissed because they were written by experienced Arabists, and thus prejudiced.  I think I dismissed a few myself.

[Berkut]

Despite the recent string of bombings I am confident the war in Iraq is coming to a successful conclusion from our perspective.

Don't be so sure.  The US has had to stop paying the Sons of Iraq under the SOFA, meanwhile the Iraqis still haven't hired many of them and, given that their budget has been cut by 40% in the last year, they couldn't even integrate them into the military if they wanted to.

That is certainly concerning - but I imagine the hope is that the central government is strong enough (and the insurgency momentum is weak enough) that it won't matter...that much.

I am certainly not comfortable that it will all be sun and roses from here on out...but I do think our part as the primary player is largely done, and on generally positive terms, in the overall balance.

[Sheilbh]

That is certainly concerning - but I imagine the hope is that the central government is strong enough (and the insurgency momentum is weak enough) that it won't matter...that much.

But I think fighting an insurgent or a militia that's Sunni takes on a different character when there aren't very many Sunnis in many levels of the government.  I mean I think around 70% of the Army's top brass have links with the Badr Brigades.  The danger is that the government behaves like a militia with the legitimacy of a state, which I think it came dangerously close to prior to the recruitment of the Sons of Iraq.

[starbright]

I don't see how this is about a debt being paid. It's not like we took out Saddam just because he was extra 'evil.' If Iraq becomes hostile to US after we leave, the whole thing was for nothing.