The Supreme Court & Obamacare

[DGuller]

No, I can't be sure you aren't clerking for Kennedy. 

Gentleman's bet then: 25 and 75 are pushes, I get the middle band, you get the outsides.

You need to define the timeline.  Obviously it's going to be 0 or 100 once the 5-4 decision is officially made public.

[DGuller]

Yi, if you keep this up, you'll get Languish seized by the Justice Department.

3-1 says I don't.

[Admiral Yi]

You need to define the timeline.  Obviously it's going to be 0 or 100 once the 5-4 decision is officially made public.

Only if some schmuck places a trade after the decision airs.

[DGuller]

You need to define the timeline.  Obviously it's going to be 0 or 100 once the 5-4 decision is officially made public.

Only if some schmuck places a trade after the decision airs.

So if I bet on the extreme values, I win as long as there is at least one point in time that the price is in the extreme range (>75 or <25)?

[Admiral Yi]

So if I bet on the extreme values, I win as long as there is at least one point in time that the price is in the extreme range (>75 or <25)?

Good point, it would have to be last day of trading.  God you people are good with numbers.

[DGuller]

So if I bet on the extreme values, I win as long as there is at least one point in time that the price is in the extreme range (>75 or <25)?

Good point, it would have to be last day of trading.  God you people are good with numbers.

Ok, so if the price hits the extreme band in the period of 12 hours before the ruling and 12 hours after the ruling, he who bets on the extreme end wins?

[Admiral Yi]

Ok, so if the price hits the extreme band in the period of 12 hours before the ruling and 12 hours after the ruling, he who bets on the extreme end wins?

How is the price going to move after the ruling?

The bet is not that it hits one of the bands in the 12 hours prior to, it's dependent on the very last price traded before the ruling.

BTW have you (or anyone else) ever played on Intrade?

[DGuller]

Ok, so if the price hits the extreme band in the period of 12 hours before the ruling and 12 hours after the ruling, he who bets on the extreme end wins?

How is the price going to move after the ruling?

The bet is not that it hits one of the bands in the 12 hours prior to, it's dependent on the very last price traded before the ruling.

BTW have you (or anyone else) ever played on Intrade?

I played on the play money Intrade run by Rasmussen (and was in 8th place out of 20,000 users when they folded it).  Err, let me correct myself, I have no idea what I'm talking about.

[Admiral Yi]

I don't get the point behind pretending that you didn't really do well on fake Intrade.

[DGuller]

I don't get the point behind pretending that you didn't really do well on fake Intrade.

It's called hustling.  Err, actually, there was no point to that.

[Habbaku]

Yi, if you keep this up, you'll get Languish seized by the Justice Department.

3-1 says I don't.

[alfred russel]

No, I can't be sure you aren't clerking for Kennedy. 

Gentleman's bet then: 25 and 75 are pushes, I get the middle band, you get the outsides.

I'm not saying I think the info is going to leak into the market, I'm just saying will be interesting to see if it does. 

[alfred russel]

I played on the play money Intrade run by Rasmussen (and was in 8th place out of 20,000 users when they folded it).  Err, let me correct myself, I have no idea what I'm talking about.

In 2008 I did well in the primary election with real money on intrade, primarily betting the extreme election results (for example, against Ron Paul, against candidates down ~20 points in the polls). I probably made a little over 10% over a few months. I was going to do it again this time, I think the extreme values are there again, but I realized, "holy shit you actually sent cash to some random offshore gambling site"? What really decided it for me was when I saw they have a market on whether intrade is able to stay in business. 

[Ideologue]

You guys are crazy to bet on this.  You might as well just flip coins.

[Fate]

It's going to be 6-3 in favor of the liberals. Republicans won't let insurance companies start going belly up. Then we'll really be forced into single payer. Otherwise everyone could just wait to buy insurance until they're diagnosed with an expensive chronic illness.