The Supreme Court & Obamacare

[Admiral Yi]

He also completely muffed it by not offering the justices any kind of test that would prevent the creation of police powers.  Or plenary powers, whichever it is.

[alfred russel]

How are payments into the Health Security system different, such that they are not taxes?

It appears that if taxes are only levied on a subset of the population then they are a "direct tax" and therefore verbotten.

I see.

Heh... I kind of think it a thing of beauty if the mandates got struck down and then Obama went with "alright, fine. No mandates. The government will pay the premiums, and here's a corresponding tax increase."

Of course, he probably won't be able to pull that off even if he wanted to.

(By the way, I agree... the transcript is interesting reading for sure).

When health care passed, the Democrats controlled the House of Representatives by a huge margin, and had a supermajority in the senate. And it was still a 6 month struggle that passed by the skin of its teeth. There is no way Obama can go back and make any sort of change like that now.

[alfred russel]

Intrade has a 55% chance the individual mandate is overturned by  the end of the year. That is up 17% today.

Kennedy could clean up if he had an account.

[KRonn]

When health care passed, the Democrats controlled the House of Representatives by a huge margin, and had a supermajority in the senate. And it was still a 6 month struggle that passed by the skin of its teeth. There is no way Obama can go back and make any sort of change like that now.

The health care system needs some big changes though. Some of Obama care is certainly good, but some of it scares me, especially regarding the costs. The CBO just doubling its cost estimates; we can probably triple that at least. Other stuff. But rather than get into the details of that plan, US health care needs big change. But I tend to agree with you - just won't happen. However, if Obamacare goes down, maybe, hopefully, our legislators can begin to make some smaller changes, including some of Obamacare that they can agree on.

[Admiral Yi]

Intrade has a 55% chance the individual mandate is overturned by  the end of the year. That is up 17% today.

Kennedy could clean up if he had an account.

So yesterday 62% chance it would stand.  That's interesting.

[alfred russel]

The problem is that if you want an overhaul, you have to start with the Obama plan. The core idea of Obama's plan makes sense, even if the some of the details could use work. Obama won't be able to get through another major overhaul in the next 5 years. It is this or nothing. And after all the beating Romney has taken for basically being the the guy who came up with Obamacare, he wouldn't dare bring up a major health care overhaul.

[alfred russel]

So yesterday 62% chance it would stand.  That's interesting.

It will be interesting to see if it starts to converge to either 0% or 100% as a decision nears.

[Admiral Yi]

It will be interesting to see if it starts to converge to either 0% or 100% as a decision nears.

Why should it?  After oral arguments (i.e. right now) we don't get any further market information before the decision.

[alfred russel]

It will be interesting to see if it starts to converge to either 0% or 100% as a decision nears.

Why should it?  After oral arguments (i.e. right now) we don't get any further market information before the decision.

The justices will talk with each other, and their clerks, and possibly others.

Apparently a few days before Saddam was taken out, the market for catching Saddam spiked. Someone was acting on inside info.

[Admiral Yi]

The justices will talk with each other, and their clerks, and possibly others.

Apparently a few days before Saddam was taken out, the market for catching Saddam spiked. Someone was acting on inside info.

Wanna make it interesting Fredo?

[alfred russel]

Wanna make it interesting Fredo?

No, I can't be sure you aren't clerking for Kennedy. 

[KRonn]

The problem is that if you want an overhaul, you have to start with the Obama plan. The core idea of Obama's plan makes sense, even if the some of the details could use work. Obama won't be able to get through another major overhaul in the next 5 years. It is this or nothing. And after all the beating Romney has taken for basically being the the guy who came up with Obamacare, he wouldn't dare bring up a major health care overhaul.

Yeah, it's too bad too. I tend to mostly like the Massachusetts plan. Given the problems with health care, it's too bad these guys couldn't come up with fixes if Obamacare goes down. Too funny, after beating each other over the head about it, they'd be unlikely to come up with fixes/changes. But maybe instead they'd be spurred to make changes if it does go down or is severely impacted by a SC decision.

[Admiral Yi]

No, I can't be sure you aren't clerking for Kennedy. 

Gentleman's bet then: 25 and 75 are pushes, I get the middle band, you get the outsides.

[DGuller]

The justices will talk with each other, and their clerks, and possibly others.

Apparently a few days before Saddam was taken out, the market for catching Saddam spiked. Someone was acting on inside info.

Wanna make it interesting Fredo?

Yi, if you keep this up, you'll get Languish seized by the Justice Department.

[Admiral Yi]

Yi, if you keep this up, you'll get Languish seized by the Justice Department.

3-1 says I don't.