Is Facebook Worth $100 Billion?

[garbon]

I was thinking the same thing...a company valued at way over its revenues because of its mighty internetness?  Haven't we heard this before?  Besides how do we know something newer and better will not come along and Myspace Facebook?

You mean like google+?

I think Facebook is going to be hard to dislodge from the position it has in peoples' lives right now. Most users have huge amounts of their lives invested into Facebook at this point. Years worth of photos and contacts all easily accessible and shareable. It won't be easy to convince people to walk away from that.

Not saying I disagree but I believe facebook implemented a feature that allows you to quickly download all your stuff.

[Ideologue]

I'm curious, has anyone here actually clicked an internet ad to buy something, or been otherwise prompted by an internet ad to make a purchase?

An ad reminded me Futurama was on once.

And I think maybe one time an ad for Papa Johns might've convinced me to buy a pizza.  Because that's hard.

[Jacob]

Not saying I disagree but I believe facebook implemented a feature that allows you to quickly download all your stuff.

It's not really about your stuff, as much as it is about the connections between your stuff and everybody else's stuff. I mean, on Facebook I stay in touch with a number of friends who're far away - someone got a baby in Japan; someone went to a cool show, let's have a look at the pictures; oh, so and so from high school got married, what do they look like now; mom can look at the pictures we took of the dog whenever she wants to; look, my baby sister is partying it up at university - I remember those days, and when we meet I I have a better idea of what's going on in her life since I saw her last; shit, I need a new job - good thing I've kept in contact with a bunch of former colleagues - time to ask around if anyone's hiring; my buddy moved to town and is looking for shared accommodation - Facebook is a good first place to see if anyone has a room available; those guys we suspected were dog-thieves were caught, that's something we want to share with the friends we have in the dog adoption world; hey, we're going to organize a party, what's the easiest way to let people know?

It doesn't really matter that I can download all the assets that go with my profile, what matters is the connection to everybody else's lives. That's something that's grown over the years, and can't (at least not easily) be replaced quickly. So I think they're pretty well ensconced in peoples' lives.

[Jacob]

... and Yi, I've bought a couple of things from internet advertisements. There are a handful of other products I bought through other channels after having been made aware of them through online ads. When the time comes for me to buy a car at some point, the advertising that will have had the most effect on me is probably from the internet since that's pretty much the only vector through which car ads reach me.

There's a definite barrier to be breached before someone buys stuff because of an internet ad. There's also a definite barrier to be breached before someone spends money on micro-transactions in a free-to-play game.

Eventually, however, the barrier gets breached for increasingly larger parts of the population. I mean, if you look back at how you felt about buying things on the internet at all, I expect you (like most people) resisted for however long, though now I expect it's an entirely unremarkable thing to do. Same thing with buying downloaded games.

Same thing with buying things through internet ads, I expect.

[Ed Anger]

I bought a Liberator shape from a ad.


Go look it up.

[Ideologue]

And made in America too.

[Admiral Yi]

Unless there's some unknown rot at the core of Facebook, it's worth a whole lot of money yes. Is that amount $100 Billion? I don't know, I have no idea how to properly evaluate a company IPO so I'll have to pass on that. But at this point Facebook is, from my position of unprivileged information, a peer of Amazon and Google. If those companies' values are in the same ballpark as $100 Billion, then yeah, same goes for Facebook.

Facebook is the primary interface for "the internet" for many many people. It has huge reach. The company is in a good position to make a lot more money than it's doing now.

The difference is people send money to Amazon to get stuff.  Companies send money to Google so they'll rig people's searches.

[Razgovory]

I sent money to Amazon just a few hours ago.  Bought a toy for my niece.

[Ed Anger]

And made in America too.

USA!

[Jacob]

I bought a Liberator shape from a ad.


Go look it up.

Did you get the model with the built in cuffs?

[Jacob]

The difference is people send money to Amazon to get stuff.  Companies send money to Google so they'll rig people's searches.

In broad strokes, yes. What conclusion do you draw from this?

[Admiral Yi]

In broad strokes, yes. What conclusion do you draw from this?

That Amazon and Google have real stock valuations.

[DGuller]

It seems like people keep forgetting that exponential growth can't last forever, and that in the Internet realm, yesterday's leader can become tomorrow's laggard in the blink of an eye.

[Jacob]

In broad strokes, yes. What conclusion do you draw from this?

That Amazon and Google have real stock valuations.

People send money to Facebook for advertising and to buy virtual goods.

[Jacob]

It seems like people keep forgetting that exponential growth can't last forever, and that in the Internet realm, yesterday's leader can become tomorrow's laggard in the blink of an eye.

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how Zynga goes. They're a lot more vulnerable than Facebook.

For Facebook, I think they're in a good position to make more money than they do now, but it's not a given. They'll need to make the right decisions.