Ubisoft games - poster children for piracy?

[Berkut]

Did your quick googling point out the Crysis was a PC exclusive for something like 4 years before the 360 port came out?

The point is that Crysis did just fine at the very height of the supposed piracy era, when piracy was killing PC gaming. Oops. Turns out not to be the case after all...

Yet Crysis 2 sold way more on Xbox than on PC.

I don't doubt it - there are way more XBOX gamers than there are PC gamers.

I can guarantee you that the publishers are asking themselves "if we don't release on PC, will the increase in sales on console make up for the lost PC sales?" If they think the answer is yes, and piracy is definitely part of that analysis, then this franchise which started out on PC will disappear from that platform.

Piracy might be part of that analysis, but its actual impact is still almost completely in the imaginations of those worrying about it. Because at the end of the day, nothing has really changed on the PC side. Piracy is the same as it always was, and before people made games that were pirated and made plenty of money of of those games, and now, if they are not going to make plenty of money off of PC games, it will simply be because there are not as many exclusively PC gamers, and PC gaming is a secondary market for big games like these.

THAT is what has changed. Piracy has not changed since Crysis sold 3 millions copies. What has changed is the overall structure of the gaming marketplace, and where the dollars are being spent.

This is pretty simple analysis. One thing (piracy) has not changed at all. A large number of other things HAS changed. Why would you assume that the thing that has not changed is the driving force in a different decision?

It would not surprise me in the least if Crysis 3 is console only. The numbers are what they are, more is the pity. The console gamers outnumber the PC gamers, especially when you consider the key demographic age group that buys games.

[Berkut]

But we have yet to see any data that suggests that piracy has had a significant impact on that market change, compared to other factors.

By "we" I assume you mean "you" right? Because for my part, I'm convinced by the data I've seen.

Someone told me so is not data. It is opinion.

In other words, given actual data, if there was no piracy at all, the market would still pretty much look like it does right now.

What's the actual data you base this conclusion on?

The examples of games like Crysis that are incredibly successful despite rampant piracy. The example of current games being released for PC that are profitable despite piracy. The fact that ever since there have been PC games, developers have been saying that piracy is about to destroy their ability to make money, and yet they all seem to keep making money for the last 25 years I've been around gaming.

The fact that RIGHT NOW, even while devs like you tell us that nobody can get money for a game without answering the "piracy question" we still see PC games that have NOT answered that question, and yet are perfectly successful.

NOW that PC gaming has finally started its market share decline, for reasons that are rather well understood by everyone (technology, not piracy) those same devs are now going to say "See, I told you so! I correctly predicted the imminent collapse of PC gaming 20 years ago!"

The data is there - even when piracy was at its very worst, PC games succeeded or failed on their merits.

[Razgovory]

But we have yet to see any data that suggests that piracy has had a significant impact on that market change, compared to other factors.

In other words, given actual data, if there was no piracy at all, the market would still pretty much look like it does right now.

Actually, what is the data you are operating from?

[Razgovory]

Honestly, I find this odd.  I didn't expect these arguments from Berkut, someone who has never shown much sympathy for free riders.

[Berkut]

Honestly, I find this odd.  I didn't expect these arguments from Berkut, someone who has never shown much sympathy for free riders.

I don't have any sympathy for them, I just don't buy the hysterical arguments that piracy is killing PC gaming because they don't make any sense.

They are logically fallacious, do not take into account basic economic principles, and every specific example of some game that has supposedly been harmed by piracy doesn't hold up to examination.

My position has nothing to do with my feelings about pirates, or whether I think piracy is morally justifiable.

[Berkut]

But we have yet to see any data that suggests that piracy has had a significant impact on that market change, compared to other factors.

In other words, given actual data, if there was no piracy at all, the market would still pretty much look like it does right now.

Actually, what is the data you are operating from?

Already answered this - myriad examples of PC games that have been extremely successful by their own developers standards despite the fact that they were pirated extensively.

[Jacob]

I don't doubt it - there are way more XBOX gamers than there are PC gamers.

And more games too. Funny that. Almost as if there's more money to be made on console games.

Piracy might be part of that analysis, but its actual impact is still almost completely in the imaginations of those worrying about it.

That doesn't make the impact insignificant.

Because at the end of the day, nothing has really changed on the PC side. Piracy is the same as it always was

You don't think internet and torrents make a difference?

and before people made games that were pirated and made plenty of money of of those games, and now, if they are not going to make plenty of money off of PC games, it will simply be because there are not as many exclusively PC gamers, and PC gaming is a secondary market for big games like these.

There are plenty of PC gamers. There aren't that many paying PC gamers.

When someone releases a PC game and they get orders of magnitude more people hitting their servers with the game than they've sold copies, it puts the decline of PC gaming in a different kind of perspective.

THAT is what has changed. Piracy has not changed since Crysis sold 3 millions copies. What has changed is the overall structure of the gaming marketplace, and where the dollars are being spent.

How are those two things separable?

This is pretty simple analysis. One thing (piracy) has not changed at all.

What do you mean it hasn't changed? Torrents changed everything.

A large number of other things HAS changed. Why would you assume that the thing that has not changed is the driving force in a different decision?

Piracy ease and efficiency of piracy is one of the biggest changes.

It would not surprise me in the least if Crysis 3 is console only. The numbers are what they are, more is the pity. The console gamers outnumber the PC gamers, especially when you consider the key demographic age group that buys games.

Exactly. Especially when you consider the demographic groups that buy games versus the demographic groups that pirate them.

[Razgovory]

But we have yet to see any data that suggests that piracy has had a significant impact on that market change, compared to other factors.

In other words, given actual data, if there was no piracy at all, the market would still pretty much look like it does right now.

Actually, what is the data you are operating from?

Already answered this - myriad examples of PC games that have been extremely successful by their own developers standards despite the fact that they were pirated extensively.

Your Data is that some games made money therefore Piracy is not a major factor?

[Josquius]

Perhaps an entirely different way of thinking is needed.
Technology is afflicting TV in much the same way- thanks to piracy and sky+ advertising revenue is dropping sharply since people tend not to watch the adverts. This is gradually leading towards more product placement actually in the shows.
Perhaps computer games could try the same route of heavy advertising?
Sure, it has been tried before, often not entirely well. But...I could well see a bit of a place for it. Fill the streets on GTA with Coca Cola machines rather than generic brand machines and the like.
Doubt it will be enough to fund development costs on its own, it couldn't be a total replacement model, but it would help a little.
As I've said the true cure for piracy is online content.

[Jacob]

Just to reiterate, though - I don't claim that piracy is the only factor driving development and publishing decisions. In the end, it all comes down to money. If a publisher think they can make money in spite of piracy, they'll of course do it. It's just that these days it's harder. Internally, publishers and developers do consider piracy to be a significant factor in their decision making, no matter how hard people argue on the internet that they shouldn't.

This doesn't mean that no one will ever develop for PC. It just means it's a tougher row to hoe, and that fewer people will attempt it since the rewards are lower than on other platforms.

Big studios will continue to duke it out to hit the top 10 on console, that's where all the money is in that market. Independent developers will be less likely to compete now there since the stakes keep getting higher.

Instead I expect we'll see them on the mobile devices iPad and Android or whatever; it's easier to see how you're going to make money there than on PC. There's a lot of new ground to be covered (and old ground not yet re-covered on those platforms), so it's a lot more inviting. And yes, piracy is part of that picture.

[Berkut]

But we have yet to see any data that suggests that piracy has had a significant impact on that market change, compared to other factors.

In other words, given actual data, if there was no piracy at all, the market would still pretty much look like it does right now.

Actually, what is the data you are operating from?

Already answered this - myriad examples of PC games that have been extremely successful by their own developers standards despite the fact that they were pirated extensively.

Your Data is that some games made money therefore Piracy is not a major factor?

My data is that games that are heavily pirated are heavily profitable, hence the claims that piracy makes it hard to make money so much so that people are not going to bother trying are spurious. Crysis was the most pirated game of 2008, yet exceeded it's developers expectations for sales. And torrents were certainly around in 2008.

At this point, it is pretty clear you aren't even trying to understand my point anymore though.

[Berkut]

Just to reiterate, though - I don't claim that piracy is the only factor driving development and publishing decisions. In the end, it all comes down to money. If a publisher think they can make money in spite of piracy, they'll of course do it. It's just that these days it's harder. Internally, publishers and developers do consider piracy to be a significant factor in their decision making, no matter how hard people argue on the internet that they shouldn't.

This doesn't mean that no one will ever develop for PC. It just means it's a tougher row to hoe, and that fewer people will attempt it since the rewards are lower than on other platforms.

Big studios will continue to duke it out to hit the top 10 on console, that's where all the money is in that market. Independent developers will be less likely to compete now there since the stakes keep getting higher.

Instead I expect we'll see them on the mobile devices iPad and Android or whatever; it's easier to see how you're going to make money there than on PC. There's a lot of new ground to be covered (and old ground not yet re-covered on those platforms), so it's a lot more inviting. And yes, piracy is part of that picture.

Well, lucky for me it doesn't matter. The PC will continue to decline in market share, while still being a significant market in its own right, and this is largely driven by factors that have nothing to do with piracy - as the actual data has shown.

Either way, we end up at the same place. I guess the devs can feel all justified in their whining (and that is a little unfair, I admit - they have every right to react to piracy emotionally, rather than rationally - we are talking about people stealing from them, of course they are going to cast that in the worst possible light) while they continue to make money where there is money to be made.

As a PC gamer though, I don't really feel at all hosed overall. While there are some annoyances, like dealing with console centric interfaces on PC games, there are also some incredible benefits to the current market, with some really high quality niche games out there that probably would not get made if the PC was still the dominant gaming platform.

And like you said - the tablet and phone gaming world is still in its infancy - all kinds of neat stuff is going to happen there - so far I don't think they've even come close to actually using the potential of those devices.

[Jacob]

Perhaps an entirely different way of thinking is needed.
Technology is afflicting TV in much the same way- thanks to piracy and sky+ advertising revenue is dropping sharply since people tend not to watch the adverts. This is gradually leading towards more product placement actually in the shows.
Perhaps computer games could try the same route of heavy advertising?
Sure, it has been tried before, often not entirely well. But...I could well see a bit of a place for it. Fill the streets on GTA with Coca Cola machines rather than generic brand machines and the like.
Doubt it will be enough to fund development costs on its own, it couldn't be a total replacement model, but it would help a little.
As I've said the true cure for piracy is online content.

The new way of thinking has already been found, at least for games: it's called freemium/ micro-transactions. It may not produce the kind of games we're used to playing, but it solves the piracy issues. When you have a freemium/ micro-transaction revenue model you want people to give it away for free - the more the merrier.

[Josquius]

There's that too. The trouble with such things though is on popular games the pirates crack them too. I guess on less popular games it helps a bit though.

[Jacob]

There's that too. The trouble with such things though is on popular games the pirates crack them too. I guess on less popular games it helps a bit though.

Pirates crack them? Do you have an example?

And no it doesn't "help a bit", it's the whole revenue model (much more so than advertising). Have a look at the "World of Tanks" thread. That's the future.