NCAA Hoops 2011-2012

[Valmy]

I was more mocking the ridiculous number of guys from even mediocre college teams that leave early for the NBA draft.  You would think there were 100 teams.

[katmai]

Well the two guys leaving will be NBA players. They both have talent to dominate games in college, but have enough stuff that coming back and spending year would have benefited them, but just not the way college ball works these days.

[Valmy]

Half of Texas' team leaves early for the NBA every year.  I guess a few of them are riding the pine someplace but man it sure gets hilarious.  How can these first weekend exiting teams be so rich with NBA talent?

[Berkut]

  How can these first weekend exiting teams be so rich with NBA talent?

Isn't that pretty obvious? It happens constantly.

The criteria to get drafted in the NBA does not necessarilty translate into being a great college basketball player in your first year out of high school.

But the NBA prizes potential above almost all else, so plenty of guys who may very well be good NBA players go into the draft even though they may not really have dominated at the college level as freshman.

[grumbler]

But the NBA prizes potential above almost all else, so plenty of guys who may very well be good NBA players go into the draft even though they may not really have dominated at the college level as freshman.

And many guys who do so will never play a minute in the real NBA.

It certainly can be argued that a player who gets on an NBA team, even in the D-league, will probably get better coaching, conditioning, and practice than he will by spending another year in college.  That translates into a better chance to make a team, because teams would rather have a year-younger guy than a guy with a year more college experience, all else being equal.

I think we will see less and less of this in colleges in general, as teams like Kentucky become more and more explicitly NBA farm clubs for the one-and-done crowd, and teams like Washington become unable to compete for those kinds of players.  Anyone with one-and-done talent would be foolish to not go to the one-year-NBA-farm-club college teams.

[derspiess]

And as expected the top two scorers from Huskies team are leaving early (one Sophmore and one Freshman) for NBA as both are being told will be top 20 picks.

By my count, there are now 214 top-20 NBA picks for the upcoming draft.  That new math is something!

Seems to increase each year. 

Whenever WVU has a guy who gets drafted (at any spot) I expect him to crash & burn in the NBA and end up playing in Italy or Turkey.  I think Joe Alexander, who went 8th in the draft a few years ago, is stuck playing in Russia.

Ever since Jerry West, Rod Thorn & Hot Rod Hundley it's been pretty bleh.

[Berkut]

But the NBA prizes potential above almost all else, so plenty of guys who may very well be good NBA players go into the draft even though they may not really have dominated at the college level as freshman.

And many guys who do so will never play a minute in the real NBA.

It certainly can be argued that a player who gets on an NBA team, even in the D-league, will probably get better coaching, conditioning, and practice than he will by spending another year in college.  That translates into a better chance to make a team, because teams would rather have a year-younger guy than a guy with a year more college experience, all else being equal.

I think we will see less and less of this in colleges in general, as teams like Kentucky become more and more explicitly NBA farm clubs for the one-and-done crowd, and teams like Washington become unable to compete for those kinds of players.  Anyone with one-and-done talent would be foolish to not go to the one-year-NBA-farm-club college teams.

All true.

I am curious to see how Arizona adapts. They are a school that can and has certainly recruited at the level to attract NBA talent, but has not really embraced that "Yeah, we are here to send you off to the NBA" culture that you see at Kentucky - I wonder if that means

A) Arizona will have to accept that if they want to return to the elite level in results, or
B) Arizona will focus more on tier 1B talent that is more likely to stick around a couple years in the hopes that a more balanced team with some leadership even if it isn't quite super star talent will win out over the freshman phenoms, or
C) All these predictions about the Kentucky model being the way to win turn out to be a bit over-stated, and really overall relying on freshman, no matter how talented, is not a recipe for consistent success, present results notwithstanding.

I do think the extreme of the Kentucky model is bad for the NCAA, bad for the NBA, and bad for the players as well (excepting the rare legit talents that it serves). The NCAA gets crappy basketball, the NBA gets a bunch of unproven kids, many of whom are just going to find out in the NBA that they are not quite as good as they thought instead of in college, and for every legit freshman who is going to get drafted and have a great career, there are a bunch of guys who THINK they are legit but are not, and end up screwing up their careers on the bad advice of others (or their own).

Not sure if there is a fix though.

[Eddie Teach]

Considering the minimum salary for an NBA player will easily pay for 4 years of college and that there's a chance of career-ending injury any time a player steps on the court, I don't see the down side to getting drafted as soon as the NBA wants you.

[crazy canuck]

Berk,

When they instituted the one year rule what was the rationale for having only one year and not the full four years?

[Ed Anger]

Considering the minimum salary for an NBA player will easily pay for 4 years of college and that there's a chance of career-ending injury any time a player steps on the court, I don't see the down side to getting drafted as soon as the NBA wants you.

Greg Oden = LUCKIEST MAN ALIVE.

[Valmy]

Berk,

When they instituted the one year rule what was the rationale for having only one year and not the full four years?

I wish it was like college baseball where you can go to the pros right after high school but if you go to college you have to stay until you are 21 (or play three years whichever comes first).  Requiring everybody to play one year is pretty stupid but hey it worked for Kentucky I guess.

[Valmy]

Greg Oden = LUCKIEST MAN ALIVE.

The Blazers make the Bengals look like draft masters.

[Berkut]

Berk,

When they instituted the one year rule what was the rationale for having only one year and not the full four years?

IIRC, it was more a matter of what they thought they could get away with than anything else - I think everyone would rather it be 2 or even 3 years, but it is not likely they could make that hold up in court when the players sue them.

[derspiess]

Greg Oden = LUCKIEST MAN ALIVE.

The Blazers Andy Dalton and AJ Green make the Bengals look like draft masters.

Fixed that for you

[crazy canuck]

According to Valmy they have the rule in baseball although high school students can be drafted directly.

Was basketball different because the Universities wanted to ensure they would get at least one year of every NBA bound player?