Real, meaningful, and major differences in economical views are re-emerging?

Started by Tamas, October 18, 2011, 08:01:55 AM

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Ideologue

Quote from: The Minsky Moment link as heard by Crazy Canuck

Wah wah wah wah wah
Wah wah wah
Wah wah wah wah wah
Wah wah wah wah wah wah wah
"Peace among nations" - Minsky believed that although armaments production could have a stimulative impact, that in the long-run such expenditures were de-stabilizing because of their built-in rapid obsolescence and capital-intensivity
Kinemalogue
Current reviews: The 'Burbs (9/10); Gremlins 2: The New Batch (9/10); John Wick: Chapter 2 (9/10); A Cure For Wellness (4/10)

Razgovory

I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Ideologue

Quote from: Razgovory on October 20, 2011, 10:35:03 AM
You are better then that Ide.

:rolleyes:

It's just a little joke.  CC's a good guy and a grownup.  I didn't hurt his feelings.

ETA: and to be clear, I wasn't saying he wouldn't understand it, just that he doesn't particularly like those things.  There, I explained the joke, are you happy?
Kinemalogue
Current reviews: The 'Burbs (9/10); Gremlins 2: The New Batch (9/10); John Wick: Chapter 2 (9/10); A Cure For Wellness (4/10)

Tamas

Quote from: Peter Wiggin on October 20, 2011, 10:01:06 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 20, 2011, 09:29:53 AM
Could we please stop the ensuing nerdrage and Languish-"debate" over what the fuck a black swan is? Who cares?

:huh:
It's a movie about a ballerina.

Ok Martinus

frunk

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 20, 2011, 09:17:08 AM
Except that black swans are supposed to be about extreme events.
The reality is that non-extreme or even relative commonplace events can be destabilizing.  The last crisis was not triggered by any extreme event - just a garden variety slow-down in the housing market.

It's about extreme consequences from otherwise commonplace events.  A housing slowdown wasn't unexpected.  The impact that had on a large number of banks and the economy at large was.

Ed Anger

Quote from: Tamas on October 20, 2011, 10:47:58 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on October 20, 2011, 10:01:06 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 20, 2011, 09:29:53 AM
Could we please stop the ensuing nerdrage and Languish-"debate" over what the fuck a black swan is? Who cares?

:huh:
It's a movie about a ballerina.

Ok Martinus

Dude. Mila Kunis and Natalie Portman dyking it up. That movie would bore Mart.

Mart: WHERE ARE THE FEET? WORST MOVIE  EVER!!!
Stay Alive...Let the Man Drive

garbon

Quote from: Ed Anger on October 20, 2011, 11:36:21 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 20, 2011, 10:47:58 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on October 20, 2011, 10:01:06 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 20, 2011, 09:29:53 AM
Could we please stop the ensuing nerdrage and Languish-"debate" over what the fuck a black swan is? Who cares?

:huh:
It's a movie about a ballerina.

Ok Martinus

Dude. Mila Kunis and Natalie Portman dyking it up. That movie would bore Mart.

Mart: WHERE ARE THE FEET? WORST MOVIE  EVER!!!

I think you misstepped with that one. There is a lot of focus on feet, as after all, it is a movie about ballerinas. :P
"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."
I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.

Ed Anger

Quote from: garbon on October 20, 2011, 11:42:48 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on October 20, 2011, 11:36:21 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 20, 2011, 10:47:58 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on October 20, 2011, 10:01:06 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 20, 2011, 09:29:53 AM
Could we please stop the ensuing nerdrage and Languish-"debate" over what the fuck a black swan is? Who cares?

:huh:
It's a movie about a ballerina.

Ok Martinus

Dude. Mila Kunis and Natalie Portman dyking it up. That movie would bore Mart.

Mart: WHERE ARE THE FEET? WORST MOVIE  EVER!!!

I think you misstepped with that one. There is a lot of focus on feet, as after all, it is a movie about ballerinas. :P

:blush:  :lol:
Stay Alive...Let the Man Drive

Tamas


DGuller

Quote from: frunk on October 20, 2011, 11:31:25 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 20, 2011, 09:17:08 AM
Except that black swans are supposed to be about extreme events.
The reality is that non-extreme or even relative commonplace events can be destabilizing.  The last crisis was not triggered by any extreme event - just a garden variety slow-down in the housing market.

It's about extreme consequences from otherwise commonplace events.  A housing slowdown wasn't unexpected.  The impact that had on a large number of banks and the economy at large was.
:yeahright: I think it was quite expected.  It's not like it wasn't a common knowledge that a lot of derivatives were based on the housing market, or that derivatives can blow up in a spectacular way. 

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: frunk on October 20, 2011, 11:31:25 AM
It's about extreme consequences from otherwise commonplace events.

Historically its not that extreme.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Neil

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 20, 2011, 08:49:09 AM
Quote from: Martinus on October 20, 2011, 02:56:10 AM
Uhm, you do realize that recessions and depressions did happen before WW2, and they were much more painful/destructive than what we have now, right?
And this last one would have been like that had it not been for the post-WW2 welfare states and their automatic fiscal stabilizers, and Paulson and Bernanke firing their trillion dollar bazooka.
It isn't too late for it to turn that way, and the long-term effects are similar.  The 2000s were a lost decade for most people, and the 10s and perhaps the 20s will probably be the same.
I do not hate you, nor do I love you, but you are made out of atoms which I can use for something else.

fhdz

Quote from: Martinus on October 20, 2011, 03:04:50 AM
I think the recent years simply show that ultimately we have no idea. The global economy is a confidence game with a nearly countless number of actors. I think advanced physics would describe it better than any actual economic theory.

There are actually a number of people trying to do just that.
and the horse you rode in on

fhdz

Quote from: DGuller on October 20, 2011, 12:19:16 PM
:yeahright: I think it was quite expected.  It's not like it wasn't a common knowledge that a lot of derivatives were based on the housing market, or that derivatives can blow up in a spectacular way.

A good reason we should update and reinstate Glass-Steagall.
and the horse you rode in on