Polish elections night!

[Martinus]

The polls close in about an hour. As of two hours ago, the turnout was approaching 40%, which is average for Poland.

Under Polish law, agencies cannot report exit poll results until the polls close, but from a rather reliable source, I heard that as of 6 p.m. the results were:

PO 34.5%
PiS 29.9%
RP (the liberal/leftist PO splitters) 11.1%
SLD (socialdemocrats) 10.5%
PSL (agrarians, PO's coalition partners) 9%
PJN (more moderate PiS splitters) 3%

The threshold to enter the parliament is 5%.

If these results hold up it means PO will continue to be in government, but they and PSL may just not have enough votes together to form a majority government, so this will get interesting. Their closest political force is RP (the "Palikot's Movement") but there is a lot of personal animosity, as the guy (the "hardcore alcoholic") wrote a book after leaving PO, smearing pretty much everyone. SLD are ex-commies however so this could tarnish PO's post-solidarity credentials.

PSL is also the easiest coalition partner for PO, as all they care about is farm subsidies/special farmer healthcare fund (which is preferential compared to what everyone else gets) and having positions in the government.

My personal prediction is that PO-PSL government is most likely, with RP and SLD supporting the minority government without entering it. With a good RP/SLD result, hopefully they and the liberal wing of PO will get enough votes to push through civil partnerships.

Also, RP getting more votes than SLD means that SLD will be seriously shaken as the main leftist party - the much disliked leader of SLD is almost certainly a goner anyway, but it remains to be seen if there are going to be more profound changes. It may be that after PiS has stolen the SLD's old social/welfare electorate, now RP is going to steal their young progressive/liberal electorate, leaving nothing to sustain themselves on.

[Habbaku]

  Hurrah for Poland getting out from under the potato.

[Martinus]

  Hurrah for Poland getting out from under the potato.

We haven't been under the potato for four years now. So it's the question if we get under the potato again.

[Razgovory]

So long as the Reds lose.

[Martinus]

I voted for RP. Considering this is their political debut, getting above 10% of votes in the Polish system (where incumbent parties get state funding and the upstart ones don't), is a big success.

[Iormlund]

I can't see that ever happening over here. 10% would be a dream come true for any new party.

[Martinus]

Public exit polls are in:

PO 39.6%
PiS 30.1%
RP 10.1%
PSL 8.2%
SLD 7.7%

I would be happy with such results. RP gets a decent vote, PO has enough advantage over PiS to rule without much problem and SLD is nearly a goner, meaning a decent leftist party (RP) not tainted by communist past can rise in its place.

[Martinus]

One thing I was worried about RP is that it could have done much worse in the elections than in the pre-election polls for one reason - the leader has a very high media profile, but most of its ordinary candidates are largely completely new to politics. These are various local activists (e.g. gay, or feminist, or pot legalisation ones), local businessmen and the like. That could mean that people would go to elections, not find any name they know on the lists and vote for someone else. Seems these fears were unfounded.

[Sahib]

Wow.
PiS got trashed.
SLD 

[Martinus]

Wow.
PiS got trashed.
SLD 

Who did you vote for?

[Martinus]

I can't see that ever happening over here. 10% would be a dream come true for any new party.

He was the only guy who credibly got the anti-clerical vote. Both PiS and PO are perceived as sucking the bishops' collective dicks (only PiS has more paleo-conservative bishops and PO has more "liberal" ones), and SLD has the post-communist past so they do not pick up many fights with the church. RP is the only party that credibly channelled the growing annoyance of the younger, progressive Polish generations with the omnipotence of the catholic church.

[Sahib]

Wow.
PiS got trashed.
SLD 

Who did you vote for?

PO.
I sympathize with Palikot's party ideas but I fear they will fail/disintegrate and and just end up hurting the cause.

[Martinus]

Good enough for me. I will not be surprised if RP does not survive the entire term, but I decided to vote for them because I want specific people who were running from their platform to get into the parliament, like Nowicka or Biedron.

For the GLBT community this is a historic moment - we have the first openly gay MP in the history of Polish democracy.

[Martinus]

LOL, from Kaczynski's concession speech. "We lost this time, but a day will come when we will win: Warsaw will become like Budapest one day!"

Tamas, are you happy that this guy considers your country an example of a well managed state?

[Zanza]

Good result for Poland I guess.

The Potato winning would have been more fun though. I miss his antics.