Justice Department move could put ruling on health law in thick of campaign

[jimmy olsen]

Ugh...another election fought over health care reform.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/09/26/7977908-justice-department-move-could-put-ruling-on-health-law-in-thick-of-campaign

Justice Department move could put ruling on health law in thick of campaign

By NBC's Pete Williams

A legal move Monday by the Obama administration greatly increases the odds that the US Supreme Court will take up the contentious issue of the new health care law during the court term that starts next week.

And if it does, that would mean a ruling from the Supreme Court by next spring -- as the presidential campaign is well underway.

The Justice Department had to decide what to do about the highest profile decision yet on the constitutionality of the law's requirement that virtually all Americans buy health insurance.  Acting in a lawsuit filed by 26 states, a three-judge panel of the federal appeals court in Atlanta ruled last month that Congress went too far in passing the law.

The government could have asked the full Atlanta appeals court to re-hear the case, which would have meant a further delay. But today, the Justice Department told the appeals court it will not seek that re-hearing.  That means the Obama administration plans to appeal to the US Supreme Court directly.  Most legal experts agree that the Supreme Court would almost certainly grant that request, even though other appeals courts are still hearing legal challenges to the health care law.

[Admiral Yi]

Hey Guller, wanna bet you can predict exactly the number of Justices who vote each way on this case? 

[DGuller]

Hey Guller, wanna bet you can predict exactly the number of Justices who vote each way on this case? 

Yes. 

[DGuller]

I bet it's going to be a 5-4 ruling overturning the mandate.  This obviously assumes that no force majeure happens, like, God forbid, Scalia slipping on a bar of soap in the bathroom.  Pick the over/under odds, Yi.

[alfred russel]

If they overturn the mandate, they need to overturn the bulk of the law. But what an opportunity for the republicans on the bench to leave the bulk of the law in place but overturn the mandate, ensuring that Obamacare is an epic disaster.

[Admiral Yi]

I bet it's going to be a 5-4 ruling overturning the mandate.  This obviously assumes that no force majeure happens, like, God forbid, Scalia slipping on a bar of soap in the bathroom.  Pick the over/under odds, Yi.

I'll take the field, $30 even money.

[Capetan Mihali]

I bet it's going to be a 5-4 ruling overturning the mandate.  This obviously assumes that no force majeure happens, like, God forbid, Scalia slipping on a bar of soap in the bathroom.  Pick the over/under odds, Yi.

I'll take the field, $30 even money.

What does taking the field mean?

[DGuller]

I bet it's going to be a 5-4 ruling overturning the mandate.  This obviously assumes that no force majeure happens, like, God forbid, Scalia slipping on a bar of soap in the bathroom.  Pick the over/under odds, Yi.

I'll take the field, $30 even money.

We need to work out the terms, though.  I propose that the bet is in force only if the current roster of 9 electors all vote on the case. 

If you agree to that, then I take the bet.  If the current 9 justices vote 5-4 in favor of overturning the mandate, I win $30.  If the current 9 justices all vote, and the total is something other than 5-4 to overturn the mandate, you win $30.  In all other cases, no money changes hands.

[Admiral Yi]

What does taking the field mean?

It means I win with every single possible outcome *except* 5-4 to overturn.

DG: not sure what you're getting at.  Bet is off if someone croaks?

[DGuller]

DG: not sure what you're getting at.  Bet is off if someone croaks?

Pretty much.  The point is, I want to just handicap how the nine justices we have now will vote, so the bet is on as long as those nine we have now are voting.  I don't want to start getting out actuarial tables to handicap the probability of one of the five Republicans pulling Ted Kennedy.

[Admiral Yi]

Deal.