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Morgan Stanley downgrades the world

Started by Tamas, August 18, 2011, 06:28:23 AM

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Tamas

stolen from this blog: http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/08/18/grinding-to-a-halt/

QuoteThis morning, Morgan Stanley put out a note with a downgrade of, well, planet earth.  The firm's look at the prospects for global growth this year makes for a very sobering read...

QuoteFrom Bloomberg:

Morgan Stanley cut its forecast for global growth this year, citing an "insufficient" policy response to Europe's sovereign debt crisis, weakened confidence and the prospect of fiscal tightening.

The bank estimates expansion of 3.9 percent, down from a previous forecast of 4.2 percent, according to an e-mailed report dated today. Morgan Stanley cut its China growth forecast for next year and Deutsche Bank AG reduced its estimates for the nation for 2011 and 2012.

The threat to the global economy from the debt burdens of developed nations from the U.S. to Europe has roiled world markets this month and wiped trillions of dollars off the value of equities. At the same time, slowing expansions in countries including Germany, the key driver of European growth, are hurting confidence.

The U.S. and Europe are "dangerously close to recession," Morgan Stanley analysts including Chetan Ahya said in the note.
I view this as a massive failure of central bankers from Europe to the US.  The programs they've embarked on have meant nothing and cost us everything.  The best we can hope for is to bump along at 1 or 2% growth in the US and avoid recession.  In Europe, the best they can hope for a continuance of the masquerade that a currency union without taxing authority or a standing army is even possible.  As for China, they better pray that their best customers don't fall too hard.


11B4V

"there's a long tradition of insulting people we disagree with here, and I'll be damned if I listen to your entreaties otherwise."-OVB

"Obviously not a Berkut-commanded armored column.  They're not all brewing."- CdM

"We've reached one of our phase lines after the firefight and it smells bad—meaning it's a little bit suspicious... Could be an amb—".

Tamas

Not sure where I read it recently (maybe it was here) but the western governments' toolbox looks awfully empty this time around.

Decrease interest rates? To where? Deficit-spend? lol

CountDeMoney

Quote from: 11B4V on August 18, 2011, 06:30:00 AM
Screw those mother fuckers.

QuoteOne winter, a Farmer found a Snake stiff and frozen with cold. He had compassion on it, and taking it up, placed it in his bosom. The Snake was quickly revived by the warmth, and resuming its natural instincts, bit its benefactor, inflicting on him a mortal wound.

"Oh," cried the Farmer with his last breath, "I am rightly served for pitying a scoundrel."

The greatest kindness will not bind the ungrateful.

11B4V

Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 18, 2011, 06:52:14 AM
Quote from: 11B4V on August 18, 2011, 06:30:00 AM
Screw those mother fuckers.

QuoteOne winter, a Farmer found a Snake stiff and frozen with cold. He had compassion on it, and taking it up, placed it in his bosom. The Snake was quickly revived by the warmth, and resuming its natural instincts, bit its benefactor, inflicting on him a mortal wound.

"Oh," cried the Farmer with his last breath, "I am rightly served for pitying a scoundrel."

The greatest kindness will not bind the ungrateful.
Heard that before but in a different context. Had a fox and a snake or turtle and a snake or some shit like that.
"there's a long tradition of insulting people we disagree with here, and I'll be damned if I listen to your entreaties otherwise."-OVB

"Obviously not a Berkut-commanded armored column.  They're not all brewing."- CdM

"We've reached one of our phase lines after the firefight and it smells bad—meaning it's a little bit suspicious... Could be an amb—".

HVC

Being lazy is bad; unless you still get what you want, then it's called "patience".
Hubris must be punished. Severely.

Valmy

QuoteThe U.S. and Europe are "dangerously close to recession," Morgan Stanley analysts including Chetan Ahya said in the note.

Damn.  I thought we were dangerously in a recession this whole time.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

HVC

Quote from: Valmy on August 18, 2011, 08:16:01 AM
QuoteThe U.S. and Europe are “dangerously close to recession,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Chetan Ahya said in the note.

Damn.  I thought we were dangerously in a recession this whole time.
our recession has hit a recession
Being lazy is bad; unless you still get what you want, then it's called "patience".
Hubris must be punished. Severely.

11B4V

"there's a long tradition of insulting people we disagree with here, and I'll be damned if I listen to your entreaties otherwise."-OVB

"Obviously not a Berkut-commanded armored column.  They're not all brewing."- CdM

"We've reached one of our phase lines after the firefight and it smells bad—meaning it's a little bit suspicious... Could be an amb—".

MadImmortalMan

I wonder if the world has an etf I can short.

Ah, screw it. I have puts on Morgan Stanley that are doing quite nicely this morning.  :lol:
"Stability is destabilizing." --Hyman Minsky

"Complacency can be a self-denying prophecy."
"We have nothing to fear but lack of fear itself." --Larry Summers

Admiral Yi

Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 18, 2011, 06:52:14 AM
Quote from: 11B4V on August 18, 2011, 06:30:00 AM
Screw those mother fuckers.

QuoteOne winter, a Farmer found a Snake stiff and frozen with cold. He had compassion on it, and taking it up, placed it in his bosom. The Snake was quickly revived by the warmth, and resuming its natural instincts, bit its benefactor, inflicting on him a mortal wound.

"Oh," cried the Farmer with his last breath, "I am rightly served for pitying a scoundrel."

The greatest kindness will not bind the ungrateful.

Bizzareness.

Scipio

What I speak out of my mouth is the truth.  It burns like fire.
-Jose Canseco

There you go, giving a fuck when it ain't your turn to give a fuck.
-Every cop, The Wire

"It is always good to be known for one's Krapp."
-John Hurt

CountDeMoney

Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 18, 2011, 01:45:24 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 18, 2011, 06:52:14 AM
Quote from: 11B4V on August 18, 2011, 06:30:00 AM
Screw those mother fuckers.

QuoteOne winter, a Farmer found a Snake stiff and frozen with cold. He had compassion on it, and taking it up, placed it in his bosom. The Snake was quickly revived by the warmth, and resuming its natural instincts, bit its benefactor, inflicting on him a mortal wound.

"Oh," cried the Farmer with his last breath, "I am rightly served for pitying a scoundrel."

The greatest kindness will not bind the ungrateful.

Bizzareness.

Of course you wouldn't get it.

grumbler

Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 18, 2011, 05:33:15 PM
Of course you wouldn't get it.
Not much to "get" - it is a stupid story.  Even "bizarre." A "Farmer" puts a "Snake" to his "bosom?"  WTF kind of "Farmer" puts a "Snake" to his "bosom?"
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

DGuller