Who Wins WWI if America Doesn't Enter the War?

[jimmy olsen]

If Germany does not renew unrestricted submarine warfare and provoke the US into the war, who wins?

I say the Central Powers. Britain and France go broke without American loans and have to come to the negotiating table.

[MadImmortalMan]

US entry merely accelerated Germany's defeat. It was already a done deal. It turned "we're gonna lose" into "oh fuck make it stop right now" for the Kaiser. No change.

Unless you think the League of Nations did anything...

[Warspite]

If Germany does not renew unrestricted submarine warfare and provoke the US into the war, who wins?

I say the Central Powers. Britain and France go broke without American loans and have to come to the negotiating table.

How do Britain and France, the very centres of international finance, go broke before a blockaded and starved Germany?

The loss of the psychological and military impact of American manpower is a telling blow for sure, but Germany's game is up regardless.

[jimmy olsen]

If Germany does not renew unrestricted submarine warfare and provoke the US into the war, who wins?

I say the Central Powers. Britain and France go broke without American loans and have to come to the negotiating table.

How do Britain and France, the very centres of international finance, go broke before a blockaded and starved Germany?

Britain and France were importing vast amounts of food, raw material and weapons/munitions and Germany was not. American loans were drying up and without American entry into the war would have stopped.

[Tamas]

I think you are underestimating the moral factor of the US entry. The French army was pulled back from the brink of collapse a couple of times by the time of the Yankee entry.

Of course, if the Entente moral held up, Germany would had been done for due to the blockade. But both sides were severly exhausted moral-wise

[grumbler]

How do Britain and France, the very centres of international finance, go broke before a blockaded and starved Germany?

The loss of the psychological and military impact of American manpower is a telling blow for sure, but Germany's game is up regardless.

This.  Had the US not entered and Grmany come up with Stosstactics a year earlier, I would vote the other way.  By 1917/1918, it was too late.

[Warspite]

If Germany does not renew unrestricted submarine warfare and provoke the US into the war, who wins?

I say the Central Powers. Britain and France go broke without American loans and have to come to the negotiating table.

How do Britain and France, the very centres of international finance, go broke before a blockaded and starved Germany?

Britain and France were importing vast amounts of food, raw material and weapons/munitions and Germany was not. American loans were drying up and without American entry into the war would have stopped.

Germany had an autarkic economy in WW1? This is news to me.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I don't see any logic in Germany's inability to import (due to the British blockade) being regarded as a plus point for the Central Powers.

[jimmy olsen]

If Germany does not renew unrestricted submarine warfare and provoke the US into the war, who wins?

I say the Central Powers. Britain and France go broke without American loans and have to come to the negotiating table.

How do Britain and France, the very centres of international finance, go broke before a blockaded and starved Germany?

Britain and France were importing vast amounts of food, raw material and weapons/munitions and Germany was not. American loans were drying up and without American entry into the war would have stopped.

Germany had an autarkic economy in WW1? This is news to me.

Of course it wasn't. However French credit had collapsed. By 1917 the British were to a great extent subsidizing the French war effort. With the exhaustion of British collateral, loans from America would have ceased and the British would not be able to subsidize the French anymore.

[Josquius]

Britain and France could still get loans and goods from the US, US in the war or not.

It would be the entente. Germany was on the ropes, it was absolutely screwed. France was also looking a bit shakey but I think it could hold out long enough.

[jimmy olsen]

Britain and France could still get loans and goods from the US, US in the war or not.

It would be the entente. Germany was on the ropes, it was absolutely screwed. France was also looking a bit shakey but I think it could hold out long enough.

US banks weren't gonna take IOUs.
The US guaranteed loans to Britain and France when they entered the war, that won't happen here.

[Scipio]

I'm pretty sure that America wins.

[Josquius]

Britain and France could still get loans and goods from the US, US in the war or not.

It would be the entente. Germany was on the ropes, it was absolutely screwed. France was also looking a bit shakey but I think it could hold out long enough.

US banks weren't gonna take IOUs.

Aint that how loans work?

[Ed Anger]

I'm pretty sure that America wins.

Dead Euros and raking in the cash? Win win.

[Warspite]

Britain and France could still get loans and goods from the US, US in the war or not.

It would be the entente. Germany was on the ropes, it was absolutely screwed. France was also looking a bit shakey but I think it could hold out long enough.

US banks weren't gonna take IOUs.
The US guaranteed loans to Britain and France when they entered the war, that won't happen here.

This wasn't some discretionary expeditionary endeavour. There is a great deal of ruin in a nation, and the UK and France were willing to do what it took to raise the funds somehow, anyhow. Meanwhile, German calorie consumption is sinking and the nation is awash with ersatz foodstuffs.

What probably happens is that the post-war settlement is even more punishing for Germany, because the Entente are even worse off than historically.