Game of Thrones begins....

[Tamas]

The latter is clearly explained by Maester Luwin when he speaks with the Bran and friends.

His explanation doesn't make any sense.  Sure, they shouldn't head south because they could get bushwacked by Lannisters.  But what's the risk of staying in Winterfell?

you'll see in Season 3

[Josquius]

There was a suggestion of going to the Crag with Robb but iirc she avoided the trip despite her knowing what the Crag's maester had to give to Robb.

What did the maester have? I can't recall that bit

[Tamas]

me neither

[Viking]

There was a suggestion of going to the Crag with Robb but iirc she avoided the trip despite her knowing what the Crag's maester had to give to Robb.

What did the maester have? I can't recall that bit

medical supplies

[jimmy olsen]

Just caught a rerun of the finale.

I was more or less OK with the tiny dragons napalming the wizard.

What I didn't get was Theon getting sandbagged by his men, then the men going home...right through the 500 beseiging dudes?? And why did cripple boy and crew take off?  The bad guys were gone.

Rob offered mercy for all if they gave up Theon.

[Viking]

Just caught a rerun of the finale.

I was more or less OK with the tiny dragons napalming the wizard.

What I didn't get was Theon getting sandbagged by his men, then the men going home...right through the 500 beseiging dudes?? And why did cripple boy and crew take off?  The bad guys were gone.

Rob offered mercy for all if they gave up Theon.

Robb may have, but I'm pretty sure Ramsey didn't even on TV.

[The Larch]

I don't buy that they gave up Theon, Balon would go mental at them when they got back to the Iron Islands. I guess that they wanted to sneak back to the shore, instead of going down in a blaze of glory in Winterfell, and Theon was an obstacle for that.

[grumbler]

Robb may have, but I'm pretty sure Ramsey didn't even on TV.

There is no Ramsey yet in the TV series. The fall of Winterfell occurs in a different, simpler fashion in the show.  There is no reason to believe that Ramsey wouldn't have carried out his father's orders and thus made a deal with the Ironmen.

I don't understand how this could be a mystery to anyone.  It was laid out pretty explicitly.

His explanation doesn't make any sense.  Sure, they shouldn't head south because they could get bushwacked by Lannisters.  But what's the risk of staying in Winterfell?

Who do you think burned Winterfell?

[grumbler]

I don't buy that they gave up Theon, Balon would go mental at them when they got back to the Iron Islands. I guess that they wanted to sneak back to the shore, instead of going down in a blaze of glory in Winterfell, and Theon was an obstacle for that.

Balon would go mental if they told what really happened.  If they lied, then he wouldn't.  Faced with the choice of dying on the spot or maybe making their lies stick, they chose the latter.  It was a violation of their codes, perhaps, but we find that sort of thing all the time in the histories.

[jimmy olsen]

Just caught a rerun of the finale.

I was more or less OK with the tiny dragons napalming the wizard.

What I didn't get was Theon getting sandbagged by his men, then the men going home...right through the 500 beseiging dudes?? And why did cripple boy and crew take off?  The bad guys were gone.

Rob offered mercy for all if they gave up Theon.

Robb may have, but I'm pretty sure Ramsey didn't even on TV.

Ironmen don't know that Ramsey will backstab them though.

^^^
Grumbler, Roose Bolton said his bastard is in command. They haven't introduced him to the audience yet, but he's there.

[The Larch]

I don't buy that they gave up Theon, Balon would go mental at them when they got back to the Iron Islands. I guess that they wanted to sneak back to the shore, instead of going down in a blaze of glory in Winterfell, and Theon was an obstacle for that.

Balon would go mental if they told what really happened.  If they lied, then he wouldn't.  Faced with the choice of dying on the spot or maybe making their lies stick, they chose the latter.  It was a violation of their codes, perhaps, but we find that sort of thing all the time in the histories.

If they gave up Theon to the Northmen Balon would find out sooner or later, I don't think that's a safe route. My bet would be on them being in cahoots with Theon's sister, which visited Winterfell and advised them to give up the fortress and run away.

[grumbler]

Grumbler, Roose Bolton said his bastard is in command. They haven't introduced him to the audience yet, but he's there.

He says "my bastard" not "Ramsey Snow."  So Ramsey's not in the show yet, exactly as I noted.

The point i am making (and which you appear to be missing) is that the character wasn't shown making a deal with the Ironmen because the character hasn't appeared in the show yet.  The implication clearly is that the deal was made, though, so there is no mystery as to why the Ironmen sapped Theon.

[grumbler]

If they gave up Theon to the Northmen Balon would find out sooner or later, I don't think that's a safe route.

Safer than fighting 500 men with 20.  And how would Balon know Theon wasn't captured in battle, as the returning Ironmen would allege?  Who in the North would send that message to Balon, and why would balon believe the message if sent?

My bet would be on them being in cahoots with Theon's sister, which visited Winterfell and advised them to give up the fortress and run away.

Why would Theon's sister ride all the way to Winterfell to convince her brother to evacuate, and then conspire with his men to sap him and turn him over to the Northmen?  That doesn't make sense to me.

I think the simplest solution, the one supported by the dialogue, is also the most likely:  Theon's crew cut a deal.

[The Larch]

If they gave up Theon to the Northmen Balon would find out sooner or later, I don't think that's a safe route.

Safer than fighting 500 men with 20.  And how would Balon know Theon wasn't captured in battle, as the returning Ironmen would allege?  Who in the North would send that message to Balon, and why would balon believe the message if sent?

Sure it's better in the short term, but not in the long term. It's as easy as sending a message to Balon saying that his men were a bunch of rats which delivered Theon to them for their own safety and they'd be sentenced to death on the spot.

My bet would be on them being in cahoots with Theon's sister, which visited Winterfell and advised them to give up the fortress and run away.

Why would Theon's sister ride all the way to Winterfell to convince her brother to evacuate, and then conspire with his men to sap him and turn him over to the Northmen?  That doesn't make sense to me.

I think the simplest solution, the one supported by the dialogue, is also the most likely:  Theon's crew cut a deal.

Wrong assumption, when did I say that his sister wanted him to be given to the Northmen? They could just carry him unconscious and/or tied up back to the shore.

[Josephus]

The latter is clearly explained by Maester Luwin when he speaks with the Bran and friends.

His explanation doesn't make any sense.  Sure, they shouldn't head south because they could get bushwacked by Lannisters.  But what's the risk of staying in Winterfell?

Well without knowing what happens in Book 3, they showed an image of Winterfell burning, so staying there wasn't an option unless they wanted to be barbecued. I'm not sure who burned it though.