Sovereign debt bubble thread

[Ideologue]

Tim Geithner has experience flying around the world to address finance ministers and instructing them on how to solve their problems. He was a senior executive at the IMF from 2011 to 2003, after all — a period which coincided with major sovereign crises in South America.

That guy must have a really fast plane.

[jimmy olsen]

Spain was downgraded today.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/19/eurozone-idUSL3E7LJ09P20111019

[Crazy_Ivan80]

at least when europe goes, everyone goes.

[Iormlund]

We'll take all of you fuckers with us.

[Admiral Yi]

Just read in the FT that Euronegotiators are asking holders of Greek bonds to accept 40 cents on the dollar.

[MadImmortalMan]

They haven't actually reached an agreement on that. This is just going on and on and on and on. Trying to follow it is downright painful. Headlines are like: agreement reached on summit meeting, summit delayed, agreement reached to meet again, meeting adjourned with consensus to discuss possible options, framework agreed to recapitalize X-details to follow, finance ministers agree to meeting to discuss details of X, meeting delayed, meeting rescheduled but this time heads of state will be there...


Blah blah blah. Isn't anyone noticing that nothing is actually happening? In the meantime all this bullshit is pumping and dumping the markets and destroying vast quantities of wealth. It's been two years. Come on already.

[Admiral Yi]

Well, the bondholder committee was asking for 60 cents in the article so they're on the same page.

[DGuller]

Well, the bondholder committee was asking for 60 cents in the article so they're on the same page.

More like they're on the same chapter.  Chapter 11, to be exact.

[Admiral Yi]

[KRonn]

We'll take all of you fuckers with us.

Heh, indeed you will!

[Sheilbh]

Just read in the FT that Euronegotiators are asking holders of Greek bonds to accept 40 cents on the dollar.

That's what's being talked about, but it looks like there's no deal - remember many Euro-states still haven't passed the July deal.  I think a lot's based on the Troika's report here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8843031/Troika-report-on-Greek-debt-full-text.html

[MadImmortalMan]

We need to just lock these assholes in a room and tell them they aren't getting out and they aren't getting fed until they find a comprehensive solution and agree to it.

[Admiral Yi]

That's what's being talked about, but it looks like there's no deal - remember many Euro-states still haven't passed the July deal.  I think a lot's based on the Troika's report here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8843031/Troika-report-on-Greek-debt-full-text.html

Of course there's no deal.  There won't be until the bondholder committee agrees.

[Sheilbh]

Of course there's no deal.  There won't be until the bondholder committee agrees.

I mean more widely that the Eurosummit on Wednesday's been cancelled and the EFSF may not be sufficiently capitalised.  Rumours are that Berlusconi's still not delivered a credible plan (I read the government's on the edge of collapse over pension reform - the Northern League won't even consider it) and Merkel's having to be quite hard due to some Bundestag votes.

Edit:  Also just read the IMF may be considering putting money into the EFSF.

[Sheilbh]

Bossi's agreed to pensions reform, liberalisation and a bureaucracy cull, in exchange Berlusconi's going to step down in January and bring forward elections to early 2012 (I think that's when it was assumed they'd take place anyway).  So Italy may not get laughed out the room by France and Germany this time.

Edit:
Not so serious after all, from the Guardian's man in Rome:

This is going to be a day of fevered rumours, so perhaps we can start by sorting out the wheat from the chaff in the story of Berlusconi's reported pledge to resign.

    All the Italian newspapers today are reporting that he and his chief ally, Umberto Bossi of the Northern League, cut a deal last night to increase the age at which Italians qualify for an old age pension to 67 – but only in 2026. The education minister, Mariastella Gelmini told a TV interviewer the idea was to raise the age "for men and women in the public sector and the private, gradually increasing the pensionable age from 2012 to 2025".

    That only represents a modification of existing plans, and according to most reports this morning, it is the sole firm pledge contained in a long (14- or 15-page) letter that Berlusconi will take to Brussels to set before his fellow-European leaders. No one thinks they will be much impressed.

    The key point is that Bossi has successfully blocked Berlusconi's plan to abolish Italy's separate time-in-work pensions, which allow some people in Italy to retire unusually early.

    The opposition La Repubblica alone reports that, in order to get this minimal concession from his ally, the prime minister entered a "secret pact" to stand down in January, opening the way for elections in March. But this has been the expectation in Italy for months now, and the paper's story has prompted little interest here.

    La Repubblica, by the way, is not making much of its scoop on its website. The link to the story is seven lines below the picture of Bossi where it says "Alle urne a marzo".