Hungarian Politics

[Valmy]

Oh and in term of global stupidification, he mentioned: "the US is about to choose between a complete idiot and a senile old man".  Funny because it is true.

It's true.

All the way with Senile Old Man 24!

[Josquius]

Oh and in term of global stupidification, he mentioned: "the US is about to choose between a complete idiot and a senile old man".  Funny because it is true.

Under what definition would Trump not also be a "senile old man"?

Yeah. I don't get this one people keep repeating.
Trump is older than Biden was when the attacks on his age really kicked off last election.
And considering trump looks after himself a lot worse... I do think in body he is far older.

[Tamas]

Oh and in term of global stupidification, he mentioned: "the US is about to choose between a complete idiot and a senile old man".  Funny because it is true.

Under what definition would Trump not also be a "senile old man"?

Yeah. I don't get this one people keep repeating.
Trump is older than Biden was when the attacks on his age really kicked off last election.
And considering trump looks after himself a lot worse... I do think in body he is far older.

Why do people get so defensive on this? Yes Trump is very clearly far more senile and degraded mentally than Biden. But even in his prime Trump was a terrible choice for a President. Even if you remove his senility he is a terrible choice and his candidacy alone is damning testament on his his part and by extension his country let alone his previous Presidency.

Joe Biden would be perfectly servicable (even good) candidate and President if it wasn't for his very advanced age. The fact that his party could not produce anyone better than a decent but very old man who should be retiring, is a damning testament on his party and by extension his country.

[garbon]

Oh and in term of global stupidification, he mentioned: "the US is about to choose between a complete idiot and a senile old man".  Funny because it is true.

Under what definition would Trump not also be a "senile old man"?

Yeah. I don't get this one people keep repeating.
Trump is older than Biden was when the attacks on his age really kicked off last election.
And considering trump looks after himself a lot worse... I do think in body he is far older.

Why do people get so defensive on this? Yes Trump is very clearly far more senile and degraded mentally than Biden. But even in his prime Trump was a terrible choice for a President. Even if you remove his senility he is a terrible choice and his candidacy alone is damning testament on his his part and by extension his country let alone his previous Presidency.

Joe Biden would be perfectly servicable (even good) candidate and President if it wasn't for his very advanced age. The fact that his party could not produce anyone better than a decent but very old man who should be retiring, is a damning testament on his party and by extension his country.

None of that seems to answer our question.

[Sheilbh]

Joe Biden would be perfectly servicable (even good) candidate and President if it wasn't for his very advanced age. The fact that his party could not produce anyone better than a decent but very old man who should be retiring, is a damning testament on his party and by extension his country.

I think Biden has been a pretty good President.

But on the Democrats bench I found Biden appointing John Podesta (75, formerly of the Clinton and Obama Administrations) to replace John Kerry (80, candidate and then in Obama Administration).

I fully get that part of the reason the GOP burns through politicians is because of the firebrands get elected, then the base decide they're moderates and turn on them cycle. But they do appear capable of making space at the top for new blood occasionally.

Honestly I just feel like someone should introduce these elders to golf and let them retire.

[garbon]

Introduce Trump to golf?

[Valmy]

Joe Biden would be perfectly servicable (even good) candidate and President if it wasn't for his very advanced age. The fact that his party could not produce anyone better than a decent but very old man who should be retiring, is a damning testament on his party and by extension his country.

Is that true? We have tons of Democratic Senators and Governors. Some of them even well known. There is no particular reason they couldn't run and be a decent president.

The Democrats just aren't doing it. The reason is because they are afraid their base wants the Bernie Sanders and AOC types and so they are using Biden because of his name recognition and association with the Obama presidency. They are afraid the left will be ascendent if they open it up and that will hurt them with their donors. At least that is my guess based on the last primary in 2020.

But they will have to open it up eventually.

[garbon]

Joe Biden would be perfectly servicable (even good) candidate and President if it wasn't for his very advanced age. The fact that his party could not produce anyone better than a decent but very old man who should be retiring, is a damning testament on his party and by extension his country.

Is that true? We have tons of Democratic Senators and Governors. Some of them even well known. There is no particular reason they couldn't run and be a decent president.

The Democrats just aren't doing it. The reason is because they are afraid their base wants the Bernie Sanders and AOC types and so they are using Biden because of his name recognition and association with the Obama presidency. They are afraid the left will be ascendent if they open it up and that will hurt them with their donors. At least that is my guess based on the last primary in 2020.

But they will have to open it up eventually.

I don't know how accurate that narrative is.

If we trust wikipedia, the 2020 Dem primary had:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

A total of 29 major candidates declared their candidacies for the primaries, the largest field of presidential primary candidates for any American political party since the modern primaries began in 1972, exceeding the field of 17 major candidates in the 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries.

...

18 of the 29 declared candidates withdrew before the formal beginning of the primary due to low polling, fundraising, and media coverage

And while true that many left before the primary season truly started, we also know that a shit ton of them participated in debates prior to voting commencing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_debates

There were a total of 29 major Democratic candidates. Of these, 23 candidates participated in at least one debate. Only Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders participated in all the debates; Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Elizabeth Warren participated in all but the final debate

So on contention 1) field was pretty open in 2020 - with many well known Dem congresspeople. Not a surprise field not so open in 2024 when we already have an incumbent.

With regards to closing out the left, I recall and wiki suggests that the leftist candidate ascendant was Bernie and he only got taken down once the moderate vote consolidated.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

The first primary was marred by controversy, as technical issues with vote reporting resulted in a three-day delay in vote counting in the Iowa caucus, as well as subsequent recounts. The certified results of the caucus eventually showed Mayor Pete Buttigieg winning the most delegates, while Senator Bernie Sanders won the popular vote in the state. Sanders then won the New Hampshire primary in a narrow victory over Buttigieg before handily winning the Nevada caucus, solidifying Sanders' status as the front-runner for the nomination.

Biden, whose campaign fortunes had suffered from losses in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, made a comeback by overwhelmingly winning the South Carolina primary, motivated by strong support from African American voters, an endorsement from South Carolina U.S. Representative Jim Clyburn, as well as Democratic establishment concerns about nominating Sanders. After Biden won South Carolina, and one day before the Super Tuesday primaries, several candidates dropped out of the race and endorsed Biden in what was viewed as a consolidation of the party's moderate wing. Prior to the announcement, polling saw Sanders leading with a plurality in most Super Tuesday states. Biden then won 10 out of 15 contests on Super Tuesday, beating back challenges from Sanders, Warren, and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, solidifying his lead.

I guess that could be the party leaders coalescing to prevent the left from capturing the presidency but it equally could be said that there were enough voters who wanted a moderate candidate that once the moderate vote wasn't split across many candidates, a moderate candidate won.

Finally on age which was where this all started, Bernie is a year older than Biden. So even in the 2020 primary, before moderates got behind Biden, the Dems were initially tracking to elect a very old man.

[Jacob]

That's a reasonable analysis garbon.

[Sheilbh]

Totally agree on 2020 - what I'd add there is that it's striking that the three candidates who did best were all north of 75: Warren, Sanders, Biden. I think that is something that should cause a bit of soul searching within the party about why that was - especially in a winnable year and I think a very important year.

It was very open, unlike 2016 (and I rate Biden but I wish he'd run then, understanding entirely why he didn't). I think it is possible the leadership fear a turn to the left with Sanders two surprisingly successful runs - and also the example of the GOP.

But the other thing I'd add is the key bit to Biden's coalition in 2020 was African-American voters - it was Jim Clyburn and South Carolina which transformed Biden's chances, especially with upcoming southern states and many on Super Tuesday too.

I think one of the questions on 2020 and Biden has to be why so few other candidates - and none of the younger ones - seemed to really win over African-American voters who are absolutely core to the Democrats. I think moderate v left is part of it and I wouldn't purely elide African-American voters with moderate Democrats but it's clear you had some, like Buttigieg, who were able to appeal to the latter without making any real in-roads with the former.

And as a leftie part of me wonders if that's partly, with the possible exception of Obama, it's really difficult to balance the college educated camp (either from the left like Warren, or centre like Buttigieg) while still appealing to working class voters particularly minorities and especially Black voters in the US - and Biden shows that, perhaps, the latter is still the most important bloc at a Presidential level because of how the primaries work. It is perhaps precisely the stuff that people on social and mainstream media feel is a bit cringey about Biden (which I love personally) that actually is core to his appeal?

[Tamas]

A great incident to show the nature of the regime.

Couple of years ago a school (can't remember if elementary or high school) director and his assistant director were jailed for pedophilia. The actual pedo was the director, having sexual acts with boy students, but the assistant at some point coerced one of the kids into revoking his testimony, himself typing the changed "testimony" such as "I lied we did not jerk each other off" stuff like that. So for aiding and abiding or whatever, he the assistant was also sent to prison.

Until about a week ago when he received a presidential pardon.

Now, the President has been a completely useless human stamping machine since Orban came to power. Absolutely zero independence, especially since the current lady took over the post, she is part of the generation of politicians who have absolutely no achievement independent of being lifted up by Orban in exchange of unquestionable loyalty.

So ever since the news broke there has been rising outrage. "Pedo-protecting Fidesz" is a message very much on the political discourse level that Fidesz worked so hard to spread since 2002.

So first they unleashed their own influencers who all launched a campaign making videos about their own outrage of the "left" being so outrageously double-faced as to accuse others of pedophilia when they are the ones looking to make children in kindergarten have gender-change surgery.

I guess that one hasn't worked because Orban announced he is proposing a change to the constitution so that the President will be explicitly forbidden from pardoning people sentenced for crimes against children.

Now of course the theatre that the President has any sort of autonomy is outrageous enough, but throwing her under the bus becomes even juicier when you consider what's the likely reason the pedo-aider got pardoned. It's his connections, of course.

As it was revealed by journalists a day or so into the scandal, the pedo-aider was enthusiastic and successful in working their way into the Fidesz circles of  Orbans home region. Apparently there are lots of sightings of him in news archives being around local dignitaries and taking part in events. There is also some sort of an organisational/business relation with Orban's brother.

[HVC]

The president has now resigned.

[Tamas]

The president has now resigned.

So did the Minister of Justice (incidentally the other female in government) who co-signed the President's pardon decision.

Zero sympathy from me for either. Two nauseating persons, part of the "young" generation lifted up by Orban and consequently zero political achievements on their own resulting in absolute loyalty to the King. The justice minister just always seen like a very unpleasant person (I think she is one of the closeted homosexuals in Fidesz who actively assisted in the persecution of their brethren, but I admit that's just a vibe with no proof).

And the president was predictably terrible as well, signing everything put in front of her (including as we can see, pardoning aides of pedophiles) and she had been touring the world including Ukraine to play the good cop next to Orban.

But, the justice minister's ex-husband has come public since the resignations about his criticism of the all-encompassing cronyism and corruption. He had been a bit of a nobody but with some mid-level positions. Before the divorce a year or so ago he was last heard of being bailed from some money-distributing position to joining the army and then catapulted into some fairly senior rank. Will be interesting to see if anything comes of this. We will know if he is a true risk to the regime, if he suffers an accident or commits suicide on the back seat of a police car, like a couple of people similar to him in the past.

Incidentally, in his interview last night (again on the far-left (as in declaredly communist) Youtube channel "Partizan" that has grown out to replace state media as a platform for political debates and interviews) he reflected on the points we have been discussing in the Brexit thread. For a while he was in charge of the authority responsible for those highways which had not been sold to Orban's human wallet, so, according to him, he was a frequent annoyance because he not always approved certain construction projects, although the context was that he did approve most. According to him projects sent to his team for approval (so already accepted by local councils or other authorities) routinely had suppliers/contractors quoting 3 to 6 times over market rates. Apparently after some particular non-approval he received a very thinly veiled threat that enough is enough, after which he resigned (I think that's when he was given the army job, since by that time his still-wife was a big shot).

He highlighted Orban's Goebbels-Beria hybrid, Antal Rogan, as a key man behind the scenes and essentially warned Orban against him.

[Tamas]

Not that it matters but I was wrong, the soldier guy jumping from reserves fresh recruit to reserves colonel is the husband of the ex-president, not the justice minister.

These two couples kind of look alike:

President:



Minister of Justice:

[Tamas]

This whole thing might continue to spiral downwards (from Orban's point of view).

As I understand the scandal has been successfully turned into a conversation about the (pretty bad) situation of vulnerable children in the country in the social media space. Tonight there's going to be a demonstration for those children in Budapest, endorsed and attended by a number of non-government influencers including this singer/artist dude called Azahriah whom I did not know existed until about half a year ago when he sold out like 2 consecutive concert nights at the country's biggest stadium.

The problem from a Fidesz point of view is that "protecting the children" had been made the MOST CRUCIAL ISSUE by them for the past several years, it was the basis from (partially) pivoting from hating immigrants to hating homosexuals. They have made this their big raison d'etre (protecting kindergarteners from gender change surgery and other similarly pressing issues), so suddenly they find themselves on the pointy end of the knife they were sharpening against their opponents.

Still, it can easily die down from here, I mean the total control of the media, including ridiculous amounts spent on social media adverts and presence, remains.

But, something feels off at the moment. Orban has had almost complete radio silence (hasn't made a comment on the President of Hungary resigning, for example, not to mention his Minister of Justice) and as always, when minions are left to their own device they talk and do stupidly.

Mainly, after the resignation of the President, focus switched on her once-mentor Zoltan Balog whom several sources identified as the driving force behind the pedo-amnesty. I first thought this was a distraction to make sure the direct Orban family connection (which is fairly visible) with the amnestied guy is dropped, but maybe not so.

Balog used to be an influential minister (despite looking like a dimwit) who has years ago moved on to be promoted into a Reformed bishop of the country.

So this Balog guy wanted to nip rumours in the bud and talked to the press... long story short, while doing so, he essentially admitted that yes he discussed the amnesty with the President -although he was quick to highlight it was her decision not his- and that he (and that means the President as well) was aware of the crimes the pedo-aider made, he just felt he was treated unfairly and according to "Christian forgiveness" should be forgiven. Right.

The Reformed church moved to remove him but so far he has managed to secure enough votes to stay in his seat, thereby pushing that organisation into turmoil, although whether that matters at all I am not sure.

So, there's clear chaos on the government's end and escalation into more trouble for them seems plausible.

But then again, when the Russian invasion started there was also clear indecisiveness and chaos in their communication rank, and they did manage to turn that fiasco into an election-winning narrative of being "on the side pf peace". So, will see.