Libyan Civil War Megathread

[The Brain]

WTF is Obama waiting for?

This seems pretty damn simple. There is a revolution against a despot, and the people revolting are pro-democracy.

Why aren't we helping them, if in fact they want our help - and reports seem to indicate that they do in fact want that help.

Neocons.

[Caliga]

Is that really a neocon position?  I thought neocons always acted in America's best self-interest, and I'm not sure if deposing Gadhafi is actually in our best interest, especially if we don't know what sort of government the opposition would replace Gadhafi's regime with.

[citizen k]

Is that really a neocon position?  I thought neocons always acted in America's best self-interest, and I'm not sure if deposing Gadhafi is actually in our best interest, especially if we don't know what sort of government the opposition would replace Gadhafi's regime with.

I think neocons are more evangelistic than that. Remember they were originally liberals who wanted a more activist foreign policy.

[HisMajestyBOB]

WTF is Obama waiting for?

This seems pretty damn simple. There is a revolution against a despot, and the people revolting are pro-democracy.

Why aren't we helping them, if in fact they want our help - and reports seem to indicate that they do in fact want that help.

1. It takes a while to set up a no-fly-zone. It's not something you want to rush into, and moreover it's nice to have diplomatic cover in the form of a UN resolution.
2. At least some of the rebels appear to be pretty xenophobic. Putting boots on the ground is not, IMO, a good idea, and we'll want to make sure the rebels A. can win and B. would put in place an acceptable government. Heck, the rebels aren't even unified - there's no one person or group we can talk with or cooperate with. Setting up a NFZ and bombing a few places won't help if the rebels are disorganized and unable to take advantage of it, or even collapse into infighting.

That said, it would be nice if Obama pushed harder. Even if it was just a "Ghaddaffi should step down now" statement/ultimatum.

[Caliga]

Yeah... how much you want to bet that if Gadhafi is overthrown, the rebels will immediately start fighting each other to determine who succeeds him?  This could be another Somalia in the making.

[Berkut]

WTF is Obama waiting for?

This seems pretty damn simple. There is a revolution against a despot, and the people revolting are pro-democracy.

Why aren't we helping them, if in fact they want our help - and reports seem to indicate that they do in fact want that help.

1. It takes a while to set up a no-fly-zone. It's not something you want to rush into, and moreover it's nice to have diplomatic cover in the form of a UN resolution.
2. At least some of the rebels appear to be pretty xenophobic. Putting boots on the ground is not, IMO, a good idea, and we'll want to make sure the rebels A. can win and B. would put in place an acceptable government. Heck, the rebels aren't even unified - there's no one person or group we can talk with or cooperate with. Setting up a NFZ and bombing a few places won't help if the rebels are disorganized and unable to take advantage of it, or even collapse into infighting.

That said, it would be nice if Obama pushed harder. Even if it was just a "Ghaddaffi should step down now" statement/ultimatum.

I am not advocating for boots on the ground. Or a no-fly zone. Or really anything in particular beyond *something* other than platitudes.

I'll leave the specifics about WHAT to do to others, but it seems like we are going to do nothing at all. Maybe stuff is going on behind the scenes, and if so - great. I will be happy to be wrong, but right now it seems like the US is basically terrified of doing anything at all.

I know we are going to get blasted no matter what we do, or don't do. So we might as well get blasted for doing the right thing, rather than do nothing in a vain attempt to not piss someone off.

[Berkut]

Yeah... how much you want to bet that if Gadhafi is overthrown, the rebels will immediately start fighting each other to determine who succeeds him?  This could be another Somalia in the making.

Shrug. So be it. Revolutions are messy things.

I don't like the idea that unless we can predict success, we should sit on our hands and do nothing.

[Caliga]

Obama doesn't want his Nobel Peace Prize to be revoked.

[DGuller]

Judging from my experience playing M2TW and EU3, Cyrenaica is a really horrible place to be fighting in.  It's just a barren wasteland with low support limits and long movement times.  I don't blame Obama for not wanting to get involved.

[Berkut]

Obama doesn't want his Nobel Peace Prize to be revoked.

[Caliga]

@DG You probably have more experience dealing with Libya than Obama does.

[Berkut]

Is that really a neocon position?  I thought neocons always acted in America's best self-interest, and I'm not sure if deposing Gadhafi is actually in our best interest, especially if we don't know what sort of government the opposition would replace Gadhafi's regime with.

I think neocons are more evangelistic than that. Remember they were originally liberals who wanted a more activist foreign policy.

[DGuller]

@DG You probably have more experience dealing with Libya than Obama does.

Unfortunately, I'm not eligible to be a president, so we'll have to make do with Obama.

[JonasSalk]

Is that really a neocon position?  I thought neocons always acted in America's best self-interest, and I'm not sure if deposing Gadhafi is actually in our best interest, especially if we don't know what sort of government the opposition would replace Gadhafi's regime with.

So it'll be like the Federalists and Anti-Federalists...only with AK-47s, RPGs, and Islam.

[KRonn]

Obama doesn't want his Nobel Peace Prize to be revoked.

But... will he have more chance of having it revoked if he intervenes, or stays out??