Libyan Civil War Megathread

[Mr.Penguin]

Yeah, the though of a bunch light armed and loosely organized rebels* beating and defeating Gaddafi's regime, seems to have been wet dream for many journalists, how disappointed they must be right now... 


* read: young and progressive.

I thought the rebels were tribal enemies of Ghadafi...hardly progressive...

The "young and progressive" part is how some media tried portrait the rebels and may have been so doing the first public protests in Tripoli, but now it looks like it's the usual tribal knuckleheads fighting...

[The Minsky Moment]

Hard not to be more progressive than Qadafi.

If 'progressive' means not evil then maybe.  If 'progressive' means more in touch with the modern world probably not.

Probably so, because even the most backwards, traditionalist tribalist is still in connection with some aspect of the world, even if is from decades or centuries ago.  Whereas Qadaffi is operating on another planet altogether.

[citizen k]

Hard not to be more progressive than Qadafi.

If 'progressive' means not evil then maybe.  If 'progressive' means more in touch with the modern world probably not.

Probably so, because even the most backwards, traditionalist tribalist is still in connection with some aspect of the world, even if is from decades or centuries ago.  Whereas Qadaffi is operating on another planet altogether.

A planet that's winning, duh.

[Valmy]

A planet that's winning, duh.

We'll see.

[The Minsky Moment]

A planet that's winning, duh.

it's not at all clear he has any serious prospects of ever taking back the east of the country . . .

[The Brain]

Hard not to be more progressive than Qadafi.

If 'progressive' means not evil then maybe.  If 'progressive' means more in touch with the modern world probably not.

Probably so, because even the most backwards, traditionalist tribalist is still in connection with some aspect of the world, even if is from decades or centuries ago.  Whereas Qadaffi is operating on another planet altogether.

A planet that's winning, duh.

Charlie Sheen jokes got old a while back.

[derspiess]

A planet that's winning, duh.

it's not at all clear he has any serious prospects of ever taking back the east of the country . . .

Yeah, I would think that if he had that capability he'd have done it by now.  Though I have to say I'm not exactly sure which side attrition would favor.

[The Minsky Moment]

I haven't seen a lot of hard information on the forces deployed.  It appears Qadaffi is relying heavily on a single, well-equipped brigade of about 4000 men.  Behind that are another 6000 or so in so-called "elite" formations that are not as well equipped or reliable as the Khamis brigade, and a bunch of other loyal paramilitary formations of various kinds.  The regular army is assumed by most commentators to be both unreliable and of questionable effectiveness, which is borne out by its past performance.

Attrition may be problematic for the regime, because as the equipment of their the key units degrades, the ability to replace it may be compromised by sanctions.  That would reduce their qualitative edge over the rebel groups.

OTOH, the impact of attrition on the rebels is unknown, as is just about everything else concerning their capabilities and potential other than their equipment (limited) and experience (presumed negligible).

[Maximus]

Time seems likely to improve both. Particularly if they can hold onto the oil terminals/oilfields.

[Josquius]

Shit. Feared Gadaffi would push back - such a big army doesn't just vanish over night- but never expected it all to go this fast...

[Admiral Yi]

Just heard on CNN that GCC troops have shown up in Bahrein.

[Razgovory]

Just heard on CNN that GCC troops have shown up in Bahrein.

Who is GCC?

[Admiral Yi]

Who is GCC?

Gulf Cooperation Council

[Ed Anger]

Don't fuck with the Qatar tank battalion.

[Jacob]

I've never gotten the impression that China would care about its citizens one way or the other.

That's changing. Whenever there's a disaster abroad, the Chinese internet starts buzzing comparing the response there to similar responses in China to disasters at home. Taking care of citizens abroad and not fucking up disaster relief is a big source of legitimacy for the regime, and conversely a risk if they fumble it.