Baseball

[stjaba]

Usually the Orioles tease with a good start in April before falling out of the race in May/June. This year, they sank like a rock during the first two weeks.  I feel bad for them- Minsky correctly notes that they have a good nucleus, but I don't see they making the playoffs any time soon- at least until Tampa Bay loses all their star players. Even then, they we need an off year from either Bosron and New Yrok. But New York and Boston will always be able to re-load, and will always be dangerous. Plus, now that the Boss is senile, the other teams in the East can't count on him making expensive mistakes anymore(Pavano, Giambi, etc). Cashman seems like a savvy GM, as are Theo Epstein(Boston) and Andrew Friedman(Tampa Bay), so competing in the AL East is a nightmare. Unlike the Central and the West, there's never going to be a year where a team can sneak away with a Division title- it's always going to be a dogfight.

As a Tampa Bay fan, I'm more concerned with the Yankees than with Boston right now. However, the Yankees are only getting older, and a few key injuries could hurt- but their lineup has a lot of depth. Boston emphasized run-prevention/defense in the off-season, but in the limited sample size of the first few weeks, it's backfired- Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron, both superb defenders acquired in the off-season, have committed a couple errors that lost games for the Red Sox.

IMO the run prevention approach can work(Mariners last year, Rays 2008), but it has its flaws, especially as applied to the Red Sox and Fenway Park. Fenway is relatively hitter friendly, as it has the Green Monster, and smaller foul territory compared to say Safeco, which is notoriously pitcher friendly. Also, Fenway has notoriously crappy grass in the infield, and experiences shitty weather during parts of the year, whereas Safeco and the Trop are both climate controlled. These factors help to neutralize the advantage of a good defender compared to league-average defender.

Finally, the run-prevention(compared to run-scoring orientated) approach can have an effect on pitchers, as Curt Schilling noted (http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/columns/story?id=5058230). If pitchers have a decently comfortable lead, they can take a little bit off their pitches, reducing risk of injury and allowing them to go longer in games. If the score is close, or 0-0 because your great fielders are crappy hitters, the pitchers feel more stress and won't have the luxury of taking anything off their pitches. While the effect within any one game may be minimal, the collective stress could definitely make a difference over the length of a full season.

[Ed Anger]

I miss Earl Weaver. 

[The Minsky Moment]

Felix Pie

You quoted his career numbers, which obscure the big improvement he made last year.  He is currently batting .400 and jsut turned 25.  Plenty of room for upside and not a bad option to have as a 4th/5th outfielder.

Adam Jones

Those are solid numbers - well above league average.  He has a significant jump in power last year.  He is still only is his age 24 year.

Nick Markakis

No need to comment further - he is also still quite young.

Nolan Reimold

He could have a very bright future if his minor league numbers translate well to the Bigs. He appears to have good power, a good eye, and some speed.

I'll take that as agreement.

All these guys still have significant additional potential based on their age and performance trajectories to date.
As they are right now, I would take them over any other outfield in the league; certainly there isn't any AL outfield that is clearly better; and there is none that has the collective upside.

[dps]

Felix Pie

You quoted his career numbers, which obscure the big improvement he made last year.  He is currently batting .400 and jsut turned 25.  Plenty of room for upside and not a bad option to have as a 4th/5th outfielder.

Adam Jones

Those are solid numbers - well above league average.  He has a significant jump in power last year.  He is still only is his age 24 year.

Nick Markakis

No need to comment further - he is also still quite young.

Nolan Reimold

He could have a very bright future if his minor league numbers translate well to the Bigs. He appears to have good power, a good eye, and some speed.

I'll take that as agreement.

All these guys still have significant additional potential based on their age and performance trajectories to date.
As they are right now, I would take them over any other outfield in the league; certainly there isn't any AL outfield that is clearly better; and there is none that has the collective upside.

Yeah, the Orioles are in a rebuilding mode, and need to be more concerned with future potential than current production.  On the other hand, as Jeff van Note once said, potential is a fancy word that means you aren't much good right now.

[The Minsky Moment]

But New York and Boston will always be able to re-load, and will always be dangerous. Plus, now that the Boss is senile, the other teams in the East can't count on him making expensive mistakes anymore(Pavano, Giambi, etc). Cashman seems like a savvy GM, as are Theo Epstein(Boston) and Andrew Friedman(Tampa Bay), so competing in the AL East is a nightmare. Unlike the Central and the West, there's never going to be a year where a team can sneak away with a Division title- it's always going to be a dogfight.

That's a key point - it doesn't make any sense in the AL East to try to build a team that can win 86-89 games and maybe steal a division or a playoff spot with some luck.  To compete in the AL east means being built for a 95+ win season, except given the unbalanced schedule and the strength of the division it really means building for 100+.  So while the Orioles could conveivably futz around the margins and upgrade pieces of their infield (e.g.) that would require either giving prospects of value or making financial commitments, all for the glory of competing for 3rd and 4th place.  What they are doing instead - keeping and developing their prospects inhouse and maintaining financial flexibility is the only rational approach, and a significant shift for what was traditionally one of the least efficient payrolls in the game.

The D-rays have shown the only viable path for challenging the divisional behemoths - if the O's can even approach their player devleopment success and add their higher level of financial resources they can be competing within a year or two.  If they cave to the strixes of the world an prematurely splurge for a John Lackey type before the rest of the core is ready, their reward at best would be expensive 3rd place finish followed by regress (ie the model they followed for the rest of the Angelos era)

[Admiral Yi]

I like your analysis of front office strategy Joan, but what about gunning for a wild card?

[Valmy]

Usually the Orioles tease with a good start in April before falling out of the race in May/June. This year, they sank like a rock during the first two weeks.

They did that ONE year in 2005.

They sank like a rock last year also.  They just generally suck.

And talking about waiting for the Yankees and Red Sox to have a rough spot is just silly, them coming back to the pack does Baltimore no good when they suck.

[The Minsky Moment]

I like your analysis of front office strategy Joan, but what about gunning for a wild card?

Same problem, tough to be a WC winner in the AL without hitting the 95+ win range.  Last few AL wild card teams have had: 95, 95, 94, 95, 95, 98, 95, 99, 102. 

Hitting 95 wins in the AL east is a challenge.

[stjaba]

Usually the Orioles tease with a good start in April before falling out of the race in May/June. This year, they sank like a rock during the first two weeks.

They did that ONE year in 2005.

They sank like a rock last year also.  They just generally suck.

And talking about waiting for the Yankees and Red Sox to have a rough spot is just silly, them coming back to the pack does Baltimore no good when they suck.

Last year, they did start 6-2 .

In 2008, they were in 2nd place at the end of April.

In 2007, they were at playing .500 baseball and in 2nd place as of May 31.

In 2006, they were playing .500 baseball until May

In 2005, like you say, they were in first place in for like 60 games.

[sbr]

Felix Pie

You quoted his career numbers, which obscure the big improvement he made last year.  He is currently batting .400 and jsut turned 25.  Plenty of room for upside and not a bad option to have as a 4th/5th outfielder.

Adam Jones

Those are solid numbers - well above league average.  He has a significant jump in power last year.  He is still only is his age 24 year.

Nick Markakis

No need to comment further - he is also still quite young.

Nolan Reimold

He could have a very bright future if his minor league numbers translate well to the Bigs. He appears to have good power, a good eye, and some speed.

I'll take that as agreement.

All these guys still have significant additional potential based on their age and performance trajectories to date.
As they are right now, I would take them over any other outfield in the league; certainly there isn't any AL outfield that is clearly better; and there is none that has the collective upside.

I am biased because they are my team but I would also take the St. Louis OF over the Baltimore's.

Matt Holiday today is a better player than any OF on the Oriole's roster, maybe any player on their roster.

Colby Rasmus was a higher prospect than any of the B'more players though je hasn't quite put it all together yet.

Ryan Ludwick's 2008 season of .299/37/113 with an OPS of .966 is a better single season than any of the Oriole players have put together.

[The Minsky Moment]

I am biased because they are my team but I would also take the St. Louis OF over the Baltimore's..

yet another outfield in the wrong league . . .

Ludwig had the one great year but no other year in his career was remotely like that.  He was well down last year and on the wrong side of 30. 

Rasmus' 2009 was about as good as Jones' 2008.  He is off to a good start but it is still pretty early on.  I agree he is a nice guy to have.

As for Holliday, his career numbers on the road are .287/.355/.464.    For Markakis it is .290/.371/.453.   

[Syt]

ESPN: Rockies president McGregor dies at 48

Colorado Rockies president Keli McGregor was found dead in a hotel room in Salt Lake City on Tuesday morning, according to police.

Salt Lake City Police Det. Rick Wall said McGregor, 48, died of natural causes. He said the official cause of death will be investigated by the Salt Lake City medical examiner's office, according to The Denver Post.

The Rockies were notified of McGregor's death by police and were planning a statement, but had no immediate comment, according to the report.

McGregor, the team's president since 2001, had been with the Rockies front office since 1993, when he started as senior director of operations. He was promoted to senior vice president in 1996 and executive vice president in 1998.

Wall said police were called to McGregor's hotel when a pair of team associates, traveling with him on team business, could not reach McGregor in his room and asked the hotel to check on him, according to the report.

Police were called about 11 a.m. ET and emergency workers arrived on the scene and were unable to revive him.

McGregor, a tight end at Colorado State, was drafted by the Denver Broncos in 1985 and played for the Broncos, Indianapolis Colts and Seattle Seahawks, according to the report.

[Syt]

What a meltdown by the Pirates - horrific, even by their standards.

[Syt]

20-0 for the Brewers after the top of the 9th. If the Pirates fail to score in the 9th it'll be the highest shutout against them ever (previous was in 1910: 18-0).

25 hits for Milwaukee (highest against Pirates is 28, last time 1930).

[Syt]