Republican Candidates for the 2012 Nomination

[stjaba]

It's only 2010, but it's probable those interested in seeking the 2012 Republican nomination are already laying the initial groundwork for a campaign. According to wiki, no one has officially declared, but there's a pretty long list of speculated candidates:
Haley Barbour
Scott Brown
Jeb Bush
Eric Cantor
Dick Cheney 
Mitch Daniels
Luis Fortuño 
Newt Gingrich
Rudy Giuliani
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
Gary Johnson
Sarah Palin 
George Pataki
Ron Paul
Tim Pawlenty
Mike Pence
Rick Perry
Mitt Romney 
Mark Sanford
Rick Santorum
Fred Thompson
John Thune

I highly doubt Cheney or Sanford run. I have a feeling Guiliani and Thompson aren't going to run, given their lackluster campaigns from 2008. I have strong doubts about Jeb Bush running. Of the rest, most are not that impressive, relative unknowns, retreads, or unlikely to run.  According to Intrade, a futures betting website, the top 5 candidates are Palin, Romney, Thune, Pawlenty, and Huckabee. Palin(24), Romney(21), and Thune(11) are the only candidates trading over 10(on a scale from 1-100), but of course it is very early on right now.

If I had money to bet, I would short Palin: I cannot possibly imagine her winning the nomination. Romney definitely has the best shot, at least from the vantage point of early 2010 IMO. I don't know enough about Thune or Pawlenty. Huckabee seems to have limited appeal. I can't say I'm especially excited about any of the likely candidates, but I don't know much about Thune or Pawlenty, who both pretty solid.

Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com just posted an interesting article on possible paths to nomination by Palin and some of the other candidate. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/first-look-at-palins-primary-math.html.
FYI: The GOP has modified its primary schedule. The traditional early states(Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina) will continue to go early. The orange states will go next, and the remaining order is undetermined.


Anyways, here's  a quote from the Nate Silver article:

"Palin Plan A. Win Iowa. Win South Carolina. Clean up in orange states. You probably have enough momentum to survive the consolidation of the GOP field which is liable to occur at this point.

Palin Plan B. Lose Iowa narrowly, especially to a Midwestern candidate. Hope that a Southerner isn't running strongly and win South Carolina. Clean up in orange states. Then you anchor in the South, winning Texas (green group), Florida/Georgia (gold group) or Indiana/North Carolina (purple group). At some point, you need to break through and win a big Midwestern battleground like Ohio or Wisconsin.

Palin Plan C. Win Iowa. Lose South Carolina narrowly to a Southern candidate. Regain momentum in orange states. Hope that green states vote next and aim in particular for a big win in Texas. If it's the gold states instead, go all-in in Ohio and Pennsylvania. If it's the purple states, you'll need some help.

Conversely, Mitt Romney's paths might look something like this, and are probably somewhat more straightforward than Palin's.

Romney Plan A. Win Iowa. Win New Hampshire. Game over.

Romney Plan B-1. (If Palin is knocked out) Lose Iowa. Win New Hampshire. Win Nevada. Sweep orange states on the basis of organizational strength. Veer slightly to the left, emphasizing electability and cleaning up in delegate-rich states like California and New York. You probably outlast a Southern opponent like Huckabee, perhaps even fairly easily. A Midwesterner that could win states like Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania might be more challenging.

Romney Plan B-2. (If Palin survives) Lose Iowa. Win New Hampshire. Win Nevada. Split orange states with Palin on the basis of organizational strength. Hope that gold or purple states came up next, in which case you should build up a substantial delegate lead. If so, the party infrastructure may start to close ranks around you. If green states come up instead, Palin is tougher and you're in for a war of attrition with flagging momentum.

Mike Huckabee, if he runs, really only has one path to victory and it isn't a very good one since the calendar makes it tough for a Southern candidate to gain momentum:

Huckabee Plan A. Win Iowa. Win South Carolina. Knock out Palin and perhaps angle for her endorsement. Lower expectations for orange states and hope to at least win a couple contests like West Virginia and Nebraska. Hope that there are at least two centrist candidates remaining in the race while you consolidate the conservative vote. If it's just you and Romney (etc.) one-on-one, you probably need to consistently win border states like Ohio/Florida (gold group), North Carolina/Indiana (purple group) or Missouri/Texas (green group).

Most of the other Southern candidates would have the same problem. Conversely, someone like a John Thune probably has a more versatile set of strategies. If Romney is knocked out (Thune is more likely to pull an upset in New Hampshire than someone like Palin or Huckabee), he can run on electability and is probably conservative enough so as not to feel like a compromise to the base. If Palin and/or Huckabee are knocked out instead, Thune should have some regional strength in the orange states and then would be headed to a key showdown or two with Romney in Midwestern states like Ohio.

It's also conceivable that a strong Northeastern candidate, like Scott Brown, could run. His path would obviously need to involve winning New Hampshire and sweeping Maine/Delaware/Vermont/Rhode Island when the orange states vote. Then the contest probably becomes about the brute force of the delegate math, with big states like California, New York, Pennsylvania and Illinois being key."

[sbr]

Already?

 

[stjaba]

You can't be too early. The first time I heard about Obama was in Languish in 2004. CdM kept totting himl 

[jimmy olsen]

Petraeus pro imperator!

[Agelastus]

Can't we at least wait until next year before having to try and cope with the arcana of the American system of Primaries?

[Rasputin]

Bobby Jindal

our next president

i just want to be on record early

[Eddie Teach]

Didn't he participate in an exorcism? That seems a little too outre for mainstream America.

[Josquius]

Palin! Palin!
Comedy gold in 2012!

[Martinus]

Palin! Palin!
Comedy gold in 2012!

I love how they precede any mention of Palin on BBC 4's Friday Night Comedy Show with a jingle from Handel's "Halleluyah". That idiot is god-given to comedians everywhere.

[The Brain]

Conan should march on Washington and take the throne.

[Syt]

Conan should march on Washington and take the throne.

[The Brain]

Is that photoshopped?

[Syt]

No.

[dps]

There's only a few people on that list that I would support, though there are some that I don't know enough about to say for sure that I couldn't support them.  And generally, the ones I'd support are the ones least likely to run.

[Agelastus]

The USA = Aquilonia? Well, possibly...

But he certainly could be a better president than the one you've got now.

Conan: "I wish to reform healthcare in America."
Legislator: "Well, I'll support it if you give me blah, blah, blah, blah for my State."
Conan, after drawing very large sword: "I think there may be a misunderstanding here."
Legislator: "No sir! The reform will be done sir" I was only joking sir!"