Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono

[DGuller]

Ooh, there is. 

[DGuller]

https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/browse.action

They let you browse loans available for investment without signing up.  Not enough info to build actuarial tables off of.

This looks enough:  https://www.lendingclub.com/info/download-data.action

[Admiral Yi]

I'm not going to wade through a giant CSV file just to talk actuarial shop, but surely those files are just going to include the same info as the browse screen, no?

[DGuller]

I'm not going to wade through a giant CSV file just to talk actuarial shop, but surely those files are just going to include the same info as the browse screen, no?

Well, the CSV files have 50+ variables.  Obviously these variables are of no use if you can't also see those same 50 variables on the loan offer, but I think a lot of those variable are credit-based stuff that's not open to everyone to see.

[Ed Anger]

My panties fall off when DG talks shop.

[Monoriu]

There isn't much I can do about it if the guys don't want to pay me back, right?  I don't hold any collatoral, and even if I do, I don't know what to do with it in case of a default.  The risk is far too high for the returns.  If there is a change in the macro economic environment, be it a Federal Reserve rate hike, a financial crisis, Greece doing funny stuff for the 924th time, or what not, I won't see my money back. 

[Admiral Yi]

What are your fly-by-night real estate development bonds collateralized with?

[DGuller]

I looked into it some more, and it seems like a lot of really bright minds have already tackled that problem, and there are even sites out there lending out their algorithms for a fee (of course).  Even if I'm a good enough predictive modeler, I'm not a good enough programmer to beat the bots timing-wise that already exist out there.  Maybe there is still enough dumb money left for the taking after the bots snap up the good stuff, but I doubt it, and it's becoming far too serious of a problem to be fun.  I'll stick to Kaggle.

You can put your panties back on, Ed. 

[Monoriu]

What are your fly-by-night real estate development bonds collateralized with?

The prestige and face of one of the richest men in Hong Kong.  His business empire will be seen as untrustworthy, his official titles will be taken away, and he won't be able with walk among the elites with his head up if he defaults on my bonds. 

[Admiral Yi]

I looked into it some more, and it seems like a lot of really bright minds have already tackled that problem, and there are even sites out there lending out their algorithms for a fee (of course).  Even if I'm a good enough predictive modeler, I'm not a good enough programmer to beat the bots timing-wise that already exist out there.  Maybe there is still enough dumb money left for the taking after the bots snap up the good stuff, but I doubt it, and it's becoming far too serious of a problem to be fun.  I'll stick to Kaggle.

You can put your panties back on, Ed. 

Your model for analyzing the dumbness of the noninstitutional money is not overly rigorous.

[MadImmortalMan]

I prefer a good collateral to loan value over some gangster cred any day.

[DGuller]

Your model for analyzing the dumbness of the noninstitutional money is not overly rigorous.

You don't always need a model, sometimes good judgment reigns supreme over bunches of numbers.  My judgment tells me that automated algorithmic trading is a winner-takes-all marketplace, and being good enough isn't good enough.  My judgment also tells me that there is indeed a sizable potential to find significantly above-average deals, since prices are determined by one actor rather than the marketplace, and the nature of loans is very heterogeneous.

However, that's actually a bad thing for you if you're not an algorithmic bot.  If there is a potential to beat the average, there is also a corresponding potential to under-perform the average.  In the marketplace with algorithmic bots, guess who gets the second bag.

[Monoriu]

I prefer a good collateral to loan value over some gangster cred any day.

Well, for a small retail bond investor like me, the collateral isn't really something that I care about.  I am sure it is written in that 500 page book somewhere, but it doesn't mean much to a layman.  I can only process the size of the bond, the investment period, the yield to maturity, and a gut feeling of whether this firm will default or not. 

[Monoriu]

I am torn between two different ways to calculate if I have enough money to retire. 

Method 1: I need to spend x dollars per year after retirement.  The retirement fund needs to be x times 25. 

Method 2: The retirement fund needs to generate x dollars per year. 

[Tamas]

https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/browse.action

They let you browse loans available for investment without signing up.  Not enough info to build actuarial tables off of.

Is my two-seconds look correct that a lot of that stuff is people seeking mirco loans to pay off credit card debt? So basically, I would be like the shady guy his cousin know, except I couldn't send a gorilla with a baseball bat to collect if he defaults?