Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono

[MadImmortalMan]

What's MiM's sage take on Linkedin's coming earnings report?

I want nothing to do with it. That doesn't mean it isn't going to go to 120 before people figure out the valuation is nuts though. Current P/E on LNKD at 89 bucks is 653.74. How good are forward earnings? lol

[Alcibiades]

Haven't put it on while im still home, but it's still dropping quickly.   

Maybe 18.10?


And I have a large amount of money sitting around collecting about 3 cents a month interest....Wanting to do *something* with it.  Feel free to give me ideas.

It's a post-earnings dump. Don't worry about it. They beat estimates anyway. This happens a lot to blue chips.

Yeah I missed the dip, went down to 18.20, back around 18.90 again.   

[stjaba]

There's certainly room for improvement for TVs.  My tv remote for my samsung has enough buttons to fill a keyboard.  Then the add the remote for my cable-box, and my blue-ray player.  Then try to get them to all communicate with each other.  Then of course throw in my Apple TV (the remote is certainly different with its two buttons and a wheel), but it is still a hassle to switch between them all.

If Apple could invent a tv that scrapped all of those remotes, worked everything seemlessly through one simple interface, I think that would be worth a lot.

Those are problems because the various manufacturers have traditionally refused to specify common interfaces for their various components.

How is Apple, a company notorious for refusing to participate in any common interface specifications, going to solve that problem?

Will an Apple TV talk to a Sony receiver and a Magnavox blue ray player and an XBOX better than Vizio does somehow?

Another problem is that there is no profit in TVs. A few weeks ago, I read an article in the Economist that said TV manufacturers are making almost no money  in TVs because prices have come down so low. That's why right now they're trying to push 3d TVs, TVs with internet apps, etc. because they can sell those TVs at a premium.  But apparently, the next generation in TVs are doing so well.

I think another, related problem is that people are more price sensitive for high end TVs than for iphones and similar products. Apple's products are almost always more expensive than competitors. While customers may be willing to spring an extra $200 for an Apple cell phone, I bet they may be less willing to purchase an Apple premium TV for an extra $1000(or whatever).

That being said, an Apple TV that could interface with really well with Ipads/Iphones would be really cool. Also, I'm sure if Apple was going to come out with a TV, they would also come out with related accessories(or license it out to third parties). I'm sure the BarristerBoys of the world would happily buy Apple TVs, Apple blu ray players, Apple speakers, Apple HDMI cables, etc. 

[MadImmortalMan]

I think they are going to try providing content and push Netflix and Amazon out of the way. iFlix. Preloaded on your iTV. iTunes too.

[MadImmortalMan]

Check this out.

(Reuters) - The annual average growth of China's minimum wages should be at least 13 percent in the five years to 2015, according to a government job market plan for the period published on Wednesday.

13 percent per year for 5 years. Short Wal-Mart?

I'm guessing US consumers will be bearing this cost.

[MadImmortalMan]

Also, my trading platform has triggered alerts on the volume of MSFT Feb calls today, and there are surely a lot of them being traded. Mostly ITM.

         MSFT

   Calls Calculator    

   Op Int    

   28.0 Call       2.62       2.65       2.61       0.13       252,196       60,759    
   29.0 Call       1.63       1.64       1.63       0.14       92,264       41,524    
   30.0 Call       0.62       0.64       0.62       0.08       4,824       68,136    
   31.0 Call       0.06       0.07       0.07       0.00       4,315       32,379    
   32.0 Call       0.01       0.02       0.02       0.00       120       2,352    
   33.0 Call       --       0.01       0.02       0.00       0       116

These expire in five days. I have no idea what it means. Either someone knows something, or is hedging a massive short position.

[Admiral Yi]

13 percent per year for 5 years. Short Wal-Mart?

Bad idea IMO.  Wages make up a tiny fraction of US retail goods.  Plus, they're establishing themselves in the China market as a trusted brand for food that won't kill you.

[MadImmortalMan]

Pitney got downgraded by Fitch. The one caveat Kass (or was it SA?) mentioned on them is the debt. Looks like they've got a 17% short interest, and now yielding an incredible 8.11%. I took a look at that balance sheet, and I have to say the debt is pretty big. They are a little under 95% leveraged.

I haven't seen any upcoming problems on the financing schedule, and they appear to have been carrying a large amount of debt for years. Their cash flow is acceptable even though I wouldn't expect much growth. The conference call gave guidance of plus or minus 2% for 2012. They even raised the dividend in the face of that. So caveat emptor I suppose. It's so cheap for that dividend I might buy some and just hedge it against catastrophe.

[Alcibiades]

Hmm... Guess I'll think about picking it up if it hits to around 18?

[MadImmortalMan]

Up to you. Like I said, I don't follow their business sector much. But if they do end up having to, say cut the dividend by 25%, you're still gonna be getting a 6% annual out of it. It's a long-term holder, not a trade.


Edit: I forgot to mention, it's rated "hold" by analysts almost across the board. It's an uber-vanilla thing.

[Ed Anger]

Dammit, Moody's downgrades. I'm reviewing my triggers in case the SHIT HITS THE FAN.

[MadImmortalMan]

At least seven new funds from two different major ETF sponsors are scheduled to make their debuts tomorrow and six of those funds will be country-specific offerings.
Van Eck , the fifth-largest U.S. ETF issuer by assets, will roll out the Market Vectors Unconventional Oil & Gas ETF (NYSE: FRAK). That ETF will track the Market Vectors Unconventional Oil & Gas Index, which was home to 43 securities of companies with a market capitalization range of between approximately $1.4 billion to $80.6 billion and an average market capitalization of $10.4 billion as of January 31 , according to a statement.
FRAK is designed to give investors exposure to companies involved in the production of coalbed methane, coal seam gas, shale oil, shale gas and firms operating in oil sands properties. The new ETF will have an expense ratio of 0.54%.
As Benzinga previously reported First Trust , the eleventh-largest U.S. ETF issuer, has plans to roll out seven new country-specific funds and it looks like six members of that group will debut on Wednesday.
Those new ETFs are the First Trust Australia AlphaDEX Fund (NYSE: FAUS), the the First Trust United Kingdom AlphaDEX Fund (NYSE: FKU), the First Trust Taiwan AlphaDEX Fund (NYSE: FTW), the First Trust Hong Kong AlphaDEX Fund (NYSE: FHK), the the First Trust Switzerland AlphaDEX Fund (NYSE: FSZ) and the the First Trust Germany AlphaDEX Fund (NYSE: FGM).
All of the new First Trust offerings will have expense ratios 0.8% and all will compete with previously existing funds issued by BlackRock's (NYSE: BLK) iShares unit, the world's largest ETF sponsor.

Taiwan FTW!

[MadImmortalMan]

Apple would be $18,000 if it traded like Netflix
February 14, 2012, 9:18 AM

Bespoke Investment Group takes Apple's $500 price as an opportunity to consider how the tech giant is priced compared with other technology and retailing companies.

At $502.50, Apple is trading at 11.8 times expected earnings for the year.

By contrast, the S&P 500 is trading at 13.5 times forward earnings, on a weighted basis.

Bespoke also compares Apple's P/E with a selection of traditional tech stocks such as Intel, Cisco, and Yahoo. In those cases, the valuation of Apple ranges from $459 to $803, depending on which P/E you choose to apply.

Bespoke also compares Apple's P/E with Amazon's  (77.8) which would yield a price for Apple of $3,346.50 a share; and Netflix  (422.5) which would put Apple's price at $17,947.80.

11.8 is very cheap for a tech company. Although it could be argued that Apple is now a retail company.

[alfred russel]

11.8 is very cheap for a tech company. Although it could be argued that Apple is now a retail company.

Are they even retail? I assume a huge chunk of their earnings are the iPhone, which is  likely to face stiff future competition. They are a company with a great product that is going to be obsolete soon, and will be reliant on a great R&D department to sustain their current earnings.

[PJL]

I'd say Apple are more a consumer electronics company these days than a tech one.