Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono

Started by MadImmortalMan, December 21, 2009, 04:32:41 AM

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alfred russel

#810
November 17, 2011, 06:39:53 PM
I'm thinking about shorting treasury bonds. The 30 year just went under 3% yield. Does anyone have ideas on the best way to do this?

I'm thinking about shorting the long term bond fund at Vanguard (EDV). There are some short bond funds out there, but EDV is transparent regarding what is in it, so I can see what I'm getting into.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

Admiral Yi

#811
November 17, 2011, 08:24:48 PM
No.  Never heard of bond options or futures, and short-selling is not an option for retail traders/investors I don't think.

alfred russel

#812
November 17, 2011, 08:53:58 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 17, 2011, 08:24:48 PM
No.  Never heard of bond options or futures, and short-selling is not an option for retail traders/investors I don't think.

There are a variety of derivatives out there to hedge or speculate on interest rate changes, but I don't know to what extent these are available to retail investors (I've never touched them).

I've shorted stock before--average joe can do that.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

Admiral Yi

#813
November 17, 2011, 08:55:54 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 17, 2011, 08:53:58 PM
I've shorted stock before--average joe can do that.

Are you talking about buying puts, or are you talking about paying to borrow stock and then dumping it?

alfred russel

#814
November 17, 2011, 09:15:20 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 17, 2011, 08:55:54 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 17, 2011, 08:53:58 PM
I've shorted stock before--average joe can do that.

Are you talking about buying puts, or are you talking about paying to borrow stock and then dumping it?

The latter.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

alfred russel

#816
November 17, 2011, 09:33:16 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 17, 2011, 09:22:13 PM
Really?  I had no idea.

It isn't a great thing, imo, because if your position goes negative you get hit with nasty margin interest rates (unless you have a lot cash the rates are high). Also if what you are shorting pays dividends (or interest payments in the case of a bond), you are stuck paying those.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

alfred russel

#817
November 18, 2011, 09:35:24 AM
I'm going to bump this, because even though I only posted this last night, by this morning it is already off the front page.  :wacko:

Apparently Languish isn't dying in Europe.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

MadImmortalMan

#818
November 18, 2011, 02:57:57 PM
Short TLT.

"Stability is destabilizing." --Hyman Minsky

"Complacency can be a self-denying prophecy."
"We have nothing to fear but lack of fear itself." --Larry Summers

alfred russel

#819
November 18, 2011, 03:31:07 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on November 18, 2011, 02:57:57 PM
Short TLT.

Any reason for TLT over EDV? (they seem about the same, except EDV has slightly longer duration, which would give me more interest rate exposure)
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

MadImmortalMan

#820
November 18, 2011, 03:40:38 PM
Not really. I watch TLT because it seems to be a better indicator for the market and trades inverse to stocks fairly closely. So it's my favorite bond etf. It moves more.
"Stability is destabilizing." --Hyman Minsky

"Complacency can be a self-denying prophecy."
"We have nothing to fear but lack of fear itself." --Larry Summers

alfred russel

#821
November 18, 2011, 04:06:41 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on November 18, 2011, 03:40:38 PM
Not really. I watch TLT because it seems to be a better indicator for the market and trades inverse to stocks fairly closely. So it's my favorite bond etf. It moves more.

Thanks MIM. Do you know of any derivatives that might give exposure to treasury rates and are available to retail investors?
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

MadImmortalMan

#822
November 21, 2011, 01:28:48 PM
There is a new etf coming soon from Barclay's.

http://etfdailynews.com/2011/11/21/ishares-funds-files-for-ishares-barclays-u-s-treasury-bond-fund-etf/

Quote
The iShares Barclays U.S. Treasury Bond Fund (the "Fund") seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Barclays Capital U.S. Treasury Bond Index.



No symbol yet.

It seems there is a lot of movement in the market anticipating higher rates now.
"Stability is destabilizing." --Hyman Minsky

"Complacency can be a self-denying prophecy."
"We have nothing to fear but lack of fear itself." --Larry Summers

MadImmortalMan

#823
November 22, 2011, 01:53:36 PM
Groupon. :nelson:
"Stability is destabilizing." --Hyman Minsky

"Complacency can be a self-denying prophecy."
"We have nothing to fear but lack of fear itself." --Larry Summers

MadImmortalMan

#824
November 23, 2011, 05:26:22 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on November 09, 2011, 02:38:57 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on October 25, 2011, 06:03:02 PM
Next victim:

CMG...no

PCLN...no


It's LNKD! LinkedIn with a P/E ratio as of today's close of 1317.88x.

They report on 11/3 after the close, so you still have seven trading days to short the fuck out of them.

This post is worth $12/share so far.

Oct 25th open: $91.43

Today's close: $66


Difference: $25.43



"Stability is destabilizing." --Hyman Minsky

"Complacency can be a self-denying prophecy."
"We have nothing to fear but lack of fear itself." --Larry Summers
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