Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono

[MadImmortalMan]

I'm glad I haven't actually invested my IRA money into anything yet. 

Today looks like a hell of an opportunity to do it then. 

[Admiral Yi]

Based on MiM's Crameresque ranting I expected a bloodbath but when I logged on I saw the S&P500 was down less than 2%.   That's not that bad.

Going to keep my IRA contribution in cash until it goes truly tits up in June.

[MadImmortalMan]

Yeah, I'm just cranky because I have a big Caterpillar position.

[citizen k]

Yeah, I'm just cranky because I have a big Caterpillar position.

Infrastructure plays still seem worthwhile in the long term, no?

[Admiral Yi]

Yeah, I'm just cranky because I have a big Caterpillar position.

Never could figure out why you bought Caterpillar after the Jap nuke boo boo.  Did you expect them to cover the plants with dirt?

[MadImmortalMan]

Yeah, I'm just cranky because I have a big Caterpillar position.

Never could figure out why you bought Caterpillar after the Jap nuke boo boo.  Did you expect them to cover the plants with dirt?

I was just using the dip in the market to pick up more. I still plan to stay long. I wasn't trying to time it specifically on the nuke thing. Or the tsunami.

[MadImmortalMan]

Yeah, I'm just cranky because I have a big Caterpillar position.

Never could figure out why you bought Caterpillar after the Jap nuke boo boo.  Did you expect them to cover the plants with dirt?

I was just using the dip in the market to pick up more. I still plan to stay long. I wasn't trying to time it specifically on the nuke thing. Or the tsunami.

I think I'm gong to try something I've never done before, now that I've got several positions of a decent size (like that one). Selling covered calls on my existing positions. Anybody ever tried it?

[Caliga]

Nope, never have really gotten into that sort of thing.  I buy stocks, collect dividends (sometimes), and sell them.  That's it.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Irrational exuberance today 

[MadImmortalMan]

Well, this has wiped out all losses from Monday and then some.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I'm pleased because there are some shares I want to sell on tuesday just before they go ex-dividend; so for once I'm very interested in the short-term fluctuations.

[MadImmortalMan]

Toni--I think you should get out of the PSLV before QE2 ends if you haven't already. IMO, silver doesn't have the demand support that oil has. You can always buy it back if QE2 ending doesn't knock the wind out of the commodities market (or better yet, if it does-then you buy it back lower). If I'm wrong, you lose nothing.

[MadImmortalMan]

IMO there will be a crash at some point this year, probably before end of Q2.

I still have a couple oil stocks I've been holding long-term. SLB, CVX and (sort of) KMP in particular. The two prevailing opinions are:


1-Oil is up due to demand and that is structural. As long as the economy doesn't tank, oil won't either. It will keep crawling up.

2-The increase in fuel costs will put the brakes on the economy, causing oil to go back down.

You seem to think #2 is right. It makes a ton of sense, but I'm still undecided. Here's my thinking. #2 happened to the US in 2007-2008. We all had cars already, but we started buying smaller more fuel-efficient ones. Our power plants shifted to cheaper NatGas. Now, we're all driving smaller cars and the plants are all converted. Oil going back up again. We already made our adjustments.

Then there's this:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704858404576133461380779324.html

Asia. China and India seem to have strong car sales even with these fuel costs. But these aren't sales of people buying more fuel-efficient cars as much as they are sales of people who never owned cars before buying some shitty Tata or something. In other words, fuel consumption going from zero to nonzero. So I'm not so sure the oil prices we're seeing now aren't structural, and catching up to the real demand. So maybe I'll wait for news of a drop in auto sales in China/India before expecting that drop everyone is expecting.

Here's a follow-up:

China's Sinopec cuts off oil exports

by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) April 20, 2011

Chinese oil giant Sinopec has stopped exporting oil products to maintain domestic supplies amid disruption concerns caused by Middle East unrest and Japan's earthquake, a report said Wednesday.

The state-run Xinhua news agency did not say how long the suspension would last but it reported that the firm had said it also would take steps to step up output "to maintain domestic market supplies of refined oil products".

Sinopec would ensure supplies met the "basic needs" of the southern Chinese special regions of Hong Kong and Macao, but they also should expect an unspecified drop in supply, Xinhua quoted an unnamed company official as saying.

AFP was not immediately able to reach a Sinopec spokesman by phone for comment.

The report said Sinopec has raised output of refined oil products this year, with its first-quarter production reaching 31.55 million tonnes, an increase of 6.2 percent from the same period last year.

Sinopec last month said its 2010 net profit rose nearly 14 percent on higher oil prices and strong domestic demand for refined oil and chemical products.

It reported a net profit of 71.8 billion yuan ($11 billion).

The Beijing-based company attributed the result to China's rapid economic growth, robust oil demand and "the increase in the price of crude oil, oil products and petrochemical products."

It had said at the time that it would continue to "expand markets" in China and overseas this year, while intensifying its exploration efforts in the country's western regions.

Oil prices have surged on supply concerns as governments in the oil-rich Middle East and North Africa are hit by popular uprisings, while the Japan quake and resulting nuclear crisis led the country to seek other forms of energy other than atomic.

[Tonitrus]

Toni--I think you should get out of the PSLV before QE2 ends if you haven't already. IMO, silver doesn't have the demand support that oil has. You can always buy it back if QE2 ending doesn't knock the wind out of the commodities market (or better yet, if it does-then you buy it back lower). If I'm wrong, you lose nothing.

Trying to be my broker now? 

Hah, I was thinking of bringing that up in this thread...I still have it (just 100 shares), and have been getting a bit of an inclination to sell now that I'm at/past the "doubled my money" point.

[Caliga]

For some dumb reason Princesca is bugging the crap out of me to put $1,000 into a "safe" money market fund.  Do any of you guys hold one and, if so, which?

My cash sweep goes into an Ameritrade money market, but the yield on it is only 0.03%.