Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono

[Ed Anger]

Ed:    Cramer thinks we're all gonna die if health care passes.

I love Cramer. Only in small doses, and I never buy or sell because he says so. He's alright pointing out stocks to look at though.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

P/E of 109, no dividends (not unusual for a tech company) and it's at its 52-wk high. However, everything you said about it is absolutely right. It has been up as high as $70 before, just not in the last year. I think the high P/E is due to the fact that their earnings dropped through the floor in the downturn. Hardly surprising with the crunch. Even the analysts who recommend sell are projecting the earnings to go back up. One thing I think is a mistake that analysts make about VMWare is that they look at it with too narrow a focus. They call it a software company. But it's a bit more than that.

IMO, the main vulnerability is exposure to M$FT's Hyper-V (which I have no personal experience with--all my stuff is running on VMWare ESX). If Hyper-V sucks, no problem. If Hyper-V is more expensive to license (likely), then VMW remains the gold standard. If M$FT does something to their server platform that introduces incompatibilities with ESX and other VMW platforms, that will be bad, but it can't happen for a few years at least. 2k8R2 and W7 work great on VMWare. I've also noticed the changes to the licensing structure for ESX 4 from 3.5 are likely to raise the revenue VMW can expect to bring in, not just from new datacenters and metal-to-virtual conversions, but also existing customers upgrading existing platforms.

So, basically I agree with you.

You're discounting the threat of Xen, KVM, and VirtualBox.  The latter especially, as Oracle could do some interesting things with that.

[citizen k]

Ed:    Cramer thinks we're all gonna die if health care passes.

No, he just said you might want some dividend stocks to offset the hit the market will take when healthcare passes.

[MadImmortalMan]

P/E of 109, no dividends (not unusual for a tech company) and it's at its 52-wk high. However, everything you said about it is absolutely right. It has been up as high as $70 before, just not in the last year. I think the high P/E is due to the fact that their earnings dropped through the floor in the downturn. Hardly surprising with the crunch. Even the analysts who recommend sell are projecting the earnings to go back up. One thing I think is a mistake that analysts make about VMWare is that they look at it with too narrow a focus. They call it a software company. But it's a bit more than that.

IMO, the main vulnerability is exposure to M$FT's Hyper-V (which I have no personal experience with--all my stuff is running on VMWare ESX). If Hyper-V sucks, no problem. If Hyper-V is more expensive to license (likely), then VMW remains the gold standard. If M$FT does something to their server platform that introduces incompatibilities with ESX and other VMW platforms, that will be bad, but it can't happen for a few years at least. 2k8R2 and W7 work great on VMWare. I've also noticed the changes to the licensing structure for ESX 4 from 3.5 are likely to raise the revenue VMW can expect to bring in, not just from new datacenters and metal-to-virtual conversions, but also existing customers upgrading existing platforms.

So, basically I agree with you.

You're discounting the threat of Xen, KVM, and VirtualBox.  The latter especially, as Oracle could do some interesting things with that.

Hmm, yeah. I love VirtualBox on my desktop. I haven't used it on the enterprise level myself, but I understand it beats ESX in it's management interfaces/hypervisor (which does seem to be a VMWare weakness to me).

[Admiral Yi]

No, he just said you might want some dividend stocks to offset the hit the market will take when healthcare passes.

Like AT&T at 6 & 3/4.

[citizen k]

No, he just said you might want some dividend stocks to offset the hit the market will take when healthcare passes.

Like AT&T at 6 & 3/4.

[Tamas]

P/E of 109, no dividends (not unusual for a tech company) and it's at its 52-wk high. However, everything you said about it is absolutely right. It has been up as high as $70 before, just not in the last year. I think the high P/E is due to the fact that their earnings dropped through the floor in the downturn. Hardly surprising with the crunch. Even the analysts who recommend sell are projecting the earnings to go back up. One thing I think is a mistake that analysts make about VMWare is that they look at it with too narrow a focus. They call it a software company. But it's a bit more than that.

IMO, the main vulnerability is exposure to M$FT's Hyper-V (which I have no personal experience with--all my stuff is running on VMWare ESX). If Hyper-V sucks, no problem. If Hyper-V is more expensive to license (likely), then VMW remains the gold standard. If M$FT does something to their server platform that introduces incompatibilities with ESX and other VMW platforms, that will be bad, but it can't happen for a few years at least. 2k8R2 and W7 work great on VMWare. I've also noticed the changes to the licensing structure for ESX 4 from 3.5 are likely to raise the revenue VMW can expect to bring in, not just from new datacenters and metal-to-virtual conversions, but also existing customers upgrading existing platforms.

So, basically I agree with you.

You're discounting the threat of Xen, KVM, and VirtualBox.  The latter especially, as Oracle could do some interesting things with that.

Hmm, yeah. I love VirtualBox on my desktop. I haven't used it on the enterprise level myself, but I understand it beats ESX in it's management interfaces/hypervisor (which does seem to be a VMWare weakness to me).

VMWare can count on its existing lead in this case I guess. Especially if it manages to become a sort of standard for big service companies (boarding teams pushing for certified VMWare experts and such)

[Caliga]

Ford is at 14.33.

Guess who else owns some of that shit?

[Ed Anger]

Ford is at 14.33.

Guess who else owns some of that shit?

[Caliga]

Strangely, my portfolio opened strong today and isn't sinking despite all the bad Japan news.  Exception: my position in Sony.

[Caliga]

My portfolio is still nicely up (0.78%, with F up 2.42% and MAIN up 1.90%).

[Ed Anger]

My Total(TOT) stock is doing awesome.

[Admiral Yi]

Total, like the Frog oil company?

[Ed Anger]

Total, like the Frog oil company?

Yep.

[Admiral Yi]

Fantastique.  ADRs or Paris Bourse shares?

Anyone ever owned shares in a company that was taken over?