Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono

[Josquius]

I don't really pay attention to daily movements and nor should you.

It doesn't make sense to sit on stock in profit but losing value when you can sell now and rebuy at a lower price. Even those where there's reason to be optimistic.
It's not something I feel I have to do of course. But if I do have time it earns a few quid: if I was playing with big money I could well imagine some people support themselves from understanding the ebbs and flows of a few stocks.

[crazy canuck]

What did I tell you Habs 

[Admiral Yi]

I don't really pay attention to daily movements and nor should you.

It doesn't make sense to sit on stock in profit but losing value when you can sell now and rebuy at a lower price. Even those where there's reason to be optimistic.
It's not something I feel I have to do of course. But if I do have time it earns a few quid: if I was playing with big money I could well imagine some people support themselves from understanding the ebbs and flows of a few stocks.

I think it's a mistake to try and time the market.  On the other hand I do think it is worthwhile buying dips, and it is fun and harmless to try and figure out the bottom of the dip.

[Tamas]

Understanding short term movements is an illusion. Sure, your guess can be educated and sometimes there are obvious plays but it's still gambling.

Espexially in the sense that all the bad instincts that accompany gambling can overtake you. Be careful.

[Habbaku]

What did I tell you Habs 

I'm just gonna go lie down, JFC.

[Tamas]

I don't really pay attention to daily movements and nor should you.

It doesn't make sense to sit on stock in profit but losing value when you can sell now and rebuy at a lower price. Even those where there's reason to be optimistic.
It's not something I feel I have to do of course. But if I do have time it earns a few quid: if I was playing with big money I could well imagine some people support themselves from understanding the ebbs and flows of a few stocks.

I think it's a mistake to try and time the market.  On the other hand I do think it is worthwhile buying dips, and it is fun and harmless to try and figure out the bottom of the dip.

Exactly as fun and harmless as trying to catch a falling knife.

[Habbaku]

I don't really pay attention to daily movements and nor should you.

It doesn't make sense to sit on stock in profit but losing value when you can sell now and rebuy at a lower price. Even those where there's reason to be optimistic.
It's not something I feel I have to do of course. But if I do have time it earns a few quid: if I was playing with big money I could well imagine some people support themselves from understanding the ebbs and flows of a few stocks.

I think it's a mistake to try and time the market.  On the other hand I do think it is worthwhile buying dips, and it is fun and harmless to try and figure out the bottom of the dip.

If there's a correct approach to watching daily movements, I can't disagree with this. On the other hand, I don't think people should generally be sitting on the sidelines with cash waiting to buy those dips, either. That is a form of timing, though a far less likely to backfire kind.

[crazy canuck]

I don't really pay attention to daily movements and nor should you.

It doesn't make sense to sit on stock in profit but losing value when you can sell now and rebuy at a lower price. Even those where there's reason to be optimistic.
It's not something I feel I have to do of course. But if I do have time it earns a few quid: if I was playing with big money I could well imagine some people support themselves from understanding the ebbs and flows of a few stocks.

I think it's a mistake to try and time the market.  On the other hand I do think it is worthwhile buying dips, and it is fun and harmless to try and figure out the bottom of the dip.

If there's a correct approach to watching daily movements, I can't disagree with this. On the other hand, I don't think people should generally be sitting on the sidelines with cash waiting to buy those dips, either. That is a form of timing, though a far less likely to backfire kind.

While, as someone who sat with a bunch of cash engaged in the "fun" of predicting when I should buy, it was hardly harmless.  I lost a lot of money in the sense that I gave up a lot of gains I would otherwise have had.  Like I said in my other posts, I am just lucky I had a finance guy who refused to allow me to sell what I did have invested (thank goodness).

[Admiral Yi]

Exactly as fun and harmless as trying to catch a falling knife.

For this to be true, you would have to be predicting the extinction of the financial system, and have already liquidated your holdings and turned them into ammo and survival rations.

[crazy canuck]

Exactly as fun and harmless as trying to catch a falling knife.

For this to be true, you would have to be predicting the extinction of the financial system, and have already liquidated your holdings and turned them into ammo and survival rations.

Or simply not take into consideration the money you would have made if you had not acted so stupidly.

[Admiral Yi]

If there's a correct approach to watching daily movements, I can't disagree with this. On the other hand, I don't think people should generally be sitting on the sidelines with cash waiting to buy those dips, either. That is a form of timing, though a far less likely to backfire kind.

It's pretty much the modern Buffet approach.

I think it makes a difference whether your stocks are generating a revenue stream that you can use to buy a dip (like mine does because of the commissions from selling options) or whether you are taking money from your regular income to sit passively in a brokerage account earning 5 basis points.

[Tamas]

I think you guys are mixing up different time frames in this discussion.

If you want to hold for years then trying and failing to buy the dip should largely be harmless but also feels like a largely pointless excersize.

However if you are aiming for short term shuffling like Tyr was implying you can absolutely make big loser moves by buying the dip.what is a dip in a 2 years scale can be a pretty rough fall  if you want to / have to sell a few weeks or a month from its start.

[Habbaku]

I don't really pay attention to daily movements and nor should you.

It doesn't make sense to sit on stock in profit but losing value when you can sell now and rebuy at a lower price. Even those where there's reason to be optimistic.
It's not something I feel I have to do of course. But if I do have time it earns a few quid: if I was playing with big money I could well imagine some people support themselves from understanding the ebbs and flows of a few stocks.

I think it's a mistake to try and time the market.  On the other hand I do think it is worthwhile buying dips, and it is fun and harmless to try and figure out the bottom of the dip.

If there's a correct approach to watching daily movements, I can't disagree with this. On the other hand, I don't think people should generally be sitting on the sidelines with cash waiting to buy those dips, either. That is a form of timing, though a far less likely to backfire kind.

While, as someone who sat with a bunch of cash engaged in the "fun" of predicting when I should buy, it was hardly harmless.  I lost a lot of money in the sense that I gave up a lot of gains I would otherwise have had.  Like I said in my other posts, I am just lucky I had a finance guy who refused to allow me to sell what I did have invested (thank goodness).

Yeah, and that's my point about holding cash waiting for those moments. Eventually, one of those moments is likely to come, but in the interim you've lost how much in dividends and possible gains? And with the potential that the dip is not even low enough to take you back to the starting point?

It's a mug's game.

[DGuller]

I don't really pay attention to daily movements and nor should you.

It doesn't make sense to sit on stock in profit but losing value when you can sell now and rebuy at a lower price. Even those where there's reason to be optimistic.
It's not something I feel I have to do of course. But if I do have time it earns a few quid: if I was playing with big money I could well imagine some people support themselves from understanding the ebbs and flows of a few stocks.

If stocks were guaranteed to act like a sine wave, then sure.  If you know that the price of the stock is going to come back to $25 infinite number of times, why not sell it when it's at $30?  I suspect that the flaw with your approach is that stocks are not in fact guaranteed to fluctuate perpetually.

[Josquius]

Timing things for the absolute top and bottom is a virtual impossibility.
Selling near where you think is a top and then buying when you think it's near a bottom... Often less difficult.

And its all gambling. That's why you won't find me putting big money into this stuff :p