Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono

[Admiral Yi]

Tesla: HAMMERED

And...back up.

[alfred russel]

Is PredictIt even a valid market, from a technical perspective?  The low betting limits seem to be a significant impediment towards making the market efficient.  My understanding is that sometimes you need a hammer of a huge bet to whack some sense into the market.

Moving from the US elections thread to here.

If the $850 limit makes markets less efficient, that is quality from the perspective of someone on the platform (though a negative that you can't place that "big bet").

Predictit charges 10% of winning trades and a 5% withdrawal fee. So if I buy a share at $0.50, and sell it at $0.60, predictit will give me $0.59 with $0.01 taken by the exchange (10% of winnings).

I started with $2k and put $1700 on the republicans to lose the presidential election and donald trump to lose with them at 44%. Since I can only do $850 per market, that is the max I could do (they have separate markets for the personal winner of the presidential election--you can still bet on Bloomberg  --and the party of the winner).

But they also have state wide races--which are bizarre. California is 6% chance of Trump -- I started by using my left over $300 going against Trump here. But then I had an idea and dropped another $1k and bet more against Trump in California and against Trump in NY state--where he is at 7% to win.

I would deposit a lot more money to bet on these type of races--I think the chance that Trump wins California or NY state is effective 0%. I think I'm basically getting a pretty good interest rate on a deposit. But there won't be another presidential election next year, and I'm worried about getting money stuck on the site. If this is a one time thing, I'm probably not going to get much on the California or NY state investments--I'm barely breaking even if I immediately withdraw the money after the election when i get hit with a 5% withdrawal fee.

Hopefully if Biden wins the overall election (and squeeks out victories in California and NY) I'll have about $4400 on the site and there will be enough obvious stuff to bet on next year that I can make something off that money. But the $850 limit is constraining.

[DGuller]

Yeah, I wonder how much value you can put on PredictIt odds when the market is clearly not efficient enough to even clear out 5-7% Trump victory chance in CA and NY.  The low betting limits prevent people from collecting nickels in front of steamrollers, which is dangerous but essential for market efficiency.

[alfred russel]

Yeah, I wonder how much value you can put on PredictIt odds when the market is clearly not efficient enough to even clear out 5-7% Trump victory chance in CA and NY.  The low betting limits prevent people from collecting nickels in front of steamrollers, which is dangerous but essential for market efficiency.

I may contribute more as we get closer to the election to try to capture the nickels if polls stay as they are. I'm not dismissive of a wave election in either direction if we are putting the odds extremely low.

The debates are a total wild card: either candidate could have a serious senior moment up to and including forgetting where they are and dropping trou and taking a dump on the debate stage.

Even without that possibility, there seems a decent chance people are going to realize that Trump really is an awful president, things really do suck, and a late break will turn his current 7 point deficit into something double digits.

Or on the other hand, democrats are disproportionately deterred from voting due to covid. Or more ominously, volunteering in urban areas, so voting in those areas becomes chaotic with a lack of poll workers. Or there are issues with mail in ballots (disqualifications, delivery, outright fraud, or some combination). The ultimate result being votes counted in 2020 being cast by a demographic group very different than what was expected.

That said--Trump at better than 5% in California and NY seems ridiculous.

[Josquius]

So... The market seems to be crashing a bit?

[Admiral Yi]

I mean, I would not call a 3% drop followed by a 1.5% rise crashing a bit?  That doesn't even meet the requirement for a correction, which is less than a crash?

[Tamas]

I mean, it's probably profit-taking pre-election or just buyers staying away until then.

[Tamas]

Intel got totally unfairly massacred for only matching earning expectations though. My stocks went from 11% up to 8% down in a space of a week.

[DGuller]

Intel got totally unfairly massacred for only matching earning expectations though. My stocks went from 11% up to 8% down in a space of a week.

I think it was massacred because AMD surged.  While AMD surged mostly at Nvidia's expense, I would think that any good news for AMD is bad news for Intel.  The more robust AMD is, the more of a threat to Intel it is.

[Tamas]

AMD last surge was exactly the same time Intel fell in after hours following the earnings report.

[DGuller]

AMD last surge was exactly the same time Intel fell in after hours following the earnings report.

And also the time they announced that their new GPU cards have gone from being shit to being the shit.

[Tamas]

AMD last surge was exactly the same time Intel fell in after hours following the earnings report.

And also the time they announced that their new GPU cards have gone from being shit to being the shit.

Isn't it though that that non-gaming hardware use far more Intel? To me AMD looks overvalued, pumped up by Robin Hood-using neckbeards.

[DGuller]

Isn't it though that that non-gaming hardware use far more Intel? To me AMD looks overvalued, pumped up by Robin Hood-using neckbeards.

I see no reason why that should persist, especially given Intel's price gouging for non-consumer hardware, which was more egregious than even for consumer hardware.  Big corporations have a lot of inertia, but they also have a lot of bean counters.

[Admiral Yi]

Market nicely up today. 

Yo Tams, you buy Uber?  Big jump today.

[Tamas]

Market nicely up today. 

Yo Tams, you buy Uber?  Big jump today.

Yeah up like 33 percent on it overall. I will have a look at it tomorrow and might take the humble profits.