Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono

[Hamilcar]

Is anyone willing to talk about their own equity/bond distribution?

Rule of thumb says 60/40.  I'm 100% stocks, a little cash waiting for a dip to buy into.

I just think yields are just to low to hold bonds.  I've also heard too much a bubble in bonds caused by investors chasing shitty returns.

Fuck bonds.

[crazy canuck]

You bond guys in bond funds or own individual bonds?

Both.  I let the guys who manage my portfolio put in a bond mix but they take into consideration the fact that I own bonds outside that portfolio.  I don't really like paying a management fee on those sorts of essentially fixed investments.

[Admiral Yi]

Tesla going nuts.

$420 now, IPO price $17. 

[Tonitrus]

Yeah, kinda wishing I bought it again back in the mid $200s.

But...we cannot all buy winning lottery tickets. 

[Admiral Yi]

I'm 100% stocks at the moment in my retirement portfolio with some crypto. I expect to be 100% in stocks for at least 15 more years, though I seriously question your portfolio's balance as you're presumably much closer to retirement than I am, Yi.

I think I'll stay 100% stocks.  Here's why.

As we've discussed before, we recovered from the last crash in about two years.  Even taking into account the longer time it took to recover from the dot com crash, that crash wiped out several prior years of equity appreciation which bonds did not benefit from.  To put it in child like terms, that crash, at the trough, reduced the long term yield on stocks to the level bonds had always been at.  By child like I mean I don't want to hunt down some historical charts and do the math.

And bond yields are just too damn low.  You might as well just hold cash.

[Tonitrus]

Sometimes it is good to bet on the crazy guy.   

[Admiral Yi]

He's a visionary. 

[Tonitrus]

Now I regret having not gone bigger. 

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/teslas-biggest-bull-stampedes-to-a-7000-price-target-2020-02-03

If you buy this lady's argument it's still a buying opportunity.  $7,000 base case by 2024, $15,000 best case, $1,500 worst case.

[Tonitrus]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/teslas-biggest-bull-stampedes-to-a-7000-price-target-2020-02-03

If you buy this lady's argument it's still a buying opportunity.  $7,000 base case by 2024, $15,000 best case, $1,500 worst case.

Yeah, I saw that.  I think that is a bit much, but I'm thinking $1K-1.5K is looking pretty realistic.  Especially if the Model Y starts off good.

Myself...I'd never buy a Model 3.  I really hate the big-iPad-only look.  The dash of the Model X is way, waaaay better.  Just the $100K. 

[Admiral Yi]

Dude, we're already pushing 800.  1,000 by 2024 would be pretty dire.

Although I can't bring myself to buy into this rocket ride.

Maybe if Elon tweets a death threat to the SEC chairman and creates another big dip.

[Tonitrus]

The one smart thing I did this time, though, is bought the stock in my Roth IRA (I had done a quick TSLA buy-and-sell a couple years ago too, but that was in my regular brokerage account)...the at least these gains are tax free. 

[Admiral Yi]

This is getting silly.

[Tonitrus]

I need to think about putting a trailing stop-loss on it now. 

[Habbaku]

Tesla is starting to scare me. What goes up that fast, that high, must surely come down pretty hard too, right? I just don't see the fundamentals there.