Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono

[Hamilcar]

Microsoft up over 8% on earnings beat. 

Yeah for quite a while this year I felt good for bailing out of it at $273, not anymore.

It's going to be over $450 in a year.

I would not expect 2020-21 to the be new normal on the stock market.

That assessment isn't based on overall market performance but on the fact that Microsoft is all in on AI and has a head start.

[Admiral Yi]

What's your rough division between ETFs and individual names? I try to minimize individual names unless I have a really solid thesis and that takes time.

Around a fifth in ETFs.

As for solid thesis, all I need is a hunch, one Motley Fool article for due diligence, then i throw the dice.

[Hamilcar]

What's your rough division between ETFs and individual names? I try to minimize individual names unless I have a really solid thesis and that takes time.

Around a fifth in ETFs.

As for solid thesis, all I need is a hunch, one Motley Fool article for due diligence, then i throw the dice.

Ah, a true wallstreetbets student 

I remember the days when Shkreli himself was a mod. That was glorious.

[Admiral Yi]

Ah, a true wallstreetbets student 

I remember the days when Shkreli himself was a mod. That was glorious.

Fuck that noise.  Those clowns don't diversify and they want to get rich quick so they bet the farm on call options.  As you can see I'm diversified and I've only bought one option in my life, a put on Gamestop at the peak of the frenzy.

Instead I'm getting a slow drip, drip, drip of income from *selling* options.

[crazy canuck]

Hami, what are your thoughts about the regulatory rejection in the UK for your favourite shares?

[Hamilcar]

Hami, what are your thoughts about the regulatory rejection in the UK for your favourite shares?

Minor issue.

[Sheilbh]

Hami, what are your thoughts about the regulatory rejection in the UK for your favourite shares?

The rise of the CMA as a very interventionist and merger-sceptical regulator is really interesting. They blocked the Sabre Farelogix deal and, after the event, are forcing Facebook to sell Giphy. Their guidance on how they'll approach tech mergers is also very interventionist and robust.

It's been developing for the last few years (also some big investigations ongoing on energy and cloud), but is striking.

[crazy canuck]

Hami, what are your thoughts about the regulatory rejection in the UK for your favourite shares?

The rise of the CMA as a very interventionist and merger-sceptical regulator is really interesting. They blocked the Sabre Farelogix deal and, after the event, are forcing Facebook to sell Giphy. Their guidance on how they'll approach tech mergers is also very interventionist and robust.

It's been developing for the last few years (also some big investigations ongoing on energy and cloud), but is striking.

Interesting. We are seeing a similar trend with Canadian regulators.  Previously the attitude seemed to be come one come all and buy our stuff.  But now, especially given the problem of China buying up our resource extraction companies, they have become more interventionist.

There is also more willingness to enforce the competition act.

[Sheilbh]

That makes sense - I think there's definitely growing focus on China and new national security grounds.

But here I think there's an interesting emerging focus on tech (Nvidia, Sabre, Giphy and now this deal) - and the CMA is going to be getting even more powers over digital markets. Fair to say not all regulators are anywhere near as activist.

Activision's response is extraordinary and basically asking for political intervention but, short of new legislation, I'm not sure there's much politicians can do (and literally yesterday they introduced a bill that would increase the CMA's responsibilities).

I'm not sure but would love to know why/how they've become so interventionist.

Edit: Another recent example of their focus on tech and digital markets was the deal with Google on App Store payments just last week.

[crazy canuck]

After shooting itself in the foot, the UK has to now go all in protectionist?

[Sheilbh]

Except for Nvidia-Arm, I don't think any of them involve UK companies (and that was a bit more political because chips).

Worth pointing out all the centre-right think tanks are fairly regularly apoplectic about the CMA. Worth noting in this case I believe the FTC has also objected (but very different/court based system there) and EU regulators won't give their view until the next few months.

[Valmy]

After shooting itself in the foot, the UK has to now go all in protectionist?

I think everybody kind of is. We seem to go in this pattern internationally of going all free trade and international cooperation to protectionism and every country for itself and then back again.

[crazy canuck]

After shooting itself in the foot, the UK has to now go all in protectionist?

I think everybody kind of is. We seem to go in this pattern internationally of going all free trade and international cooperation to protectionism and every country for itself and then back again.

Canada is still trying to avoid it, at least within North America.  The Americans are going even more protectionist than they have in the past though, which will mean Canada and Mexico will need to do the same.

[Jacob]

Activision's response is extraordinary and basically asking for political intervention but, short of new legislation, I'm not sure there's much politicians can do (and literally yesterday they introduced a bill that would increase the CMA's responsibilities).

What's the story with the CMA and Activision?

(and what does CMA stand for?)

[Richard Hakluyt]

CMA = Competition and Markets Authority

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/apr/26/what-does-uks-ban-on-microsofts-activision-blizzard-takeover-mean-for-gaming

The CMA maintains it is looking out for the interests of gamers. Their decision vetoes the planned merger. The USA and EU may think that having a relatively small economy interfere in this way is unacceptable.