Why China Won't Rule the World

[Camerus]

Predicting China's imminent financial meltdown has become something of a cottage industry for over a decade, and one made particularly lucrative by the fact that - so far- nothing has actually happened.  I find it difficult to get worked up about yet another alarmist article.

[Admiral Yi]

Yeah, I think China's soft power works more along the following lines:

1) We're interested in economic relationships with you and we're not going to give you any guff about your "internal affairs" in any shape or form.  Whether it's human rights, local kleptocrats, environmental issues or whatever we're not going to really care.  Let's do business.

2) We're a pretty big power with pull and money with somewhat different priorities than the US, Europe or the old USSR.  Sometimes that's a better fit, so let's do business.

3) We are very unlikely to engage in foreign military adventures.  It's all about business, so let's do it.

I imagine it helps quite a bit that there are no checks on China's ability to bribe business partners.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah, I think China's soft power works more along the following lines:

The article I read was basically saying that a lot of smaller nations, especially in ASEAN increasingly see China as effectively very similar to the US or other more developed nations in terms of economic practice.  Another problem is that China's industrialisation has led to massive overcapacity in some areas which means they're really damaging certain sectors in neighbouring countries, I believe Vietnam's already considering devaluation to try and compete with Chinese prices.  One line in the article struck me as interesting as well it was some Indonesian guy and he said 'China is China, you know.  Even the US can't talk to China.'  That and I think the perception that China is now perceived as a major economic player is a big shift from even 10 years ago when China could credibly claim to be a nation like Indonesia or Vietnam just bigger.

There is a good medium term bull case for China, based primarily on the fact that even now they are functioning at a relatively low average standard of living.  There are still hundreds of millions of people living at just at or above subsistence, and so just getting those people to even a substandard level by OECD standards could take involve decades of high growth.

I agree.  I suppose I didn't quite say what I meant earlier.  I think many Americans - and the American media - seems to have a ridiculously distorted picture of China's economic strength that overemphasises China's development (which has been remarkable) while showing very little awareness of the sheer amount of further development needed in China to reach even Eastern European levels.  I also think that there seems to be a blitheness about China's development - except, I imagine, in China's ruling class.  China should be an economic superpower, but getting there is very difficult and so we shouldn't just assume that it will inevitably happen when thinking about China.

A lot of the articles about how China and India will run the world or how the BRIC countries will dominate reminds me of an article I read in 2001 that was originally published in 1901 which predicted that the twentieth century would see the rise and rise in global economic strength of the USA, Belgium and Argentina.  I think development is actually very difficult and it can be derailed.  While I'd expect and hope that China and India assume what I'd consider a sort-of rightful place, I don't assume that it will happen as sure as night will follow day.

[Sheilbh]

I imagine it helps quite a bit that there are no checks on China's ability to bribe business partners.

Interestingly Chinese companies have got the sort of rights to the overwhelming majority of Afghan mines.  According to some US officials they managed to get one by bribing the Afghan Minister of Mines and Resources with $25 million (cash).

[Sheilbh]

Long term there is a big question mark, as to whether China can successfully pass the Chun-Chiang line - that is the point at which a society reaches a level of mass affluence such that hard authoritarian rule cannot be maintained at the same time as continuing economic progress.

I've always wondered if it's possible to have a soft authoritarian state, a pink police state if you will.  Have economic success and complete liberty to enjoy yourself: go and buy a new PC, play games, get drunk, sleep around, eat out and party.  However don't get involved in politics.

I think Italy always seems getting closer to that as politics there seems to be turning into a reality TV show.  It's just another form of entertainment to enjoy.

How weird it would be if a Communist country consciously tried to create false consciousness

[DisturbedPervert]

Predicting China's imminent financial meltdown has become something of a cottage industry for over a decade, and one made particularly lucrative by the fact that - so far- nothing has actually happened.  I find it difficult to get worked up about yet another alarmist article.

Yeap.  I often wonder if these articles about China's imminent collapse aren't covert PRC propaganda to make us let our guard down.   

[HisMajestyBOB]

Long term there is a big question mark, as to whether China can successfully pass the Chun-Chiang line - that is the point at which a society reaches a level of mass affluence such that hard authoritarian rule cannot be maintained at the same time as continuing economic progress.

I've always wondered if it's possible to have a soft authoritarian state, a pink police state if you will.  Have economic success and complete liberty to enjoy yourself: go and buy a new PC, play games, get drunk, sleep around, eat out and party.  However don't get involved in politics.

I think Italy always seems getting closer to that as politics there seems to be turning into a reality TV show.  It's just another form of entertainment to enjoy.

How weird it would be if a Communist country consciously tried to create false consciousness

Singapore maybe?
Well, except for all the stuff they ban or give you fines for. But other than that it seems to be fairly soft. Of course, it is a city-state, and what works for them might not for others.

[The Minsky Moment]

Long term there is a big question mark, as to whether China can successfully pass the Chun-Chiang line - that is the point at which a society reaches a level of mass affluence such that hard authoritarian rule cannot be maintained at the same time as continuing economic progress.

I've always wondered if it's possible to have a soft authoritarian state, a pink police state if you will.  Have economic success and complete liberty to enjoy yourself: go and buy a new PC, play games, get drunk, sleep around, eat out and party.  However don't get involved in politics.

It could be possible to have an affluent state that significantly restricts civil liberties.  Arguably Britain has been moving in that direction . . .

But it is hard for me to imagine a modern affluent society maintaining any stability without reasonably free elections, political competition and some possibility of electoral change.  Japan kind of got away with it for a while but ultimately it could not be sustained.

[Admiral Yi]

But it is hard for me to imagine a modern affluent society maintaining any stability without reasonably free elections, political competition and some possibility of electoral change.  Japan kind of got away with it for a while but ultimately it could not be sustained.

Japan worked fine as long as they could deliver steady growth.

[Camerus]

But it is hard for me to imagine a modern affluent society maintaining any stability without reasonably free elections, political competition and some possibility of electoral change.  Japan kind of got away with it for a while but ultimately it could not be sustained.

Japan worked fine as long as they could deliver steady growth.

Japan also had some of the above, and certainly more political competition than exists in China.

Edit:  I had also written something about the rule of law, but I'm not 100% sure I could post it.   

[Richard Hakluyt]

I've always wondered if it's possible to have a soft authoritarian state, a pink police state if you will.  Have economic success and complete liberty to enjoy yourself: go and buy a new PC, play games, get drunk, sleep around, eat out and party.  However don't get involved in politics.

We will have the opportunity to find out if the Labour party win the next general election 



In fact, thinking about it, we may well find out regardless of which of the parties wins. A hung parliament and a period of minor civil disturbance may be our best bet to get back on track.

[HisMajestyBOB]

A hung parliament and a period of minor civil disturbance may be our best bet to get back on track.

[Josquius]

It could be possible to have an affluent state that significantly restricts civil liberties.  Arguably Britain has been moving in that direction . . .

So the media keeps telling me but I just don't see it.
I fail to be too concerned about ID cards beyond expense and pointlessness, CCTV is good, etc....

I've always wondered if it's possible to have a soft authoritarian state, a pink police state if you will.  Have economic success and complete liberty to enjoy yourself: go and buy a new PC, play games, get drunk, sleep around, eat out and party.  However don't get involved in politics.

Some sort of athiest UAE?
hmm......

[Malthus]

Long term there is a big question mark, as to whether China can successfully pass the Chun-Chiang line - that is the point at which a society reaches a level of mass affluence such that hard authoritarian rule cannot be maintained at the same time as continuing economic progress.

I've always wondered if it's possible to have a soft authoritarian state, a pink police state if you will.  Have economic success and complete liberty to enjoy yourself: go and buy a new PC, play games, get drunk, sleep around, eat out and party.  However don't get involved in politics.

I think Italy always seems getting closer to that as politics there seems to be turning into a reality TV show.  It's just another form of entertainment to enjoy.

How weird it would be if a Communist country consciously tried to create false consciousness

It would be possible to create such a state; it would not I think be possible to keep it "soft", since without some form of election-like checks and balances invariably eventually you would get a leader who had no interest in keeping it "soft" and there would be nothing to stop them.

The problem in any system of government is transitions of power. A dictatorship by a benevolent philosopher-king would be ideal, if you found the right person - but how would such a person ensure transition to a similarly benevolent ruler? Marcus Aurelius' son was Commoditus ...

[Razgovory]

I imagine it helps quite a bit that there are no checks on China's ability to bribe business partners.

Interestingly Chinese companies have got the sort of rights to the overwhelming majority of Afghan mines.  According to some US officials they managed to get one by bribing the Afghan Minister of Mines and Resources with $25 million (cash).

Good for them.  Let them figure out how to protect them.