Reid's re-election hopes look dim

[jimmy olsen]

If he loses, who do you think will become the Majority leader? The Dems have such a big lead that even a bad election will leave them in control be at least a slim margin, so what Democrat would take on the task? Someone from a more liberal state that doesn't have to worry about the blowback that sank Reid and Daschle?

http://www.lvrj.com/opinion/reids-chances-look-really-dim-78628302.html

SHERMAN FREDERICK: Reid's chances look really dim

Health care bill is a killer

SHERMAN FREDERICK
MORE COLUMNS

Remember what "Dandy" Don Meredith used to sing in the early days of "Monday Night Football," when the game fell out of reach?

"Turn out the lights ... the party's over."

Well, if the latest polling data are any measure of the re-election chances of Sen. Harry Reid, Nevada voters stand ready to sing the same refrain to their four-term senior U.S. senator.

A fresh poll, conducted last week by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Washington, D.C., for the state's largest newspaper, the Las Vegas Review-Journal, shows Reid's approval rating again stuck at a dismal 38 percent. This will disappoint a Reid camp that has furiously saturated the airwaves with advertising to, as the campaign puts it, "reintroduce" Harry to Nevada voters.

Apparently Nevadans didn't need a reintroduction. Reid's getting the thumbs down from 49 percent of Nevada voters -- the same high level as the start of the year.

And, to make matters worse, Republicans and independents seem reunited and re-energized by the Obama presidency. Each of the two senatorial front-runners in this latest poll -- Republicans Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian -- would defeat Reid if the election were held today.

Lowden bests Reid 51 percent to 41 percent statewide. And what surely scares the Reid war room the most is the part of the poll that shows Lowden leading Reid in the Democratic stronghold of Clark County, 47 percent to 44 percent. It's within the poll's 4 percentage-point margin of error, but that's still a killer number for a Democrat in Nevada.

At the risk of sounding like that Sham Wow guy ... wait, there's more. And none of it is good for Sen. Reid.

This new poll also asked Nevada voters about the health care "reform" bill. Reid is clearly out of sync by a wide margin with voters on this key issue.

Reid's been carrying the water for President Obama on the health care debate in the Senate. He's walked so far out on the plank in support of the parts of the health care "reform" bill Nevadans hate the most that imagining a reconciliation and a retreat to the home ship seems nearly impossible.

Consider this poll question: "Do you approve of or disapprove of Senator Harry Reid's efforts to get a health care reform bill through the U.S. Senate?"

Answer: 50 percent of registered Nevada voters disapprove, 39 percent approve and 11 percent are not sure.

This means success on health care will provide the Reid campaign, at the very best, with zero tailwind going into an election year. Not only does this snapshot of his personal popularity look lousy, Nevadans remain substantially disconnected from his crowning achievement as a legislator and leader: health care "reform." A win for Reid on health care is a loss for him in Nevada.

Not good. Reid simply can't afford to give up any more ground in the polls, for what good comes from being hailed in the streets of San Francisco or the village of SoHo, only to be despised from Elko to Boulder City?

Now, there are always a few wild cards in the deck of any election, especially one almost a year away. But excluding the possibility that Republicans nominate a closet pedophile caught on tape kicking puppies, the chances of a win for Reid seem dimmer than ever before.

Reid needs a flat-out game changer, something in the order of a complete restoration of the economy coupled with the personal apprehension of Osama bin Laden, otherwise ...

"Turn out the lights ... the party's over."

Sherman Frederick (sfrederick@ reviewjournal.com) is publisher of the Las Vegas Review-Journal and president of Stephens Media.

[Jaron]

The heir apparent is probably Bobby Drake.

[CountDeMoney]

Good. Adios, dickhead.

[jimmy olsen]

The heir apparent is probably Bobby Drake.

Nice one.

[KRonn]

Reid needs a flat-out game changer, something in the order of a complete restoration of the economy coupled with the personal apprehension of Osama bin Laden, otherwise ...


Rambo Reid!!!

[Faeelin]

Great, with him gone we can restart Yucca! 

[Fate]

Durbin is the obvious choice, but Reid isn't going to lose.

Did you see the same Nevada I did in 2008? Obama won this supposedly conservative bastion by 12 points. 

[jimmy olsen]

Durbin is the obvious choice, but Reid isn't going to lose.

Did you see the same Nevada I did in 2008? Obama won this supposedly conservative bastion by 12 points. 

The Bush legacy isn't on the ballot anymore.

[Sheilbh]

He's been a Senator for over 20 years in a swing state.  That requires some serious political savviness and skills, so I think it's premature to count him out.  I've no idea who'd replace him if he lost.

[Admiral Yi]

Swing state or bastion of conservatism, I'm so confused.

Shelf, I think you're understating the power of incumbency.

[grumbler]

He's been a Senator for over 20 years in a swing state.  That requires some serious political savviness and skills, so I think it's premature to count him out.  I've no idea who'd replace him if he lost.

Agreed.  In fact, Sherman Frederick not only doesn't understand this, he also doesn't understand the use of the song "Turn out the lights..."

The election isn't for another year.  Things change over time.

[Sheilbh]

Shelf, I think you're understating the power of incumbency.

That could be right.  I don't think it's such a big thing in the UK.

I'd question the 'bastion of conservatism' thing.  In Reid's time in Senate Nevada's supported every Presidential winner.  Appropriately enough it enjoys swinging.

[alfred russel]

He's been a Senator for over 20 years in a swing state.  That requires some serious political savviness and skills, so I think it's premature to count him out.  I've no idea who'd replace him if he lost.

Before he became majority leader he was one of the most conservative democrats--I think he was even pro life? Becoming majority leader forced him into standard democratic liberal positions. If 2010 is a republican year, and it looks like it will be, he is probably toast.

The republican candidate could always turn out to be a disaster though.

[DGuller]

I wonder if some local issues wouldn't help Reid.  Nevada has a history of having Senators with vastly disproportional power due to their seniority, and it bought them lots of perks.  Would they be ready toss someone with so much power overboard when push comes to shove?

[derspiess]

Good. Adios, dickhead.

What's your beef with Harry?