Winning Afghanistan

[Sheilbh]

I am still concerned that in the long run, there is no way Afghanistan can possibly support the size of security forces they need, which means that even if we can scale back US troop commitments, we will be footing the bill for their security apparatus for the indefinite future.

They can't.  The Pentagon wants to train an Afghan army of, I think 300 000 - up from 260 000 - which is just a preposterously large force for the world's poorest country.  All projections from the DoD are, I believe, based on the Afghans having such a large force.

Afghanistan doesn't return to being an export platform for terrorism. 

Okay, but what are the conditions necessary for that?  Wouldn't a Joe Biden solution of just having Western forces in Kabul to do counter-terrorism operations and special forces stuff be enough?

[crazy canuck]

Winning is going to be defined as the minimal possible threshold to get the troops out.

[Admiral Yi]

Wouldn't a Joe Biden solution of just having Western forces in Kabul to do counter-terrorism operations and special forces stuff be enough?

How do you gather intel about targets?

[Queequeg]

Query:
When a country is the world's poorest, how easy is it to bring it in to, say, lower-middle area, like Iraq? 

I'd think that an agricultural reform, a long with some basic level of education in all of the major towns would do a world of good, and that things like getting people to lower tariffs on Afghan agricultural exports and carpets might as well. 

[citizen k]

Balkh becomes the capital of a Neo-Baktria. Buddhism is reintroduced and the Bamiyan statues are restored.

[Malthus]

Query:
When a country is the world's poorest, how easy is it to bring it in to, say, lower-middle area, like Iraq? 

I'd think that an agricultural reform, a long with some basic level of education in all of the major towns would do a world of good, and that things like getting people to lower tariffs on Afghan agricultural exports and carpets might as well.

Difficult when the only cash crop anyone appears to want out of Afganistan is opium. This makes US plans for the country doubly troublesome. Support "the people" and you support Heroin; attempt to change this by eliminating opium, you piss the people off.

[Sheilbh]

How do you gather intel about targets?

You'd still have a presence in Afghanistan from which to launch the strikes.  How do you gather intel for the drone hits in Pakistan?  I doubt it's the Pakistani military.

[Phillip V]

Perhaps only 5-10% of Afghan women are literate. There is not a high bar to reach.

[MadImmortalMan]

Query:
When a country is the world's poorest, how easy is it to bring it in to, say, lower-middle area, like Iraq? 

I'd think that an agricultural reform, a long with some basic level of education in all of the major towns would do a world of good, and that things like getting people to lower tariffs on Afghan agricultural exports and carpets might as well.

Difficult when the only cash crop anyone appears to want out of Afganistan is opium. This makes US plans for the country doubly troublesome. Support "the people" and you support Heroin; attempt to change this by eliminating opium, you piss the people off.

Meh. Let's just legalize opium. Maybe it can help us pay for the war.



Edit: We'll export it to China and ease the trade deficit too.  Just watch out for those Boxers.

[Admiral Yi]

You'd still have a presence in Afghanistan from which to launch the strikes.  How do you gather intel for the drone hits in Pakistan?  I doubt it's the Pakistani military.

If AQ reestablishes a presence in Afghanistan similar to what they have in the Pak tribal regions I don't think most people will consider that a success.

[CountDeMoney]

I wonder when we talk about Afghanistan what we all mean by 'winning'.  What are our definitions of success or of victory? 

As many dead fucking moonworshippers that have it in for western liberal ideals, Jews, and the Star Spangled Way of Life.
But, I'll settle for the complete and total eradication of the Taliban and the prevention of an Al-Qaeda playground.

[Jaron]

I laugh that has been Russian generals are still giving interviews calling Afghanistan our Vietnam.

The same generals who probably said America would never be able to take the country by force.

USA > Russia

[Sheilbh]

You'd still have a presence in Afghanistan from which to launch the strikes.  How do you gather intel for the drone hits in Pakistan?  I doubt it's the Pakistani military.

If AQ reestablishes a presence in Afghanistan similar to what they have in the Pak tribal regions I don't think most people will consider that a success.

But that's unlikely given that the Biden counter-terrorism option still had 30 000 troops in Afghanistan as well as drones and airforce.  My comparison with Pakistan is that you have intelligence enough to strike there, surely that wouldn't be a problem in a country where you'd still have a significant troop presence and a friendly if ineffective government.

[Admiral Yi]

But that's unlikely given that the Biden counter-terrorism option still had 30 000 troops in Afghanistan as well as drones and airforce.  My comparison with Pakistan is that you have intelligence enough to strike there, surely that wouldn't be a problem in a country where you'd still have a significant troop presence and a friendly if ineffective government.

I understand your comparison with Pakistan.  I'm pointing out that we have the power to strike but not to eradicate.