Is Israel Too Strong for America?

[Valmy]

I think that this is a very important issue.  In polling in Arab countries Israel and Palestine is considered the most important issue for around 40% and top 3 for everyone but 2%.  Will it automatically cause regional peace?  Of course not but I think it's a necessary precondition to a more peaceable and democratic Middle East.

Of course it is an important issue.  But there seem to be more people interested in it not being solved than are and therefore it will continue indefinitely it seems.

[Valmy]

I think it's in Israel's national interest to freeze settlement growth.

Is it?  Haven't recent events confirmed rather dramatically that freezing or rolling back settlements is, in fact, rather disastrous for Israel's national interests?

If you want to make a case that national interests dictate a certain policy shouldn't you have evidence and results to point to?  That is the problem we are having in trying to get the Israelis to dance to our tune...we have nothing to offer them and they have no reason to comply.

[Sheilbh]

I think, though, that if you have a Palestinian state with some level of democracy living in relative peace with Israel would remove a lot of the problems.  I'm sure some people could be made very angry by the right to return but I don't think most people's anger is so abstract and I think it's difficult to whip up a mob with something so abstract.  It's simple images that makes the anger bulldozers and airstrikes; the shrieking Palestinian mother and the crushed house.  I think the actual issues or outlines of a peace would generally be of secondary concern, if that.

[Valmy]

I think, though, that if you have a Palestinian state with some level of democracy living in relative peace with Israel would remove a lot of the problems.

Of course it would, that is the Holy Grail and the goal of American policy in the area since 1947.  Unfortunately it is looking about as realistic as finding the Holy Grail these days.  That is like saying having a billion dollars would remove alot of my financial problems.

I'm sure some people could be made very angry by the right to return but I don't think most people's anger is so abstract and I think it's difficult to whip up a mob with something so abstract.  It's simple images that makes the anger bulldozers and airstrikes; the shrieking Palestinian mother and the crushed house.

Those images are very damaging but unfortunately the anger and fury at Israel did not abate one iota when Israel pulled back.  It makes it very hard for those of us who support a Palestinian State.

[Sheilbh]

Is it?  Haven't recent events confirmed rather dramatically that freezing or rolling back settlements is, in fact, rather disastrous for Israel's national interests?

I don't think settlement growth is sustainable from the perspective that the Israeli state has to protect them and provide services to them.  I think it's bad for any state to be held hostage by an often extremist but vocal minority.  Settlements give to much power to a minority and cost too much for my taste. 

Plus I think the circumstances of the Gaza withdrawal were uniquely difficult.  Arafat died, just beforehand, leaving the Palestinan government in a state of chaos, then there were elections, the wrong side won - especially in Gaza - and Fatah which was never very strong in Gaza suffered from the lack of a strong charismatic leader.  The Sharon was incapicitated and I think Olmert was a great politician but I think a criminally negligent statesman.  Gaza's been difficult but what's interesting is that I don't think anyone would suggest that settlements would be an answer to it.  Plus I really think Gaza's secondary overall.

I don't think settlement expansion is worth it for Israel and I think the costs and negatives of continued expansion considerably outweigh the potential costs of freezing (and I don't know if one can dramatically stop) expansion.

[Malthus]

I think, though, that if you have a Palestinian state with some level of democracy living in relative peace with Israel would remove a lot of the problems.  I'm sure some people could be made very angry by the right to return but I don't think most people's anger is so abstract and I think it's difficult to whip up a mob with something so abstract.  It's simple images that makes the anger bulldozers and airstrikes; the shrieking Palestinian mother and the crushed house.  I think the actual issues or outlines of a peace would generally be of secondary concern, if that.

All it takes is some disaffected group launching rockets at Israel. Then, you'll have the airstrikes, the shrieking moms (in the case of the Lebanon War, apparently the *same* shrieking mom), etc. 

[Sheilbh]

All it takes is some disaffected group launching rockets at Israel. Then, you'll have the airstrikes, the shrieking moms (in the case of the Lebanon War, apparently the *same* shrieking mom), etc.

Not necessarily.  I believe that should be the responsibility of any Palestinian state that makes peace with Israel - and from some stuff I've read recently the US, EU and Israel all believe that the Palestinian effort against terrorism in the West Bank is better than it's every been.  If that state isn't able or willing to restrain their extremists and cannot be trusted to retaliate then there's no practical basis for a sustainable peace; but I'd say the same of Israel.  If the Israeli government is unable or unwilling to fulfill it's agreements - such as freezing settlements - then it's very difficult for there to be a real peace.

[Valmy]

I don't think settlement expansion is worth it for Israel and I think the costs and negatives of continued expansion considerably outweigh the potential costs of freezing (and I don't know if one can dramatically stop) expansion.

I am certainly not in favor of settlement but those Israelis who are in favor of them are gaining more and more of a sympathetic ear right now from their compatriots.  A case could be made by an Israeli nationalist that the settlements enable the Israelis to keep the Palestinians divided, weak, and under surveillance.  It also holds the eventual means of pushing the Palestinians out of area altogether which is obviously an idea that appeals to alot of Israeli right wingers.  The only way to defeat the settlers and their allies is to offer an alternative and thus far we have failed to do so.  Right now the choice seems to be either sit passively by or attack via settlements.

[Valmy]

If the Israeli government is unable or unwilling to fulfill it's agreements - such as freezing settlements - then it's very difficult for there to be a real peace.

Well the question is if freezing settlements or pulling back would bring about real peace.  That is the case to be made.  Right now there is zero evidence to support that case unfortunately.  Hence my frustration.

[The Brain]

Palestinians. Let's neuter them from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.

[Neil]

I don't think settlement growth is sustainable from the perspective that the Israeli state has to protect them and provide services to them.

But does that really matter?  Protecting the settlements doesn't make a difference, since Israel is already an armed camp surrounded by enemies.  And don't they already supply services to the Palestinian territories as well?  They seem to control electrical supply to Gaza, at least.

[The Minsky Moment]

If the Israeli government is unable or unwilling to fulfill it's agreements - such as freezing settlements - then it's very difficult for there to be a real peace.

True, but recall that not so long ago, when the Israeli government was both able and willing to fulfill its agreements, it was still very difficult for there to be real peace.

[Berkut]

It's simple images that makes the anger bulldozers and airstrikes; the shrieking Palestinian mother and the crushed house.  I think the actual issues or outlines of a peace would generally be of secondary concern, if that.

Indeed - especially when those images are manufactured.

[Admiral Yi]

Nonsense. Golda Meir said in 1969, that the Palestinians didn't exist. Compare that with the situation 10 years ago.

???

I thought we were talking about concessions leading to a decrease in violence.  What does Meir's comment have to do with that?

[The Minsky Moment]

Palestinians are that which something greater can be thought.

Palestinians often lack understanding.

To have understanding is greater than existing without understanding.

Therefore, Palestinians may exist.