The fight over a Blair presidency

[Alatriste]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/gavinhewitt/

The fight over a Blair presidency

Gavin Hewitt | 11:04 UK time, Sunday, 25 October 2009

In the days and weeks ahead the arguments over whether Tony Blair should be the first President of the European Council are likely to intensify. The British Foreign Secretary David Miliband, gave strong backing today to Tony Blair getting the top job. European leaders are dividing between those who want a charismatic figure to be the face of Europe on the international stage and those who want a more modest "business manager".

David Miliband said today it was very important for Europe to have a strong figure, who when they land in Beijing and Moscow the "traffic stops" for the motorcade. "It would be good for Britain and for Europe if Tony Blair became that candidate." However it is not clear whether Tony Blair would put himself forward until the job is more closely defined.

My understanding is that the former prime minister would not be interested in just chairing summits and seeking out consensus. Increasingly the presidency is developing into a split between the big countries and the smaller states. Britain wants a powerful big hitter as president, so does France, Italy and probably Spain.

Angela Merkel's position is not yet clear and much will rest on what she decides. But the smaller players like Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg are set against a strong presidency. Other countries like Poland do not want to see their position weakened when it comes to their turn to hold the rotating presidency of the EU.

So the battle will sharpen. The main arguments against Tony Blair so far have been that Britain is not part of the Euro but expect more attention to move to the fact that he will be the main witness at the forthcoming Chilcot inquiry into the Iraq war. One of the key questions to be decided is whether the former prime minister abused power.

The Conservatives have been actively telling EU ambassadors that they object strongly to a Blair presidency. That may have the opposite effect to what they desire. Some EU countries see a Blair presidency as providing a counterpoint to a eurosceptic David Cameron government.

Now if Tony Blair stumbles then Britain will turn its eye to the job of High Representative for Foreign Affairs. The person will be vice president of the European Commission and will have a diplomatic service at their disposal. It is potentially a very powerful job. David Miliband will again speak about this role on Monday. It has led to speculation in Europe that he is interested in the role.

He said today that "No, I am not a candidate. I'm not available." That may not stem the growing interest in the British foreign secretary in European capitals.

I hereby announce that should Tony Blair become the first "president of Europe" I will stomach a whole dish of broccoli and cauliflower. And the only things I hate more than broccoli are cauliflowers and nazis. I don't know what weed some persons are smoking, but it must be strong indeed to make them think Blair can become president!

1. Because of the things he did. For many Europeans (and British) he will always be Tony BLIAR.

2. Because of the things he did not. He is supposed to be working as "official Envoy of the Quartet on the Middle East on behalf of the United Nations, the European Union, the United States, and Russia". And he has done exactly nothing... In fact, one has to wonder why did he accept the position if he wasn't interested at all.

3. Because he's from one of the big countries. The other 'bigs' won't support a British candidate, smaller countries will want the first president to be from one of the medium powers. Someone like Vaclav Havel, for example...

4. Because he's British, nuff said. Seriously, how can one imagine the other countries will support a British president when Great Britain in the near future can be having a referendum on the Treaty that made him president, if not on leaving the Union?   

And on top of that Gordon Brown will surely "love" the idea and the Tories, which everyone expect to win the next election, are dead set against him... No, I will be mildly surprised if Milliband gets the "European Foreign Office", but... Tony Blair, president? That wouldn't be a surprise but a miracle! If anyone thinks he has any realistic possibility I would like to hear why...

[Richard Hakluyt]

Yeah, weird isn't it?

I can't see him getting the job, which is a great relief as several more years of Blair's lower lip-trembling "sincerity" would be most disagreeable.

One assumes they will dig up an extremely boring Belgian for this role, or maybe a Eastern European with more personal clout but from an inconsiderable country.

[Syt]

I don't see the problems. I'm totally in favor of a Linda Blair presidency.

[Alatriste]

One assumes they will dig up an extremely boring Belgian for this role, or maybe a Eastern European with more personal clout but from an inconsiderable country.

I forgot to comment some have said Felipe González is another possible president, but in my opinion with Barroso and Solana the Iberian peninsula is already heavily overrepresented. Suggesting another Iberian for a top position would probably cause as many laughs as Blair's candidacy (and besides González speaks very good French, but his English isn't good enough unless he has worked on it, and that's an essential skill for the position)

This page seems a really good resume of the possible candidates

http://www.euractiv.com/en/future-eu/choosing-europe/article-185666?_print

[Razgovory]

So this isn't really an elected position is it?

[Cerr]

One assumes they will dig up an extremely boring Belgian for this role, or maybe a Eastern European with more personal clout but from an inconsiderable country.

I forgot to comment some have said Felipe González is another possible president, but in my opinion with Barroso and Solana the Iberian peninsula is already heavily overrepresented. Suggesting another Iberian for a top position would probably cause as many laughs as Blair's candidacy (and besides González speaks very good French, but his English isn't good enough unless he has worked on it, and that's an essential skill for the position)

This page seems a really good resume of the possible candidates

http://www.euractiv.com/en/future-eu/choosing-europe/article-185666?_print

I really hope that corrupt shit Bertie Ahern doesn't get it. At the moment he's flogging his autobiography, in interviews he takes absolutely no responsibility for the economic mess he left the country in.

Also I certainly wouldn't classify him as a centrist. He has done his best to help his wealthy builder friends and the Catholic church.

If he doesn't get the job of President of Europe, there's still a risk he might get elected President of Ireland, which would also be awful.

[Alatriste]

So this isn't really an elected position is it?

Treaty of Lisbon, article 9B

5. The European Council shall elect its President, by a qualified majority, for a term of two and a half years, renewable once. In the event of an impediment or serious misconduct, the European Council can end the President's term of office in accordance with the same procedure.

The Council is composed by the primer ministers or presidents of each country and the president of the Commission, José Manuel Durão Barroso, 28 members in total. "Qualified majority" means  55% of member states and 65% of the Union population... in other words, to reach it you need the majority of the big countries to reach that 65% of the population, but also the support of a fair number of small countries (55% means 15 countries from 27 if I'm not wrong)

IMHO it's a bit complex but more democratic than US Senate, for example.

[Razgovory]

I don't see how that's more democratic then electing a senator.

[grumbler]

IMHO it's a bit complex but more democratic than US Senate, for example.

It is about as democratic as Republican Rome.  Not sure how weighted voting based on money or whatever qualifies as "more democratic" than one man, one vote.

[grumbler]

I don't see how that's more democratic then electing a senator.

I think he is talking about the President Pro Tem of the Senate.  It would be silly to compare an organizational vote to a popular one, rather than another organizational vote.

We are talking about the President of the European Council, not an actual "President of Europe."  The equivelent would be the old "President of the Continental Congress" under the US Articles of Confederation.

[Warspite]

Europe will get the president it deserves, which to say an uninspired one.

[Barrister]

Europe will get the president it deserves, which to say an uninspired one.

Say what you will about Blair, but I'm sure he'd be a much more compelling President than some unknown Eurocrat.

[Richard Hakluyt]

No, we want a Belgian non-entity and we want him now 

Looking at the list Alatriste posted my vote is for Herman van Rompuy. Just imagine the Sun headline if he got involved in a sex scandal :

EU President in 3-in-a-bed Rompuy-Pumpuy!!

[Warspite]

Europe will get the president it deserves, which to say an uninspired one.

Say what you will about Blair, but I'm sure he'd be a much more compelling President than some unknown Eurocrat.

I agree.

[Zanza]

I don't see how that's more democratic then electing a senator.

I think it is somewhat similar in procedure of electing the US president. Each member state elects its own representatives for the "electoral college" aka EU council, with a first-past-the-post system. These representatives (who also happen to be the national government ) then vote in one bloc per country and the bigger countries have more votes than the smaller ones. A difference is that the voting weight is not strictly according to population but rather favors the small countries and disfavors the big countries.