High-Speed Rail in the US: why the hell not

[MadImmortalMan]

I think we should replace intercontinental flights with fast steamships too.

[alfred russel]

I concede on the environmental component, but regarding the other externalities: Amtrak is heavily subsidized--someone posted a billion a year. The comparison shouldn't be how terrible the congestion would be if Amtrak disappeared, but how bad the congestion would be if Amtrak disappeared and the subsidies were put into road construction and maintenance or airport expansion. A billion a year could support a lot of new lanes.

Yes, that is the measure.  Given that
(1) constructing a mile of a single lane of highway costs about $2.5 million for materials and labor
(2) constructing each each interchange costs about about $10 million, and
(3) maintaining a mile of an average lane of road costs about $100,000 per year
we can calculate the opportunity cost of AMTRAK, once we include land purchases and planning costs in that total.

If that is the way we are going to compare things, and those are the correct values, then Amtrak is going to have a hard time justifying its subsidy.

I did some research into passenger miles to compare the New Jersey turnpike to Amtrak (yeah, I know I'm wasting my time):

1998 data: New Jersey Turnpike passenger miles: 5 billion

http://knowledge.fhwa.dot.gov/cops/hcx.nsf/0/ba2414ce1eac182685256dc500674090/$FILE/NJTA%20proposal%20-FINAL-%205-22-01.pdf

2003 data: Amtrak Passenger miles: 5.7 billion

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amtrak

The New Jersey turnpike is 122 miles long, and is between 4 and 14 lanes wide. So using grumbler's figures, and assuming lane additions equal to the New Jersey turnpike will accomodate the traffic from Amtrak, it seems like it would be more cost effective to add lanes rather than support Amtrak.

I don't think grumbler's figures would apply to New Jersey.  Let's take Garden State Parkway widening project as an example, which is going on right now, and is sorely needed.  It's going to turn GSP from 2 lanes in each direction to 3, from exit 30 to exit 80, at a total cost of $900 million dollars.  That's about $9 million per lane-mile, although I ignored the cost of interchanges that are also affected.

Even at $9 million per lane mile, I still think it would be worth it, though the numbers would be close and would depend on the maintenance number not being understated.

The reality is that Amtrak ridership is light enough that amtrak disappearing wouldn't be noticed in many parts of the country and could be absorbed by the existing road system.

[Berkut]

I think we should replace intercontinental flights with fast steamships too.

That is just silly. A much more practical solution is a trans-Atlantic tunnel.

[PDH]

I think we should replace intercontinental flights with fast steamships too.

That is just silly. A much more practical solution is a trans-Atlantic tunnel.

I think the A-Hole evacuated tunnel shows a lot of promise...

[DGuller]

Even at $9 million per lane mile, I still think it would be worth it, though the numbers would be close and would depend on the maintenance number not being understated.

The reality is that Amtrak ridership is light enough that amtrak disappearing wouldn't be noticed in many parts of the country and could be absorbed by the existing road system.

I've heard estimates that if Northeast Corridor disappeared, I-95 would have to be widened by 7 lanes along the path (not just in New Jersey).  That came from a pro-Amtrak politician, so one should be skeptical, but your numbers in the other post make this figure seem plausible.

[stjaba]

One of the most likely to succeed high speed rail projects is actually in Florida. The state has already secured a right of way for a high speed corridor between Tampa and Orlando, and has already completed most of the necessary impact studies. The main thing holding back construction is money. Supposedly, Florida has a really good chance of securing stimulus money in order to begin within the next couple years.

My main objection? Tampa and Orlando are both highly decentralized cities with poor mass transit. The fastest train in the world won't solve that problem. The main benefit will be for tourists- they will be able to take a train from the airport to Disney.

[grumbler]

The New Jersey turnpike is 122 miles long, and is between 4 and 14 lanes wide. So using grumbler's figures, and assuming lane additions equal to the New Jersey turnpike will accomodate the traffic from Amtrak, it seems like it would be more cost effective to add lanes rather than support Amtrak.

Yes.  If we use six lanes as an average, then the 30-year cost for the NJT is a bit more than $4 billion plus planning an land acquisition, as opposed to 30 billion for Amtrak. Land would have to be pretty expensive to make Amtrak competitive on that basis.

[alfred russel]

One of the most likely to succeed high speed rail projects is actually in Florida. The state has already secured a right of way for a high speed corridor between Tampa and Orlando, and has already completed most of the necessary impact studies. The main thing holding back construction is money. Supposedly, Florida has a really good chance of securing stimulus money in order to begin within the next couple years.

My main objection? Tampa and Orlando are both highly decentralized cities with poor mass transit. The fastest train in the world won't solve that problem. The main benefit will be for tourists- they will be able to take a train from the airport to Disney.

The problem still is that everyone in Tampa and Orlando has a car, plus if you are in either city you will need a car. Why not just drive?

(I have driven on I4 and was in a horrendous traffic jam, so if that is common, maybe that is a reason)

[Richard Hakluyt]

Well, if you are on a train you can read a book, play a game on your laptop, have a gin and tonic 

[DisturbedPervert]

As oil runs out, you won't even have to worry about adding lanes.

[Duque de Bragança]

Well, if you are on a train you can read a book, play a game on your laptop, have a gin and tonic 

Btw, given the high densities of the UK and relative small size, a high-speed network would work wonders there. Yet, nothing but a link to Europe by the Tunnel. Why ? Maggie's legacy?

[stjaba]

(I have driven on I4 and was in a horrendous traffic jam, so if that is common, maybe that is a reason)

There is bad traffic on I-4, but mostly limited to between Lakeland and Tampa during rush hour and in the Orlando metro area during rush hour. Hardly anyone commutes from Tampa to Orlando or vice versa on a daily basis. Theoritically, having a train option might create an incentive for people to commute between Tampa and Orlando, but I have my doubts. The proposed train would stop in Lakeland, so Lakeland commuters could very use it in theory to commute. But since Tampa is very decentralized, taking the train would probably be more of a hassle for most people. Like you mentioned, taking a car is going to be easier 95% of the time.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Well, if you are on a train you can read a book, play a game on your laptop, have a gin and tonic 

Btw, given the high densities of the UK and relative small size, a high-speed network would work wonders there. Yet, nothing but a link to Europe by the Tunnel. Why ? Maggie's legacy?

Probably best not to get me started on that. I would be delighted to see the construction of such a network. But, for some reason, there seems little chance of it happening 

[DGuller]

I wonder if someone could design a practical garage rail car, that would be the best of both worlds.

[The Larch]

Well, if you are on a train you can read a book, play a game on your laptop, have a gin and tonic 

Btw, given the high densities of the UK and relative small size, a high-speed network would work wonders there. Yet, nothing but a link to Europe by the Tunnel. Why ? Maggie's legacy?

Probably best not to get me started on that. I would be delighted to see the construction of such a network. But, for some reason, there seems little chance of it happening 

Given Britain's crazy pricing, I guess a single ticket would cost like hundreds of pounds, or something.