48% Support 'Literally Anyone' But Brown

[Sheilbh]

God, the poor man:

Give us any leader but Gordon Brown, say voters


The poll is devastating about Mr Brown's position as the three-week party conference season starts this weekend
Peter Riddell and Philip Webster

Almost half of voters think that anyone would do a better job than Gordon Brown as Labour leader.

Nine months at most from a general election, a Populus poll for The Times suggests that 48 per cent of voters believe that "literally anyone" from Labour's ranks could do better, without naming alternatives. Only a third say that Mr Brown is the best leader available to Labour.

The stark conclusion, coming as Mr Brown prepares to address the TUC today in one of his most important speeches, confirms that he has a mountain to climb to win a fourth term for Labour next spring. While there is no evidence of any renewed attempt to remove the Prime Minister, 61 per cent see him as a liability to Labour compared with 34 per cent who consider him an asset.

The latest poll, conducted over the weekend, puts Labour on 27 per cent, up 1 point on mid-July. The Conservatives are up 3 points at 41 per cent and the Liberal Democrats down 2 points at 18 per cent.

No party has ever recovered from being so far behind in the polls at this stage of a Parliament to win the subsequent general election. Comparisons with previous elections all show that the governing party was in a stronger position than Labour is now and still lost badly — even though the opposition party usually lost support in the final months before the election.

The Tories are, however, doing less well than Labour in opposition in 1996 (on 50 per cent) or the Tories in 1978 (48 per cent).

Opinion has hardened among voters that David Cameron will win an overall Commons majority, now expected by 57 per cent, up 6 points on mid-July. The number thinking that there will be a hung Parliament has fallen by 5 points to 20 per cent. Some 17 per cent (up 2 points) think that Labour will win an overall majority.

The sole comfort for Mr Brown is the lack of agreement on a successor. While nearly two thirds (65 per cent) believe that others would make a better leader than Mr Brown, only 17 per cent can suggest other Labour politicians. When asked to name someone, without names being prompted, 43 per cent say that they don't know.

Of those who do cite alternatives, 13 per cent name David Miliband, 7 per cent say Harriet Harman, and 6 per cent name Jack Straw or Alan Johnson. Among Labour voters, Mr Miliband is equal first with Ms Harman on 12 per cent, followed by Mr Straw on 11 per cent and Lord Mandelson on 10 per cent.

In spite of the apparently desperate position, the Cabinet was reported to have been in a determined mood yesterday as it agreed on a new campaign that will warn voters the Conservatives would "wreck the recovery".

Mr Brown will use the word "cuts" in his speech today, recognising that his refusal to do so until now has begun to cloud what he regards as a positive argument for Labour policy. It is thought he will say Labour's determination to protect frontline services could mean cuts in less vital services.

George Osborne, the Shadow Chancellor, will promise today to cut the deficit faster than Labour.

Apparently there are rumours of a few plots.  Now Lord Mandelson's winning argument (we don't want an election!) won't work because we'll be getting an election in May 2010 anyway.

[Agelastus]

God, the poor man:

Offhand, I can think of a couple of Labour party members who would make worse PMs; Mandelson, for example, who is clearly laying the groundwork for his return as an MP (I am assuming Languishites must have noted the little reform that was mooted to allow life peers to resign their title...)

I admit, it is hard to imagine a more catastrophic PM for Britain than Gordon "I saved the world!" Brown, but it is possible.

[Razgovory]

What did this guy to make himself so unpopular?

[Jos Theelen]

Doesn't this mean that 52% disapproves literally anyone but Brown?

[Agelastus]

What did this guy to make himself so unpopular?

Well, apart from his naturally smarmy personality one could go on for pages and pages about his career as our worst ever chancellor - the almost universal vandalism committed on people's pensions, the stupid and ill thought out tax credits system (my mother, as an accountant, gets very worked up about this one), his habit of announcing "good news" four times, his taking credit for schemes that were already in place etc. etc.

Then there's the complete fumble he made as prime minister in regard to Northern Rock, the way he seems to be trying to bankrupt the country as fast as possible, the fact that he actually seems to believe that he "saved the world" etc. etc.

[Agelastus]

Hey...Gordon Brown has just said he will cut "unneccessary spending"!!!!

This is - 

(a) His first admission of what everybody with half a brain has seen for six months or more, that spending will have to be cut.

(b) An open invitation to question just what this unneccessary spending is, given he has been chancellor or PM for the last 12 years.

God, what a moron he is...

[Sheilbh]

What did this guy to make himself so unpopular?

I think it's, alas, his personality.  Which is very sad.


There are reports that he's taking pretty strong anti-depressants, at the minute there's just been a few hints in the press because I don't think anyone's sure what to say or do about it.  But that could get nasty.  I think there could be something to the rumours that he's planning to stand down due to 'failing eyesight'.

[Neil]

I'd support anyone but Brown, so long as the 'anyone' isn't Labour.  Or a Liberal Democrat.

[Legbiter]

 

[Mr.Penguin]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzlOBn029b8&feature=related

This sketch from 2007, does suggest that Gordon Brown has been facing an up hill battle right from the start...

[Agelastus]

What did this guy to make himself so unpopular?

I think it's, alas, his personality.  Which is very sad.

Actually, on reflection, it is more his inability to make difficult decisions. Everyone knows cuts are coming, but the uncertainty over what and where will be cut is inhibiting spending and investment in this country...which is thus impeding our economic recovery. Effectively, it is the dithering over Northern Rock on an even larger canvas.

[MadImmortalMan]

Yeah, he never really was popular from the beginning is the impression I get. The odd quirk of a parliamentary system is that guys like Brown who would likely not be able to get elected on their own can sometimes become head of government on the heels of someone else leaving. Was Major like this too? I bet he was.

[Agelastus]

To be fair to Major, he actually won a general election in 1992.

[Ah, what a night, I went from the verge of despair to almost hysterical joy...from sleep deprivation probably... ]

[The Minsky Moment]

and Lord Mandelson on 10 per cent

[Sheilbh]

Yeah, he never really was popular from the beginning is the impression I get.

This isn't totally fair.  He was always seen as the steady, intellectual figure behind the flash Blairism.  During the decade of Brown-Blair briefings Brown's reputation was damaged.  He got rid of all potential opponents and made a lot of enemies.  He also briefed against Blair and was behind the Parliamentary coup that forced Blair to announce his retirement date.  Blair's briefings also hugely damaged Brown's reputation, especially the ur-smear of New Labour, that Brown has 'psychological flaws'.

But much of that for those 10 years happened behind the scenes.  We just got the reports of anonymous briefings by their respective allies and spin doctors.  I think one of the problems Brown has had since he became Prime Minister.  All of those rumours and negative briefings (by him and against him) that had only been noticed by the Labour Party while he was a generally popular and admired Chancellor came back against him.

So his ability to get rid of opponents (in a more popular leader, a sign of necessary, even political ruthlessness a la Supermac) was perceived as brutal dirty politics, especially when his office were found to be turning it on the Tories (and George Osbourne's wife - again allegations of mental health problems, a New Labour preoccupation).  Brown's intellectualism ('neo-endogenous classical growth'...) which had done so well for him as Chancellor was made as part of the case that he was out of touch.  When he made comments that were about the X Factor he came across as trying too hard, because of that reputation.  What, in Blair, prompted eye-rolling at the smarmy bastard for some reason produced disgust aimed at when he did it.

When he first became PM he had a hugely successful summer.  Cameron was seen as fannying about in Rwanda, showing the world he cared, while floods hit his constituency.  Brown on the other hand had a very good minor natural disaster, went on holiday in the UK, saw terrorists arrested and an outbreak of foot and mouth contained.  It all played into his spin, 'not flash, just Gordon'.  Then he let speculation about an early election build for too long and established a reputation for being a ditherer.  Treasury watchers and spurned Labour enemies got stories out that showed how he couldn't make a decision in the Treasury either.  He did okay out of the recession hitting - which I think was actually his finest moment - but then his popularity collapsed.  I mean he once had an average overall +20 approval rating, right now it's around -45 (70%, currently, disapprove of the job he's doing).

According to opinion polls Brown is now less popular than Chamberlain was after the Norway invasion.

I don't know what it is about Brown.  He's someone who I think should make a great PM (and I think he's aware of this) but hasn't.  Had he never got to Number 10 he'd be on most people's lists of best PMs we never had.  I think it's just awfully sad really.  The real tragedy unlike Blair, or MacMillan, or Major I don't think Brown really has a hinterland.  I think for him politics is everything, like Thatcher.  Unlike Thatcher he's been a failure and has had only 2 and a half years in office.  I think it's got to be devastating to achieve your life's goal and then fail at it, it would probably be even worse than never winning. 

The odd quirk of a parliamentary system is that guys like Brown who would likely not be able to get elected on their own can sometimes become head of government on the heels of someone else leaving.

It depends on timing.  Until Tony Blair became leader, Brown was considered very much the party's star and future leader.  Similarly MacMillan helped move Alec Douglas-Home into Number 10 to prevent the infinitely more talented Rab Butler from taking office.

Was Major like this too? I bet he was.

Major had it easier.  He had two or three years of popularity.  He won an election, indeed in terms of the popular vote he's our most popular PM.  Now he's a very respectable ex-PM.  He makes the occasional political foray but spends the rest of his time working on a Cricket Board I think