Part Two: Russia takes on Ukraine (BB you will love this!)

[Neil]

I think even the Red Chinese learned to be quiet during Taiwanese elections.  This can not possible be helpful for Medvedev.

Isn't the Ukrainian government pretty unpopular though?  I thought it had been a big disappointment after the Orange revolution.  I was under the impression it was riven by internal arguments and as corrupt as the previous government.

Just because the current government isn't popular is no reason for the people to want to subject themselves to genocide.

[Sheilbh]

Yes, it's extremely unpopular.  I don't think Russian interference is going to hurt them, though.

I don't know.  Does the government's popularity increase when Russia turns off the gas in winter? 

Also just given Ukraine's place in the world and its dependence on Russian gas shouldn't their government always make an effort not to annoy Russia too much?  I think it would be foolhardy of, say, Mongolia to not treat Russia and China with deference.  Or Nepal to be delicate when dealing with the Chinese or the Indians.

[Neil]

Yes, it's extremely unpopular.  I don't think Russian interference is going to hurt them, though.

I don't know.  Does the government's popularity increase when Russia turns off the gas in winter? 

Also just given Ukraine's place in the world and its dependence on Russian gas shouldn't their government always make an effort not to annoy Russia too much?  I think it would be foolhardy of, say, Mongolia to not treat Russia and China with deference.  Or Nepal to be delicate when dealing with the Chinese or the Indians.

Emotion is a powerful force.  Very few countries do things out of straight up self-interest.

[DGuller]

I don't know.  Does the government's popularity increase when Russia turns off the gas in winter? 

It sure brings people together.

[Sheilbh]

Emotion is a powerful force.  Very few countries do things out of straight up self-interest.

Very true.

[Barrister]

Yes, it's extremely unpopular.  I don't think Russian interference is going to hurt them, though.

I don't know.  Does the government's popularity increase when Russia turns off the gas in winter? 

Also just given Ukraine's place in the world and its dependence on Russian gas shouldn't their government always make an effort not to annoy Russia too much?  I think it would be foolhardy of, say, Mongolia to not treat Russia and China with deference.  Or Nepal to be delicate when dealing with the Chinese or the Indians.

But this doesn't sound like Ukraine is needlessly picking fights with Russia, it's more that Russia expects total subservience from Ukraine.   

[Sheilbh]

But this doesn't sound like Ukraine is needlessly picking fights with Russia, it's more that Russia expects total subservience from Ukraine.   

I'm not sure total subservience is fair, but yeah.

[HVC]

Yes, it's extremely unpopular.  I don't think Russian interference is going to hurt them, though.

I don't know.  Does the government's popularity increase when Russia turns off the gas in winter? 

Also just given Ukraine's place in the world and its dependence on Russian gas shouldn't their government always make an effort not to annoy Russia too much?  I think it would be foolhardy of, say, Mongolia to not treat Russia and China with deference.  Or Nepal to be delicate when dealing with the Chinese or the Indians.

Weak European countries always expect there more powerful neighburs to protect them from their enemies. They don't seem to grasp that it never works.

[Neil]

Yes, it's extremely unpopular.  I don't think Russian interference is going to hurt them, though.

I don't know.  Does the government's popularity increase when Russia turns off the gas in winter? 

Also just given Ukraine's place in the world and its dependence on Russian gas shouldn't their government always make an effort not to annoy Russia too much?  I think it would be foolhardy of, say, Mongolia to not treat Russia and China with deference.  Or Nepal to be delicate when dealing with the Chinese or the Indians.

Weak European countries always expect there more powerful neighburs to protect them from their enemies. They don't seem to grasp that it never works.

The Ukraine is probably militarily more powerful than any European country except for France and the UK.  If its neighbour wasn't brutal, hypernationalist, militaristic Russia, they'd be pretty safe.

I bet you the Ukraine regrets giving The Bomb back to Russia when the USSR broke up.

[KRonn]

Ukraine needs to join NATO as soon as possible, get under the protective umbrella. Then maybe Poland, Romania, Baltic States and others of the former Eastern Block could go to Ukraine's aid, get some pay back on the Russkies! Then again, Russia should join NATO also; that'd be interesting. 

[Martinus]

I don't know.  Does the government's popularity increase when Russia turns off the gas in winter? 

Well I don't know but as far as I am aware most people do not like being bullied by foreign powers.

[Ed Anger]

Ukraine needs to join NATO as soon as possible, get under the protective umbrella. Then maybe Poland, Romania, Baltic States and others of the former Eastern Block could go to Ukraine's aid, get some pay back on the Russkies! Then again, Russia should join NATO also; that'd be interesting.

No American blood for Eastern Europeans.

[Martinus]

Yes, it's extremely unpopular.  I don't think Russian interference is going to hurt them, though.

I don't know.  Does the government's popularity increase when Russia turns off the gas in winter? 

Also just given Ukraine's place in the world and its dependence on Russian gas shouldn't their government always make an effort not to annoy Russia too much?  I think it would be foolhardy of, say, Mongolia to not treat Russia and China with deference.  Or Nepal to be delicate when dealing with the Chinese or the Indians.

But this doesn't sound like Ukraine is needlessly picking fights with Russia, it's more that Russia expects total subservience from Ukraine.   

That's true.

That being said, it is often difficult for Westerners to understand the Central-Eastern Europe politics, because it is so deeply entrenched in history.

I think Ukraine's position is a bit precarious, though, if it tries to delve too much into "historical politics". This is because their anti-Russian history current is also anti-Polish and at least on its face pro-nazi, so they are not going to make any friends that way in Europe.

[Neil]

Ukraine needs to join NATO as soon as possible, get under the protective umbrella. Then maybe Poland, Romania, Baltic States and others of the former Eastern Block could go to Ukraine's aid, get some pay back on the Russkies! Then again, Russia should join NATO also; that'd be interesting.

No American blood for Eastern Europeans.

This is a good point.  While large parts of Eastern Europe are racially Russian (Poland, for example), the Ukraine has a huge community of Russian speakers that doesn't suffer any legal disadvantage.  At least the Balts have the good sense to make the Russians second-class citizens.

By admitting the Ukraine, we're putting allowing our enemies into the fold.

[Neil]

I think Ukraine's position is a bit precarious, though, if it tries to delve too much into "historical politics". This is because their anti-Russian history current is also anti-Polish and at least on its face pro-nazi, so they are not going to make any friends that way in Europe.

Maybe, but Europe doesn't really matter.  They can't provide anything for the Ukraine.  What they need is a bilateral security agreement with the US.