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Quick Quagmire Poll (Iran, Mar 26 - 31)

Started by Jacob, March 26, 2026, 09:30:11 PM

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Will Trump put boots on the ground in Iranian territory in the next three months?

No. The troop movement is purely posturing. He will not use ground troops in Iranian territory.
2 (7.4%)
Yes, but only special forces quick strikes before withdrawing and similar. No ground will be held.
7 (25.9%)
Yes, he will take and hold Iranian territory with limited objectives. He'll stick to those objectives and not be drawn further in.
4 (14.8%)
Yes. He'll strike with a limited force and limited objectives, but one thing will lead to another and the American commitment will continue to grow into large, messy deployment.
12 (44.4%)
Yes, but he'll somehow rustle up the forces for a major deployment to take and hold ground at a large scale.
1 (3.7%)
No, because the conflict will come to an end before such a scenario becomes necessary.
1 (3.7%)

Total Members Voted: 27

Voting closes: March 31, 2026, 09:30:11 PM

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The Minsky Moment

#15
Today at 12:41:23 PM
It's really hard to assess because I have so little experience with writing scenario lines for TV shows, which appears to be the best way to predict administration actions.

So will do my best . . . Sending that number of Marines doesn't send spec force only vibes.  That suggests either 1 or 4. Either they are being sent as a precaution to respond against an unexpected move, or they are being tasked to grab one or more islands.  If they invade it can't be limited because the Iranians get a vote.

Common sense says 1.

Therefore I pick 4.
We have, accordingly, always had plenty of excellent lawyers, though we often had to do without even tolerable administrators, and seen destined to endure the inconvenience of hereafter doing without any constructive statesmen at all.
--Woodrow Wilson
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