(Great Power) War in Our Time?

[Jacob]

By war, I mean something more than one or two assets being destroyed followed by a tense stand-off and continued Cold War; nor do I mean intense proxy wars, including ones where the military of one great power is fighting one or more third countries supported by a great power.

By great power I mean the US, China, Russia (grudgingly), and the EU (if the EU ends up acting coherently, but not if it lets itself be picked off piecemeal). I suppose I'd also include other coalitions that could, theoretically, go toe-to-toe with a great power at least for a bit (so, say if Japan, South Korea, and other Pacific allies supported Taiwan versus China or something like that).

I guess another lens to apply is if the war triggers a massive breakdown in the world's economic and political order.

I'm curious what you think are the likely flashpoints for such a conflict, and how they'd play out. How likely is it that they could be kept someone limited, and how likely is it the conflict would escalate to total war? I guess the leading contenders at the moment are Taiwan, Greenland, the Baltics, and Ukraine.

Also feel free to quibble with the definitions.

If such a war does start, we can return to the thread and see who was the most prescient. At least as long as we have internet access.

[Zoupa]

I voted 50-50. I have no idea really.

I could see China turning on russia eventually.

I could see the EU vs russia if they try shit in the Baltics.

I don't think the US will go for Greenland militarily.

I don't think the US or anyone else would intervene militarily if China went for Taiwan.

[Sheilbh]

I think fairly low risk. I think far, far less chance of it than during the Cold War or pre-WW1.

I think the global situation is looser and more flexible than that. I actually think the risk has declined since Trump took office and came to power. I think there was far more chance of a Cold War or Guns of August style escalation with no off-path under Biden - Adam Tooze has written about his fear that the US was approaching a point of locking in conflcit with China at one point (I can't remember when exactly) and speaking to senior people in the Administration  precisely about that "Guns of August" risk.

I can't really see Russia v China any time soon. Honestly the comparison that keeps coming to my mind there is the British Empire and the Americans.

I don't think the EU is a great power and I don't think it'll become one. I hope I'm proven wrong but I see no evidence that at this point - a diverse multi-state Europe is not going to suddenly become a homogenous, effective superstate that can compete with Russia, China or the US (caveat: Europe advances through crisis - counter to that: that's fine but rearmament has a run-in time). I'd note that the main focus in Brussels at the minute is, in fact, that France and Germany are increasingly on opposite sides on the big decisions - I'm not sure that relationship is still the engine, but it is important and it's been dysfunctional for at least a decade (I'd argue since the crash and Eurozone crisis).

I don't think the US is likely to go to war with Russia or China over any of the areas Russia or China are likely to target. Not under the current administratio and I think Biden was a last gasp of that America. I think maybe the one to watch is the Middle East - especially if there is a revolution in Iran.

[Bauer]

I think it's a very low but non zero risk.

But old school power spheres influence seem to be making a comeback.

[Tonitrus]

I voted 50-50. I have no idea really.

1. I could see China turning on russia eventually.

2. I could see the EU vs russia if they try shit in the Baltics.

3. don't think the US will go for Greenland militarily.

4. I don't think the US or anyone else would intervene militarily if China went for Taiwan.

1. Not as long as Russia's nuclear force remains credible (or Russia is in a position to use it).  A Russia/EU war might see limited nuclear use, but mostly by Russia attempting to intimidate/cow EU nations into surrender or inaction...but I don't think Russia would see even a losing conventional war with the EU as it is now as a real test of national survival.  A war where China makes a grab at mass amounts of Russian territory would scare them into far more desperate action.

2.  Too many variables too predict anything clearly...but I don't think anything will involve a mass invasion, more likely salami tactics to try and grab what they think they can get away with.  That may be the entire Baltics...but I am not sure they would be to chew that big of a morsel all at once.

3. The "at last this will make the sane GOP members rebel" may be spent a spent phrase at this point, but such action might actually make the worms that is Congress turn.

4.  Depends on how they do it.  If China is confident no one will intervene, and focuses on battering Taiwan only...good chance they get away with it.  After all, everybody "legally" recognizes Taiwan as part of China.  If China is not so confident and batters Okinawa or other US bases/forces at the same time, in order to try and neuter US intervention...well, we'll see if the Pearl Harbor spirit still has any play.

[Zoupa]

I think fairly low risk. I think far, far less chance of it than during the Cold War or pre-WW1.

I think the global situation is looser and more flexible than that. I actually think the risk has declined since Trump took office and came to power. I think there was far more chance of a Cold War or Guns of August style escalation with no off-path under Biden - Adam Tooze has written about his fear that the US was approaching a point of locking in conflcit with China at one point (I can't remember when exactly) and speaking to senior people in the Administration  precisely about that "Guns of August" risk.

I can't really see Russia v China any time soon. Honestly the comparison that keeps coming to my mind there is the British Empire and the Americans.

I don't think the EU is a great power and I don't think it'll become one. I hope I'm proven wrong but I see no evidence that at this point - a diverse multi-state Europe is not going to suddenly become a homogenous, effective superstate that can compete with Russia, China or the US (caveat: Europe advances through crisis - counter to that: that's fine but rearmament has a run-in time). I'd note that the main focus in Brussels at the minute is, in fact, that France and Germany are increasingly on opposite sides on the big decisions - I'm not sure that relationship is still the engine, but it is important and it's been dysfunctional for at least a decade (I'd argue since the crash and Eurozone crisis).

I don't think the US is likely to go to war with Russia or China over any of the areas Russia or China are likely to target. Not under the current administratio and I think Biden was a last gasp of that America. I think maybe the one to watch is the Middle East - especially if there is a revolution in Iran.

It's pretty amazing that I think I disagree with all of your takes in this post 

Still love ya.