(Great Power) War in Our Time?

[Tonitrus]

I guess it depends on if you really consider Russia a Great Power.

They have a sizable nuclear arsenal.  But I suppose that makes one more of Great Danger than a Great Power. 

If a criteria is the ability to project power significantly outside their own country...they're having a hard time.  I wouldn't really count things like shadow fleets smuggling oil and dragging anchors, or other means of widespread sabotage and subterfuge down under shoddy covers.

In terms of economy...dunno.  I think the remarks like "their economy is smaller than Spain!" are usually mostly petty cherrypicking don't at all represent the dangers/dynamics involved.  I expect their oil/natural resource impact is big.  Their manufacturing only seems important internally...almost one might say we have become, in favor of China, on the world stage.

[mongers]

I voted the most pessimistic option for a couple of reasons.  One reason is that I think wars are like forest fires:  the longer you go without one, the more likely things are to ignite, and once they do, everything that can ignite does ignite at once.  Another reason for pessimism is that erratic nature of the US for the foreseeable future makes miscalculations more likely in the geopolitical game of poker.

This presumes someone or anyone of some significance is trying to calculate Anything.   

[DGuller]

I voted the most pessimistic option for a couple of reasons.  One reason is that I think wars are like forest fires:  the longer you go without one, the more likely things are to ignite, and once they do, everything that can ignite does ignite at once.  Another reason for pessimism is that erratic nature of the US for the foreseeable future makes miscalculations more likely in the geopolitical game of poker.

This presumes someone or anyone of some significance is trying to calculate Anything.   

It doesn't have to be the US that miscalculates, it could be another great power with regard to how the US would respond.

[mongers]

I voted the most pessimistic option for a couple of reasons.  One reason is that I think wars are like forest fires:  the longer you go without one, the more likely things are to ignite, and once they do, everything that can ignite does ignite at once.  Another reason for pessimism is that erratic nature of the US for the foreseeable future makes miscalculations more likely in the geopolitical game of poker.

This presumes someone or anyone of some significance is trying to calculate Anything. 

It doesn't have to be the US that miscalculates, it could be another great power with regard to how the US would respond.

And how do they calculate the incalcuable?

Which is supporting your elaborated point.