US - Greenland Crisis Thread

[PJL]

Yeah, I'm guessing the Putin faction inside the White House outmanoeuvred the Israel faction when it comes to Iran.

Yeah, with Putin being invited to the Gaza Peace board (which the Israelis are already unhappy about), looks like we're seeing a major realignment taking place.

[Legbiter]

The gun is already loaded on Greenland, and forces from Alaska supposedly heading for Minnesota are ready to go. Once the US Navy icebreaker leaves the East Coast, then the trigger will have been pulled. There doesn't seem to be any urgency regarding Iran at the moment.

Invading Greenland at this point is not a sugar rush op like Venezuela. The airport is no go, the Nuuk harbor site unless you're a shrimp fisherman is atrocious. And the garrison will have Norwegian anti-ship missiles and advanced warning from either the Brits or French (probably both).

This is very bad TV for Trump.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Wouldn't it be funny if the Germans or so kidnap the orange man from Davos and bring him to court...

Fantasy.

Obviously.

[Jacob]

Invading Greenland at this point is not a sugar rush op like Venezuela. The airport is no go, the Nuuk harbor site unless you're a shrimp fisherman is atrocious. And the garrison will have Norwegian anti-ship missiles and advanced warning from either the Brits or French (probably both).

This is very bad TV for Trump.

The question (well one of many, obviously) is who is going to shoot at whom first?

Like say a US naval task force is en route to Greenland, will they open fire on European vessels they encounter?

Conversely, imagine the decision matrix for the commander of the French, Danish, or British naval vessel making the decision to fire (or not) on US forces before they're fired upon themselves.

[Jacob]

Invading Greenland at this point is not a sugar rush op like Venezuela. The airport is no go, the Nuuk harbor site unless you're a shrimp fisherman is atrocious. And the garrison will have Norwegian anti-ship missiles and advanced warning from either the Brits or French (probably both).

This is very bad TV for Trump.

I agree it's very bad TV for Trump, but with the "this is your fault for not giving me a peace prize! Waaaaah!" letter, it seems like Trump is beyond caring about TV to assuage his unloved little boy lashing out psyche.

[Legbiter]

The question (well one of many, obviously) is who is going to shoot at whom first?

Like say a US naval task force is en route to Greenland, will they open fire on European vessels they encounter?

Conversely, imagine the decision matrix for the commander of the French, Danish, or British naval vessel making the decision to fire (or not) on US forces before they're fired upon themselves.

Venezuela was preceded by months of hostile rhetoric and the stationing of a carrier battlegroup plus strikes on boats in the Carribean. Since Nuuk airport is out of play the US would have to do something similar. At which point NATO is long dead, Mark Rutte is an Uber driver and the Fenno-Scandic nuclear weapons program is not just taking place in the Brains garage. 

[Jacob]

Venezuela was preceded by months of hostile rhetoric and the stationing of a carrier battlegroup plus strikes on boats in the Carribean. Since Nuuk airport is out of play the US would have to do something similar. At which point NATO is long dead, Mark Rutte is an Uber driver and the Fenno-Scandic nuclear weapons program is not just taking place in the Brains garage.

I like to think you're correct, but my level of confidence is not high.

[Legbiter]

I like to think you're correct, but my level of confidence is not high.

Same, but reinforcing Greenland with troops really upset the Americans because they'd been preparing this showy Friday operation. I'll rest easier if the EU retaliates hard with targeted sanctions on his MAGA supporters, social media networks and major propagandists. The US wants to divide the West, pick us off one by one.

[Duque de Bragança]

Invading Greenland at this point is not a sugar rush op like Venezuela. The airport is no go, the Nuuk harbor site unless you're a shrimp fisherman is atrocious. And the garrison will have Norwegian anti-ship missiles and advanced warning from either the Brits or French (probably both).

This is very bad TV for Trump.

The question (well one of many, obviously) is who is going to shoot at whom first?

Like say a US naval task force is en route to Greenland, will they open fire on European vessels they encounter?

Conversely, imagine the decision matrix for the commander of the French, Danish, or British naval vessel making the decision to fire (or not) on US forces before they're fired upon themselves.

Disable a or the critical vessel for Greenland, say, the icebreaker? How? 

[The Minsky Moment]

The heirs to Basil II is the best description. The Empire was extremely powerful and had no real threats and they fixed that.

Basil II had the good fortune of an unusually favorable strategic environment that was never going to last long-term.  His successors didn't cover themselves in glory but they weren't mental incompetents like Trump. 

[The Minsky Moment]

King John is an example of a ruler who inherited a very powerful position and squandered it all by alienating allies and bafflingly poor strategic decisions.   

[Zanza]

Who would have thought that Obama winning that prize and making a few jokes would eventually cause the destruction of NATO and the end of Pax Americana. Truly the Vienna art school rejection of our times.

[crazy canuck]

Who would have thought that Obama winning that prize and making a few jokes would eventually cause the destruction of NATO and the end of Pax Americana. Truly the Vienna art school rejection of our times.

Yep

[Norgy]

This Gaza Peace Board, it sounds a lot like a pyramid scheme. One billion dollars for a seat? 

Well, a permanent one.

[Sheilbh]

Same, but reinforcing Greenland with troops really upset the Americans because they'd been preparing this showy Friday operation. I'll rest easier if the EU retaliates hard with targeted sanctions on his MAGA supporters, social media networks and major propagandists. The US wants to divide the West, pick us off one by one.

Two points that I wonder about.

It's been pointed out by a lot of people that the European vulnerability is perhaps less sanctions (though that will disproportionately hit Germany who have just returned to growth for the first time after two years of a shrinking economy) than energy. Europe largely replaced Russian pipe gas with American LNG. I've mentioned before but I'm really not sure Europe can supply its energy needs if it's cut off from Russia and the US. At this point my understanding is that gas supples are quite low because Europe topped up less than it has in recent years and it's been a relatively cold winter.

The other point is that as with so much all of this is, or should be, the responsibility of Congress if they were willing to assert their power. Obviously this Congress won't because they're supine cowards. But all of this is profoundly unpopular. If the Democrats win the mid-terms the focus needs to be on systematically re-asserting the power (and prestige) of Congress and not just reverting to deference and an imperial presidency.