US - Greenland Crisis Thread

[celedhring]

Yes I agree that Europe must rearm, and quickly. I think where you and I disagree is that I still think that Europe can.

I think we're less further apart than that then

I also think Europe can. But I don't think it is yet in any meaningful way (with Poland as an honourable exception). And I think basically anything that isn't contributing to rearmament is just noises off and, at this point, just further highlights the gap between what we're saying and what we aspire to and what we're actually doing.

I spoke with somebody that works in a Spanish defence company, and he was pretty bullish about the rearming thing, although the issue was lack of existing industrial capability and the time it will take to build it - but the will for now seems to be there. His literal words were "there's more money than things we can spend it on".

[Sheilbh]

Yeah I should say I have family who work in defence and their companies are all doing very well. The big complaint European defence manufacturers have made is not necessarily just cash (that's the complaint of the militaries) but long term contracts.

As you say the issue is lack of capability and capacity (which is I think we need to rebuild our industry too). But building that up is enormously expensive and will take time. Which is the complaint from industry: there is more money, but there is a willingness to commit to it over a multi-year period. At the minute there is money being spent (not enough) but it's from existing capacity - and Europe's defence industry is a big exporter (five of the top ten countries in terms of arms exports are in Europe).

It's why I keep banging on about Poland as a really good example because they have made those commitments - and not only are spending the money but making sure that there are factories, in Poland, being built to deliver their future orders. It's not just buying more stuff from existing industry but trying to make sure Poland has its own defence industry (they're also diversifying orders so they're getting factories from American, British, French, Korean firms).

The other bit I'd add is about making sure that more of the supply chain for those industries is domestic.

[Zanza]

European Parliament has now frozen further deliberation of the lopsided trade deal agreed with Trump last year. I think they should just trashcan it completely.

[Jacob]

Danish pension fund to divest of its ~US$100M holding of US treasuries:

"The decision is rooted in the poor U.S. government finances, ⁠which make us think that we ‍need to make an effort to find an ‌alternative ‌way of conducting our liquidity and risk management," Investment Director Anders Schelde said in a written statement.

"Thus, it is not ⁠directly related ⁠to the ongoing rift between the U.S. and Europe, but of course that didn't make it more ‍difficult to take the decision," he added.

https://www.reuters.com/business/danish-pension-fund-divest-its-us-treasuries-2026-01-20/

[Duque de Bragança]

Danish pension fund to divest of its ~US$100M holding of US treasuries:

"The decision is rooted in the poor U.S. government finances, ⁠which make us think that we ‍need to make an effort to find an ‌alternative ‌way of conducting our liquidity and risk management," Investment Director Anders Schelde said in a written statement.

"Thus, it is not ⁠directly related ⁠to the ongoing rift between the U.S. and Europe, but of course that didn't make it more ‍difficult to take the decision," he added.

https://www.reuters.com/business/danish-pension-fund-divest-its-us-treasuries-2026-01-20/

Nice litotes. 

[Crazy_Ivan80]

On Hegseth and Bessent and the messaging...

I've always resisted the whole "I'm going to diagnose Trump psychologically, he's a narcissist" thing, but the narcissism model does explain some parts of Trumps behaviour in a way that I think may have utility.

This is from - I believe - Vlad Vexler (I got it via Anders Puck Nielsen). Essentially the model goes that a narcissist like Trump divides people into two groups.

• People he admire and whose respect and admiration he craves. He gets his "narcissist supply" from their respect. These are people he consider strong - so Putin, Kim, and others like them.
• People he considers weak, so victims or future victims. Trump (and thus his regime) gets his "narcissist supply" from being cruel to them, because they cannot do anything back to him.

Europe's problem - vis a vis Trump - is that he puts them in the second category: as weaklings to be bullied. Attempting to compromise or find common ground or talk things out only compounds the problem.

Anders Puch Nielsen suggests that Europe's best approach with Trump is to demonstrate strength. His proposal is to decisively beat Russia in Ukraine (without American support, presumably), which I think is a good idea.

It was indeed Vexler, saw that video yesterday.

edit: it's not in the video I thought it was, yet I remember seeing it. Bizarre. He did say more or less the same a few days ago (in this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvU3-Cw3YIk) where he mentioned having talked about it a while back.
So odd memory shenanigans, but working out though.

[grumbler]

This is the Ander Puck Nielsen on the Greenland Crisis video Crazy Ivan is referring to.

[PJL]

Just watched the last bit of the video, and I agree with his analysis that Europe needs to escalate to descalate to placate/win over Trump. It is the only thing that works with bullies like him.

[crazy canuck]

Yes I agree that Europe must rearm, and quickly. I think where you and I disagree is that I still think that Europe can.

I think we're less further apart than that then

I also think Europe can. But I don't think it is yet in any meaningful way (with Poland as an honourable exception). And I think basically anything that isn't contributing to rearmament is just noises off and, at this point, just further highlights the gap between what we're saying and what we aspire to and what we're actually doing.

I spoke with somebody that works in a Spanish defence company, and he was pretty bullish about the rearming thing, although the issue was lack of existing industrial capability and the time it will take to build it - but the will for now seems to be there. His literal words were "there's more money than things we can spend it on".

Yeah, that is also the Canadian problem - the Federal government is moving fast but building up industrial capacity takes time. 

Now that the US has lost its best customers, I wonder if they will start selling to countries who should not have access to those arms, further destabilizing the world.

[OttoVonBismarck]

While my sympathies lie with Europe on the Greenland issue, the reality is Europe is viewed by Trump as weak because Europe is weak. It is weak because it isn't a country, and most of its people don't actually care about the well being of Europe as a whole, only about their own country--if even that.

To juxtapose--prior to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, FDR, despite steadily trying to build support, had failed to convince even 40% of the public that participation in WW2 was to the country's benefit.

One day after Pearl Harbor over 90% of America supported the war, and only a single pacifist congresswoman voted against the declarations of war that followed.

If someone were to attack say, Greece, is there any chance at all someone in Spain or Ireland will care? Maybe enough to Tweet about it. Enough to commit their sons to war over it? Nope. Not a chance.

Americans were willing to send their sons to fight and die because an island 5,000 miles away, that had an American flag on it, got bombed. Europe has nothing like that, and is unlikely to ever have it.

[crazy canuck]

I think you are misreading what would happen if Greenland is invaded.  The rest of the world is acutely aware of what the United States has become.

[OttoVonBismarck]

There's maybe 3 countries in Europe I think have the backbone and the will to actually defend themselves from invasion (Poland, France, Britain), I'm not sure any of those three have the backbone to defend another European country from invasion.

I'm pretty sure a country like Spain or Ireland wouldn't even defend its own country if it were attacked.

[crazy canuck]

Why then do you think they have forces already stationed outside their countries to defend against aggression in the Baltic states, and why are they now deploying to Greenland?

[Tamas]

On Hegseth and Bessent and the messaging...

I've always resisted the whole "I'm going to diagnose Trump psychologically, he's a narcissist" thing, but the narcissism model does explain some parts of Trumps behaviour in a way that I think may have utility.

This is from - I believe - Vlad Vexler (I got it via Anders Puck Nielsen). Essentially the model goes that a narcissist like Trump divides people into two groups.

• People he admire and whose respect and admiration he craves. He gets his "narcissist supply" from their respect. These are people he consider strong - so Putin, Kim, and others like them.
• People he considers weak, so victims or future victims. Trump (and thus his regime) gets his "narcissist supply" from being cruel to them, because they cannot do anything back to him.

Europe's problem - vis a vis Trump - is that he puts them in the second category: as weaklings to be bullied. Attempting to compromise or find common ground or talk things out only compounds the problem.

Anders Puch Nielsen suggests that Europe's best approach with Trump is to demonstrate strength. His proposal is to decisively beat Russia in Ukraine (without American support, presumably), which I think is a good idea.

It was indeed Vexler, saw that video yesterday.

edit: it's not in the video I thought it was, yet I remember seeing it. Bizarre. He did say more or less the same a few days ago (in this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvU3-Cw3YIk) where he mentioned having talked about it a while back.
So odd memory shenanigans, but working out though.

Hah, I also listen to Vrexler, mostly to fall asleep though.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Let's see.

The NATO deployment to Estonia is from the UK, one of the 3 European countries I did list as being capable and willing of self defense.

Latvia's deployment is Canadian, a country with a largely non-functional military that likely could not defend its own borders.

Lithuania's is German, a country focused primarily on leisure and business, and that likely is not willing to fight a real war if it came to it.

Maybe I'm wrong--I'd be happy if I were, but I have very low belief in the backbone of Europe. As Elrond says in Lord of the Rings, "The race of Men is failing. The blood of Númenor is all but spent, its pride and dignity forgotten."