Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

[OttoVonBismarck]

Losing Taiwan would be an irreplaceable loss--their chipmaking industry cannot be replicated elsewhere anywhere without a 15-20 year lag time, and China taking control of it would be a massive geostrategic loss for the U.S. that couldn't really be spun any other way.

[Josquius]

The Taiwanese chip industry is pretty firmly rigged to self destruct and I believe they are already working to replicate it elsewhere too.
Though yes, would be a disaster.

[Jacob]

The Taiwanese chip industry is pretty firmly rigged to self destruct and I believe they are already working to replicate it elsewhere too.
Though yes, would be a disaster.

I wonder how susceptible to subversion the "rigged to self destruct" set-up is.

[Syt]

Except the press conference said she has agreed to run the country as US proxy. Who knows what's true. Most likely is that she IS in Russia and Trump and Putin are going to divide up the country.

AP says the vice president said on TV that she doesn't intend to take over since there's only one president, i.e. Maduro, and demanded his return. TV seems to show pro-Maduro content. There's reports of pro and anti Maduro protests.

So as of yet unclear how US intends to "run the country" for the moment.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yeah, the VP's comments put to rest the theory that she was in on this. It's still possible someone in the military broke and gave intel / helped facilitate Maduro being lightly defended. But unlikely there's going to be some quick Venezuelan capitulation to U.S. demands, which largely puts us back to where were before.

Trump could simply consider the arrest of Maduro his "win" and move on, but if he doesn't--there's not really an off ramp where he won't lose face if he keeps making demands and the VP / new government continue to defy him.

[Bauer]

Why would Russia even be in a position to bargain on Venezuela?  I think it's more likely this is an (attempted) return to America using Latin America as its backyard.

Trump's just-issued National Security Policy statement has this goal. MAGA wants to withdraw from the Indo-Pacific and NATO and focus on the Monroe Doctrine and overturning democracy in Europe.

That sounds like confirmation of what people have been saying about Trumps world view.  A return to a regional sphere of influence world.  Russia over Ukraine? China over Taiwan?

[mongers]

I think there's a significant chance trump will do this, try to topple Maduro.

My reasoning is, trumps in love with all things 1980s, when he felt he was in his prime, so he's deluded enough to think he can go one better than G.H.W.Bush and repeat an operation like the 1989 Panama invasion.

Incidentally the 36th anniversary of which is in about 48 hours time. 

Well I was little bit off on the timing, but as Otto also mentioned it's useful to compare this adventure to Panama.

I guess there hasn't been much 'post-conflict' planning and they're just assuming a compliant state government will just appear in a similar way to Panama.

[PJL]

To me, this feels less like regime change and more like an extortion racket.

[HVC]

To me, this feels less like regime change and more like an extortion racket.

But if you're going to extort someone don't they have to stay in power to provide the loot?

[PJL]

To me, this feels less like regime change and more like an extortion racket.

But if you're going to extort someone don't they have to stay in power to provide the loot?

They need to punish someone once in a while to prove their point that they're more than just barking regarding punishment.

[Tonitrus]

It would be macabrely funny if this ends up with another grand jury refusing to indict. 

[Jacob]

My initial thought was that this showed the world that the US can pull off a special operation regime change while Russia cannot.

... but if the US fails to enact an actual regime change then it might turn from a demonstration of power into an embarrassment after all.

Who are the local Venezuelan collaborators who will deliver the oil wealth to US firms?

Who on the US side have the expertise and plan to enact a post-Maduro order that aligns with US interests? The State Dep't? The CIA? The Office of the President? The US Armed Forces? Elon Musk?

There may be people waiting in the wings, and I'm sure there's no shortage of anti-regime emigrants, but can they actually make things happen?

It's still early days if course. We will see.

[grumbler]

Losing Taiwan would be an irreplaceable loss--their chipmaking industry cannot be replicated elsewhere anywhere without a 15-20 year lag time, and China taking control of it would be a massive geostrategic loss for the U.S. that couldn't really be spun any other way.

We may see it that way, but the MAGAts do not.  They think they can buy chips from China as easily as from Taiwan.

[The Minsky Moment]

My initial thought was that this showed the world that the US can pull off a special operation regime change while Russia cannot.

... but if the US fails to enact an actual regime change then it might turn from a demonstration of power into an embarrassment after all.

It's a combination of extraordinary professionalism and capability at the operational and tactical level and complete amateur hour on the strategic level. 

It's starting to look like no one really gave serious thought about what happens after the operation, assuming total success. Hard to imagine that could be possible but increasingly difficult to understand otherwise. And perhaps not hard to imagine given the cast assembled at today's press conference: Hegseth, Rubio, Ratcliffe, Miller.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Unlike in Trump 1, Trump 2 has made sure none who would ever speak negative about any Trumpian idea are anywhere near the seat of power. This idea would have been proposed, and no dissent or even "what about" would have occurred. In Trump 1 you would have at least had guys like Gen. McMaster saying "okay so what do we do once we get Maduro back and his Generals and his political allies still maintain all of the same policies?"

It is more government by Tweet mentality which dominates how Trump functions and, I suspect, how his mind truly works at an innate level.