The Population Decline Thread

[Valmy]

Is population decline really a problem? Given how much resources we are taking from the planet, it wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing if there are fewer people globally anyway.

The issue is it is a cliff and not a gentle slope. Decline is the wrong word to describe what is coming. Collapse would be a better description.

Some countries are going to lose between half and two thirds of their workforce.

Disagree, the dangers of population decline has been overstated. It's not going to be a cliff edge. Too many people are going with the far right narrative that population is going to collapse, which they are using it as a reason to ban abortion, the pill etc and woman's rights in general.

The only person I have seen making this argument for this reason is Elon Musk and it is about not educating women. I haven't heard the anti-abortion crowd get much traction with a pro-natalist argument.

[Valmy]

I don't see much evidence denying abortion increases overall birth rate anyway. Having unwanted children probably reduces future fertility.

[Josquius]

Population decline on a global level is a good thing.
There are indeed too many people in the world and we could do with dropping a few billion.

The trouble is we live in a world of competition where one nations population declining more than another can really shift the balance of power.

[Valmy]

Population decline on a global level is a good thing.
There are indeed too many people in the world and we could do with dropping a few billion.

The trouble is we live in a world of competition where one nations population declining more than another can really shift the balance of power.

Well that won't be a source of trouble since everybody seems to be declining at the same time.

I disagree it is a good thing. I think population stabilization or maybe a slow decline would be ideal.

But it is certainly better than the opposite problem.

[Grey Fox]

As we mentioned in a different thread with the rich top 20% representing now over 50% of spending there is no more need for a vast middle class.

[crazy canuck]

Well that won't be a source of trouble since everybody seems to be declining at the same time.

Actually the one of the big issues is that the population collapse (stop calling it a decline  ) will affect some countries far worse than others.

[grumbler]

"Population collapse" 

There will certainly be significant adjustment issues as population grow slows and declines, but those are likely to be manageable. In fact, such declines will likely force countries to focus on improving the conditions and opportunities for such smaller generations so as to maintain an adequate GDP per capita.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, it's hilarious that the workforces of developed countries will reduce by about half while old farts continue to demand ever greater services. It's going to be great fun.

[Valmy]

It's going to be great. I cannot wait for retirement.

Glad I had three kids. Hopefully one will take me in.

[grumbler]

Yeah, it's hilarious that the workforces of developed countries will reduce by about half while old farts continue to demand ever greater services. It's going to be great fun.

But that won't happen for another 150+ years (on current trends), so getting worked up about it seems silly to me. The potential labor force in Europe will decline from the current 58% of the population to 50% in the next 75 years. Declining to 30% will take a long time. You will never see it, nor your children or grandchildren (etc).

We have no idea what the world will be like in 100 years, or whether anyone will be working as we think of it.

[grumbler]

It's going to be great. I cannot wait for retirement.

Glad I had three kids. Hopefully one will take me in.

The effect of population decline will not be apparent in your lifetime, and will be drowned out by other effects in your grandchildren's time.